The Daily Grind: Castellanos, Severino, Ross, Rusney

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Castellanos
2. Daily DFS – Anderson, Severino
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ross, Lorenzen, Young, Rusney
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Castellanos

Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos has been swinging a hot stick. His season line is thoroughly unimpressive, but he’s upped the ante recently. Since his hot streak began on June 23, he’s slashed .291/.345/.535 with seven home runs, two triples, and six doubles in 139 plate appearances. I asked resident swing expert Dan Farnsworth what he thought about Castellanos’s surge.

I see a big difference from last year to this year. He’s always had fantastic hands, but now he’s a lot smoother with his stride and lower half in general, allowing him to sync up his hands to his hips better. If you watch his stride, he’s staying balanced as he picks up his leg now, rather than last year where it looked like his back hip collapsed as his front leg came up. As a result, his hips look much more efficient driving through the ball rather than seeming to spin around his front leg like last year. Looks like he’s just doing it more consistently now than he was earlier this year.

Swing alone is not enough to recommend a player – Mike Zunino taught us that back in week one. However, it’s an encouraging sign to see improvements from this once highly touted prospect. He’s a great add in dynasty and other deep leagues.

2. Daily DFS – Anderson, Severino

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The early group is a fun collection of four games. What I like is that none of the pitchers are an obvious start. You’ll have to roll the dice on somebody. Do you take Danny Salazar against an offense that likes fly ball pitchers? What about Hector Santiago on the other side of the matchup? Or maybe Wei-Yin Chen is the play. In all cases, you’re looking at modest expected production.

Late: The remaining 11 games offer a few top pitching choices. Madison Bumgarner, Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, and Carlos Martinez are all attractive (and expensive) picks.

There are two potential bargains to target. The first is Brett Anderson versus the Phillies. Philadelphia actually has a nifty stack for left-handed pitchers as Alex Wood can attest. However, Anderson usually lasts six or seven innings without allowing many runs. He doesn’t pile up the strikeouts, but he’ll get a few. I anticipate about 10 to 14 FanDuel points. He’s better suited to cash games since he’s a safe play.

The riskier bargain is Luis Severino. In addition to performance uncertainty, big name prospects are usually handled carefully. It’s hard to expect more than five innings out of Severino. He has the stuff to strikeout a batter per inning. Assuming the Yankees can beat up Steven Wright, Severino should post between nine and 13 FanDuel points. There is upside for as many as 18 points.

Stack Targets: Chris Rusin, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Rodon, Steven Wright, Rubby de la Rosa, Aaron Harang, Jeff Locke, Tyler Duffey, Matt Boyd, Williams Perez, David Holmberg, Nick Martinez

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

There are 26 names to be had today. Below are my favorites.

Kole Calhoun, Chris Ianetta, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and David DeJesus v Danny Salazar
Adam Lind and Ryan Braun v Ian Kennedy
Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie v Wei-Yin Chen
Billy Hamilton and Todd Frazier v Carlos Martinez
Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier v Aaron Harang
Carlos Santana v Hector Santiago
Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, Robbie Grossman, and Evan Gattis v Nick Martinez

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ross, Lorenzen, Young, Rusney

Pitchers to Start: Joe Ross wasn’t supposed to be this good. He has a 3.00 ERA, 9.23 K/9, and 0.92 BB/9 over 39 innings (six starts). His PITCHf/x data is…odd. The scouting report on Ross includes a 65 grade fastball and a 50 grade slider. The actual results depict a 50 grade fastball and an 75 grade slider. His breaking ball has induced a whiff in roughly half of all swings (49.58 percent). All of his four pitches have produced at least forty percent more ground balls than fly balls.

There are a few cracks in the foundation. Like many starting pitchers, his sinker has done the most harm. All three of his home runs allowed have come off that pitch. His change has also produced bad results including a .467 average and .600 slug. In both cases, we’re dealing with tiny samples.

Also consider: Kyle Gibson

Pitchers to Exploit: There’s no shortage of exploit targets tomorrow. Reds starter Michael Lorenzen throws hard. That’s the extent of his talent. His 4.80 ERA looks lucky to me given his 6.30 K/9 and 5.02 BB/9. A lack of command and strikeout stuff is a twin death knell, especially for a pitcher who makes his home at Great American Ball Park. He’s opposed by the Cardinals.

Also consider: David Buchanan, Yordano Ventura, Odrisamer Despaigne, Matt Garza, CC Sabathia, Jose Urena, Matt Wisler, Scott Feldman, Aaron Brooks

Hitters (power): Chris Young likes lefties. He’s hitting .371/.432/.695 against southpaws this season with a .395 BABIP. He also likes fly ball pitchers (.832 OPS). Unfortunately, Eduardo Rodriguez is only one of those things – he’s a lefty. Start Young anyway.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Chris Young, Scooter Gennett, Yonder Alonso, Andre Ethier

Hitters (speed): I expected big things from Rusney Castillo this season. Instead, he floundered in the majors. He was most recently recalled on July 27. Since then, he’s batting .385/.407/.577 with the help of a .409 BABIP. He’s also stolen two bases. John Farrell says he looks more comfortable this time. Maybe that’s just a talking point, but this was a guy who looked like a stud heading into the season. Perhaps he’s ready to contribute to fantasy teams.

Also consider: Jace Peterson, Will Venable, Anthony Gose, Jarrod Dyson

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It looks like a dry day. Dry days are good.

The Link.

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