The Daily Grind: Dario Danger

by
August 30, 2019

Once again, I ask: to Coors or not to Coors?

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Uniqueness

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Although I considered Robert Dugger to be playable, I didn’t think he’d outperform Jacob deGrom. MJA2112 used Dugger and an assortment of solid bats en route to first AND second place. That’s how you charge up the standings. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a 14-game hootenanny on FantasyDraft.

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2. Weather Reports

St. Louis has around a 50 percent chance for light rain throughout the entire evening. Could put a damper on the festivities…

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Shane Bieber is good and all, but I dunno about paying $23,300 for a visit to Tampa Bay. On the plus side, a win is fairly likely since Austin Pruitt is lined up as the bulk innings guy (not sure if he’s straight starting or following an opener). Bieber is as likely as anybody to lead the slate in pitcher production, but it still feels like he should be about $2,000 cheaper.

Aaron Nola ($22,100) is also running just a tad hot for my liking. He’ll host Zack Wheeler ($18,100) at the Citizen’s Bank Bandbox. The venue and the hot-ish opponent have me wishing Nola was around $20,000. As with Bieber, this is a viable play. So too is Wheeler despite his ugly stretch of three consecutive disasters. I don’t see any obvious signs of injury or change in approach. Two of those starts came against the Braves. Wheeler will likely have low ownership – perhaps as low as 0% in TDGI.

Trevor Bauer has traded gems and disasterpieces since joining the Reds. He’ll visit a middling Cardinals offense today. For $20,600, I’m thinking he’s about…drum roll… $2,000 too expensive. I’m noticing a trend. Once again, even though he’s not a value in my eyes, he’s still plenty usable. Dakota Hudson ($17,500) is on a roll, although I worry about certain fly ball hitters in the Reds offense.

Dinelson Lamet ($20,500) is visiting hidden Madison Bumgarner ($19,800). While the Padres offense is solid against left-handed pitchers, I prefer the Bummy side of the equation. As always, Oracle Park is a boon for pitchers. Neither the Giants nor Padres offenses are particularly toothy. Lamet should probably still cost $2,000 $4,000 less.

Sigh. Wade Miley ($19,700) is $2,000 overpriced. It’s the lack of strikeouts. A win bonus is likely opposite the Blue Jays.

Finally, somebody par value! Kyle Gibson ($18,700) would usually be too expensive at this price point, but he also isn’t usually facing a Double-A quality offense. To be clear, that description only applies to the Tigers. The win bonus is all but assured (which is to say he has around a 45 percent chance to nab it).

Anibal Sanchez ($17,200) is par value too thanks to a matchup against the best Triple-A lineup in the majors. This time we’re talking about the Marlins. I’ve been settling into a modestly profitable habit of starting whoever faces the Tigers and Marlins. It saddens me to share this moneymaking technique*, but it’s too damned obvious to leave in my pocket.

*One of reasons I play small stakes is so I don’t have an incentive to hide ideas/strategies/tactics/etc. from you.

Marco Gonzales ($16,200) is a passable mid-tier pitcher. The southpaw is visiting The Glob during the dog days of summer. It’s usually among the most hitter friendly venues around now. Kolby Allard ($14,900) is usually a stack target, but the Mariners offense is no great shakes. Allard has enough strikeout stuff to cross the 20 point plateau without it being an extreme outcome.

I want to want Tony Gonsolin ($15,500), but I worry too much about a short outing. The Dodgers tend to handle their young, unestablished pitchers with kiddie gloves. He’s visiting Arizona.

Max Fried ($15,000) has a savory matchup against an aggressive White Sox offense. They’re a low walk, high strikeout offense. Several of their hitters are ground ball guys which further favors a ground ball pitcher like Fried. A pretty normal outcome for this matchup would look like six innings, seven strikeouts, and three runs. C’est une bargaine.

Favorite Plays: Bumgarner, Gibson, Sanchez, Fried

Stack Targets: Pruitt, Trent Thornton, Edwin Jackson, Nate Eovaldi, Jose Suarez, Elieser Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Brett Anderson, Dario Agrazal, Antonio Senzatela

Daario Naharis at Coors Field. It’s gonna be a bleeder.

4. SaberSim Says…

Bieber, Bauer, Fried, Bumgarner, and Sanchez top the charts. Fried, Sanchez, Bauer, Bumgarner, and Gibson are chillin’ in Valueland. Go (mostly) to Coors for Charlie Blackmon, Yordan Alvarez, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Starling Marte. Use Abraham Toro, Josh Rojas, Chris Owings, Lewis Brinson, and Austin Dean to afford the big guns.

5. Uniqueness

Despite daily claims of the uniqueness of Aquino’s exploits, somebody seems to do this every year. Gary Sanchez, Rhys Hoskins, Matt Olson, etc.

Check out this savvy baserunning by Peripheral Prospect Seth Brown.

They always take these movie franchises way too far. They should have stopped after the wildly successful sequel.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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