The Daily Grind: Corb at the Coors

I’ll be chatting this afternoon at 4:00pm ET. Until then, read this article. Or yesterday’s Peripheral Prospects.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Celebrate

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

MattFrench6 found the winning combination of Nolan Arenado, Jose Abreu, and other effective hitters. His pitchers performed passably, including a scarcely owned J.A. Happ. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a deep pool of games for tonight’s $2, no rake GPP on FantasyDraft. See ya there.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Rain, rain, go away… Oh, it did. It’s a dry day for baseball.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Three games are too early to appear in the main slate. Wave goodbye to Round 1 of the Tigers-Red Sox doubleheader. Sadly, we don’t get to continue our discussion about the merits of Chris Sale relative to other more consistent performers. We also miss out on Matt Boyd, Pablo Lopez, Carlos Carrasco, Kevin Gausman, and Sonny Gray. That’s an interesting batch of pitchers.

We’re left holding… Kenta Maeda… as the priciest arm. He costs $19,300. And next most expensive is his opponent Jose Quintana ($18,500). While I’ve made a few bucks with Quintana this year, I’ll pass on using him against the Dodgers. It’s worth noting it’ll be a chilly and probably pitcher friendly evening in Chicago. I’d like Maeda if he cost $2,000 less. His consistently short outings put a damper on his upside.

Zach Eflin ($17,600) is visiting Zack Wheeler ($15,500) in the battle of the Zachks. Are you team H or team K? Eflin is a fairly bland command and control type who is hopelessly overpriced tonight. The only reason to use him is contrarianism. Wheeler is reasonably priced. He just fired off a seven inning, 14.95 point loss against a slightly stouter version of the Phillies lineup. They’re banged up enough to consider this play.

I’d love Pat Corbin ($17,000) at sea level against the Rockies. Honestly, I might still love this. The wet blanket is, of course, Coors Field. It negatively affects slider movement. As we know, Corbin lives and dies by his slider. The Rockies seem to have some issues with left-handed (and right-handed) pitchers. I’m honestly tempted, especially if I later decide he’ll be unpopular.

Most of the more expensive pitchers seem to cancel one another out. Betting either side of Luke Weaver ($15,900) at Trevor Williams ($15,900) is a relatively safe play – perfect for 50/50 style contests. Neither lineup is fearsome and the pitcher friendly venue is attractive. In terms of expectations tonight, Williams carries a much higher floor while Weaver has the higher ceiling.

Erik Swanson ($15,400) arose from the abyss, dripping rancid salts and fetid waters. He is perhaps the most interesting pitcher to spontaneously appear in the majors this season, non-Chris Paddack division. His over-reliance on a high 92 mph fastball suggests we could see some blips, especially against a ground ball focused offense. The Padres, however, tend to skew towards fly balls.

What’s Frankie Montas ($14,600) doing all the way down here? He has a clean path to the win bonus, the stuff to rack up over a strikeout per inning, and he’s consistently working six frames. I have a chalky taste in my mouth…

Others who interest me in a more general sense include Jeff Samardzija, Spencer Turnbull, Trent Thornton, Jonathan Loaisiga, Homer Bailey, and Wade Miley. Bailey in particular is exceptionally cheap and appears to be in the midst of a pitch usage breakout. He’s still very homer prone though.

Favorite Plays: Montas, Weaver, Williams

Stack Targets: Chad Bettis, Chris Stratton, Hector Velazquez, Ivan Nova, Andrew Cashner, Michael Pineda, Nick Margevicius, Daniel Ponde de Leon

4. SaberSim Says…

Wheeler, Corbin, Maeda, Quintana, and Williams are the favorites of SaberSim. I guess FDraft got the pricing mostly right. The top values include Wheeler, Corbin, Thornton, Lance Lynn, and Stratton. I’ll pass on that last name – even at home against a much-diminished Yankees offense.

Guess where we’re going for hitters? Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Trout, and Adam Eaton all have one thing in common: they’re either at Coors Field or they’re Mike Trout. Bargain hunters should try Chris Davis (uh, maybe not), Zimmerman, Ben Zobrist, Garrett Hampson, or Zack Cozart.

5. Celebrate

Jonathan Lucroy celebrates the NFL draft following a Just Enough home run.

Yes, Mark Reynolds is somehow in the major leagues. Guy must have the best agent. He’s looking svelte these days. And he still does this.

Pretty.