The Daily Grind: Coors Field or Windy Wrigley?

Today’s contest features Coors Field and a windy Wrigley. Which will you choose? Or is the correct answer always the Secret Door #3: The Houston Astros?

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TOOTBLAN?

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Last Friday, I went to bed in line for the victory. Congrats to antigonist (and two others) for sprinting past me in the dead of the night. Despite zero points from Yasiel Puig, the rest of the roster pulled together, led by Mike Trout’s contest-best 40 points. Leaderboard.

You know the drill, we have a $2 no rake GPP on FantasyDraft. See ya there.

2. Weather Reports

St. Louis has light rain in the forecast – the kind that should invoke no worse than brief delays. They might simply play through it. Meanwhile, in Chicago, the wind is blowing out at a brisk 15 mph.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

We have 10 games on the docket tonight. Luis Castillo ($23,200) is the priciest pumpkin in the patch. The aforementioned wind – combined with his lofty price and the Cubs fearsome lineup – are more than enough to scare me away. I’d be more keen about Castillo if he were around $19,500. I’ll pass on Kyle Hendricks ($18,400) too as he’s simply a poor value in these conditions.

Next priciest is Lucas Giolito ($21,100), and I have to admit I find it to be a very tempting price. He’ll face Jakob Junis which only improves the likelihood of earning the win bonus. We’re looking at something like six innings, six strikeouts, and half a win with upside for a contest-leading outing. That said, Giolito has recently drank the heady brew of regression. Over his last four outings, he’s averaged fewer than five frames per appearance.

Clayton Kershaw ($20,400) has landed in Philadelphia. It feels like he’ll probably allow three solo home runs around an otherwise decent DFS point total. I’d be very hesitant to use him in ottoneu, but I don’t see much reason to stay away in DFS. Zach Eflin ($16,100) should cost $11,000 versus the Dodgers. He’s a decent enough mid-tier guy most nights. This is a nightmare scenario.

Blake Snell ($19,800) is visiting James Paxton ($17,700) at the Bomberpad. The Rays offense has a touch of trouble against left-handed pitching. Paxton’s most recent outing was an 11 strikeout performance against these same Rays. It’ll take some backbone is use Snell against the homertastic Yankees offense. Both pitchers slumped through late-June before rebounding just ahead of the ASB.

Why does Josh James cost $17,900? I mean, I know in a general sense, but come on. He’s going to throw a couple innings before giving way to, uh, *checks notes. Well, I have no idea. Every site I checked just says James is starting. That’s MAX four innings. Probably two. He wouldn’t be a good play at this price against the Angels even if he was making an unconstrained start. On the plus side (for the Astros pitchers), Mike Trout is probably out with a minor calf injury. The baseball gods weep.

Joe Musgrove ($11,000) appears to be back on track. After a dreadful stretch from early-May through mid-June, he’s piled together four nice outings. Additionally, the Cardinals offense is no great shakes these days. This looks like the bargain we all crave. Max Fried ($14,500) in Milwaukee, Rick Porcello ($13,000) hosting the Blue Jays, and even Adam Plutko ($15,300) versus the Tigers are other viable cheapos.

Favorite Plays: Giolito, Snell, Paxton, Musgrove

Stack Targets: Junis, Eflin, Griffin Canning

I usually think about using Canning for his strikeouts. Not against the Astros.

4. SaberSim Says…

Kershaw, Paxton, Castillo, Hendricks, and Junis are the top rated pitchers. I suppose it’s Junis’ 8.29 K/9 which are driving his projection and not the horrific 5.33 ERA. Musgrove, Daniel Norris, Junis, Fried, and Paxton are the best values. I didn’t mention Norris because he’s, well, not good. But neither is the Indians offense.

Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Cody Bellinger, and Mookie Betts are the premium bats. Yep, it’s a Coors Field day. Just beware random benchings. It’s also the second half of a doubleheader. Tyler White, Robel Garcia, Bubba Starling, Christin Stewart, and Guillermo Heredia are the bargains du jour. We sure are scrapping the barrel…

5.TOOTBLAN?

TOOTBLAN

TOOTBLAN

I love watching Altuve hit.