The Daily Grind: DFS, Streamers, and More for April 13

Agenda

1. Unpopular Thoughts on Soler
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velasquez, Latos, Kike, Lopes (Taylor)
5. Factor Grid

1. Unpopular Thoughts on Soler

In several very different leagues, owners are shopping Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler. In each case, the owner in question wants some kind of haul. Gerrit Cole was mentioned in a 20-team, 45-player dynasty. A challenge trade for Gregory Polanco was requested of me in another league.

Perhaps I should have known better than to even ask. Soler has a hint of interesting upside, but I see more Justin Maxwell than Randal Grichuk in his profile. Were it not for the name brand value, he would be bouncing on and off the waiver wire eight times a season.

Soler earned his name brand during an impressive 97 plate appearance 2014. He hit .292/.330/.573. Since then, he hasn’t managed half as much power while still struggling with walks and strikeouts. He’s only 24 so there is time for him to get his act together. With lousy defense and all those strikeouts, I have trouble forecasting a positive scenario for him.

To emphasize, he could still become a good player. Anybody can break out. Jose friggin Bautista broke out to become one of the best players of our era. Do you remember how godawful terrible he used to be? My point is, barring an unforeseeable breakout, Soler looks like a fourth (or sixth) outfielder.

2. Daily DFS – Conley, Rodon, Eickhoff

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Three games are early. Taijaun Walker is the most competent pitcher in the time slot. He’s opposed by mucho exploitable A.J. Griffin. The Rangers starter is both homer prone and not particularly good. A Seattle stack should be popular.

Speaking of homer prone, Matt Shoemaker will be starting against the bargain bin A’s. I’ve tried a couple A’s stacks this year without success. Eric Surkamp is on the other side of this one, and he’s also an exploit.

I don’t know what to make of Logan Verrett versus Adam Conley. They’re both against a lame offense. I prefer the Conley side of the equation. If I play this time slot, he’s probably my guy.

Stack Targets: Griffin, Shoemaker, Surkamp

Late: The other 12 games fall into the late bucket. Of course you will pay $11,200 on FanDuel for Stephen Strasburg against the Braves. It’s a bargain, right? That’s what I thought about Max Scherzer, and they ruined his night. Perhaps you should go for a more affordable pitcher.

If by “more affordable,” you only want an extra $1,000, then go with Carlos Carrasco. The Cy Young candidate is opposite the hyper-aggressive Rays. They’re going to be a regularly exploitable offense for pitchers with deep repertoires.

The Twins are quickly becoming a top offense to target due to a ridiculous strikeout rate. Carlos Rodon is inconsistent and rarely throws more than six innings. Tonight is as good a time as any to hope for seven innings and 10 strikeouts.

Down in the bargain bin, you’ll find Jerad Eickhoff. I talk about pitchers who will work into the seventh inning because it increases the chance of a win. Eickhoff has enough leash to pitch until he’s tired. His command isn’t what it was last season so you’re mostly playing the matchup against the lowly Padres.

For a few hundred less, Chase Anderson is a better pitcher than Eickhoff but also has to solve a tougher lineup (Cardinals).

Stack Targets: Jordan Lyles, Colin Rea, Ryan Vogelsong, Shane Greene, Matt Wisler, Jake Peavy, Phil Hughes, Scott Feldman

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim likes Strasburg, Carrasco, and John Lackey. No surprises there. Alex Wood rated number two is a shock, as is Eickhoff at number four. If either pitcher pitches to their projection, they’ll be a huge value. Unfortunately, I view both projections as upside rather than median performance.

When there’s a Coors game, there are Coors stacks. The Giants and Rockies will be rightfully popular tonight with two exploitable pitchers on the mound. The Astros appear to possess the third string stack, and there’s always Mike Trout at the top of the pile.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velasquez, Latos, Kike, Lopes (Taylor)

Pitchers to Start: Technically speaking, Vincent Velasquez is already a couple points beyond my usual ownership threshold. But I don’t want to write about big Erv so here are some words about Velasquez instead.

A matchup against the anemic Padres is always desirable. They’ve been shut out in four of five games outside of Coors Field. My men’s league team wouldn’t get shut out at Coors. Scoring runs there doesn’t count. The Padres don’t just have limp bats, they strike out too.

Command and efficiency are not Velasquez’s strong suit. It’s why some analysts believe he could end up in the bullpen. For now, I see him as a better Wily Peralta or Aaron Sanchez. The stuff exists to be a regular asset. It’s up to his command to get the most out of the repertoire.

Also consider: Ervin Santana, Ian Kennedy

Pitchers to Exploit: I was all in against Mat Latos last week and the Athletics made him look like an actual major league pitcher. Don’t be fooled by one outing. Latos had good movement on his pitches, but his command and control were flaky at best. He was also working at Bartolo speed. The Twins may be strikeout prone, but they should put plenty in play against Latos.

Also consider: Wily Peralta, Matt Cain, Jorge de la Rosa, Julio Teheran, Tanner Roark, Nate Eovaldi, Doug Fister

Hitters (power): Kike Hernandez bats leadoff for the Dodgers when facing a lefty. L.A. faces Robbie Ray tomorrow. Hernandez isn’t a bomber, but he does have a career .246 ISO versus southpaws (only 128 PA).

Also consider: Howie Kendrick, Trayce Thompson, Jake Lamb, Ben Paulsen, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Joe Mauer

Hitters (speed): I didn’t realize the Nationals hired Davey Lopes as their base running instructor. Where Lopes goes, stolen bases follow in droves. OBP black hole Michael Taylor continues to bat leadoff for the Nats. He has trouble reaching base, but he’s an excellent steal threat when he does manage to find his way aboard. He already has two steals in only four opportunities.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Mallex Smith, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

A couple cold games and it might thunderstorm in Houston (they have a roof). Everybody should play sans delay.

The Link.

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