The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 15

Agenda

1. Towards Projecting DFS Ownership Rates
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Bergman, Tucker, Rickard
5. Factor Grid

1. Towards Projecting DFS Ownership Rates

Vincent Velasquez was the king of DFS yesterday. I thought I was making a semi-popular play when I chose him for my rosters. He was picked by over one-third of FanDuel owners. I didn’t field a DraftKings roster, but I’ve heard tell of an over-90 percent ownership rate. I was really counting on something in the 12.5 to 17.5 percent range.

While talking with a few DFS folks, it seems that nobody is using a scientific process to estimate player ownership rates. While Velasquez was still the top play – nobody offered better bang for the buck – it’s nice to know when to dodge the crowd. Despite scoring 180 FD points (60 under the old points system), I barely cashed.

The best advice from a general query of Twitter was “watch who touts recommend.” I’d like to build something a little more sophisticated. For one, I really don’t like letting others influence my decisions. I keep up on DFS strategy, but I try to avoid pick ’em posts from others.

Here’s what I need:

• A data set with ownership rates
• For pitchers, some proxy of opponent strength (wRC+ by handedness?)
• For hitters, some proxy of pitcher quality (FIP by handedness?)

If anybody has ideas on where to solve the first bullet, I may be able to handle the latter two on my own. To be clear, do not expect me to get anywhere with this in the near future. I still have to put the GB/FB post together!

2. Daily DFS – Volquez, Ross

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Rockies are visiting the Cubs for the Cheese Stands Alone game of the day. Moving on…

Late: Lo – a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner rematch. It seems like these guys face each other a dozen times per season. Other aces include Chris Sale versus the Rays, Dallas Keuchel opposite the Tigers, and Zack Greinke at San Diego. Love the Sale matchup, but Greinke is $1,600 cheaper. Remember the Friars have now scored one total run outside of Coors Field. Carlos Martinez is another solid ace play.

In the normal starter price band, you’ll find Edinson Volquez for $8,100 (FD). He’s looked pretty sharp, and he will face a beatable Athletics offense. Volquez’s velocity is up slightly. Oakland has contributed the third worst offense versus right-handed pitching (tiny sample).

Shaving another $900 off the price tag brings us to Joe Ross. I’m one of his top detractors as I just don’t see a starter’s repertoire. The Phillies offense doesn’t do much of anything. Ross could repeat his seven inning, five strikeout win from week one.

If you don’t mind a low strikeout rate, Cody Anderson is exceedingly cheap. He’s against the Mets, a team that I ranted about yesterday. I don’t have much respect for their offense, but you’ll need some big offensive performances to make Anderson work in DFS.

Stack Targets: Tim Melville, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Martin Perez, Williams Perez, Tommy Milone, Rick Porcello, Rich Hill, R.A. Dickey, Nate Karns

3. SaberSim Observations

New column alert – Matt Hunter will join us on a daily basis to supply the best SaberSim plays. I’ll probably continue to supply my own observations for now. Behold.

Oh howdy there Kershaw, Sale, Greinke, and C-Mart. Fancy seeing you here atop the SaberSim leaderboard. The system likes Wei-Yin Chen versus the Braves. Normally, I’d agree. I’m worried about the two mph velocity drop he showed in his first outing. Keuchel has a mid-tier projection and the third highest price. After struggling with command through his first two starts, he looks like a poor value.

The Astros stack is the top play. Red Sox hitters also rate highly. After those two lineups, the remainder of the SaberSim top 30 is a mixture of the best hitters around the league. Left-handed Mets are rated surprisingly high.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Bergman, Tucker, Rickard

Pitchers to Start: I don’t put any credence into home/away splits beyond the normal small effects. So when Tom Koehler posts a 4.50 ERA on the road and a 3.50 ERA at home, I ignore it. Perhaps you wish to incorporate that information.

I do care about matchups. The Braves are all kinds of terrible. Koehler should have a good shot at a win.

Also consider: Josh Tomlin, Erasmo Ramirez, Jon Niese

Pitchers to Exploit: I know the Rockies have trouble attracting pitching talent, but what the hell is Christian Bergman still doing on this roster? And why is he making a start against the Cubs? This is going to be a disaster.

Also consider: CC Sabathia, John Danks, Taylor Jungmann, Justin Verlander, Collin McHugh, Bud Norris, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): The Astros want Evan Gattis to catch which is good news for Preston Tucker. He should continue to draw DH starts against right-handed pitching. Verlander occasionally forgets that he doesn’t throw 100 mph anymore.

Also consider: Jake Lamb, Jon Jay, Scooter Gennett, John Jaso, Steve Pearce, Jed Lowrie, Tommy La Stella, Joe Mauer, Franklin Gutierrez

Hitters (speed): Should Joey Rickard be the Orioles leadoff man? No. Is he, in fact, populating that very role? Yes. Anybody with a modicum of skill is a multi-hit threat against Colby Jack.

Also consider: Socrates Brito, Cory Spangenberg, Jonathan Villar or Yadiel Rivera, Brandon Guyer, Coco Crisp, Leonys Martin

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.