The Daily Grind: Call Ups, Aces, Byrd

Agenda

1. Notable Call Ups
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Boyd, Byrd, Tomlinson
6. Factor Grid

1. Notable Call Ups

Teams have called up the first wave of reinforcements. The second wave will arrive in about a week when the minor league season ends. For now, I’m merely going to list the most interesting call ups with a very short comment. These are the guys who should have some kind of regular role.

• Zach Davies – debuts today
• Javier Baez – look to see him split time at second as they figure out who will man the keystone in the postseason
• Joey Gallo – might not start as much as we’d like
• Rob Refsnyder – should start regularly; might not
• Matt Moore – could be a late inning alternative to Jake McGee
• Dalton Pompey – may work his way into a starting role; don’t count on it
• Miguel Castro – could get a shot at closing a couple games despite tepid numbers
• Hector Olivera – should start regularly at third base

There will be more call ups in the next couple weeks. If you’re favorite team is doing something wonky but predictable with playing time, let me know. I can’t closely monitor all 30 teams this time of year.

2. Daily DFS – Aces

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Marlins and Braves are off on their own with a 12:10 ET start. Scratch them off your list.

Three games begin in the mid-afternoon and form the early contest. You could honestly use all six pitchers – Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, Raisel Iglesias, Jason Hammel, Andrew Heaney, and Henry Owens. They’re all appropriately priced on FanDuel for their matchups. Pick your ideal lineup first then go with whichever pitcher fits.

Late: Five aces hold court, but only one of them can be called a safe pick. It’s a shame that Clayton Kershaw is completely unaffordable. Matt Harvey is on an innings limit. The club wanted to cut him off at 185 to 195 innings. He’s already at 160 frames. He’ll get to his soft cap even before the postseason rolls around. Something is wrong with Max Scherzer. Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir are fine. Michael Wacha also begs your attention.

The view from the cheap seats isn’t pretty. Where do you roll the dice? Regression candidate Aaron Nola is the best of the bad choices. I could see him outlasting Harvey if not outdueling him. Who else could you use? Jeff Locke versus the lame Brewers? Kevin Gausman against the Rays? Mike Leake opposite Kershaw? I think I’ll stick with an ace.

Stack Targets: Davies, Jon Gray, Chase Anderson, Randy Wolf, Locke, Tommy Milone, Erasmo Ramirez

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 33 listed today courtesy of Mr. Zimmerman and my flawless transcribing.

Salvador Perez v Randy Wolf
Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa v Taijuan Walker
Ben Revere, Russell Martin v Trevor Bauer
Nick Castellanos v Yordano Ventura
Rougned Odor, Will Venable v Ian Kennedy
Brayan Pena, Joey Votto v Jason Hammel
Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu v Tommy Milone

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: This is an easy one. Harvey dominated in his last outing and was still only allowed to pitch six innings. He probably won’t reach 7.1 frames tonight. It’s not SaberSim’s fault for whiffing. The projection would be correct under normal circumstances.

Right: Erasmo Ramirez has enjoyed a successful season. The Rays active bullpen management certainly plays a role in said success. He’s unlikely to finish six innings on any given night, and SaberSim has taken notice. The result is a reduced chance for a win, few innings, and few strikeouts. That’s all before we talk about an iffy matchup with the Orioles.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Boyd, Byrd, Tomlinson

Pitchers to Start: It’s a Thin Thursday with only six games. As such, I’ve relaxed my ownership standards for tomorrow. If you absolutely must use a waiver wire pitcher – and some of you are in exactly that position – below are the four names that might be available and usable. If you can, take a pass on pitching. Pick up some offense instead. Perhaps a right-handed Giant or two.

Also consider: Kyle Gibson, Jeff Samardzija, Taylor Jungmann, Edinson Volquez

Pitchers to Exploit: I fully expect to throw a dollar at Matt Boyd in multiple leagues next year – much as I did with Carlos Martinez, Kendall Graveman, and Jesse Hahn this year (one of those worked out much better than the others). Boyd has shown decent swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s also worked in the strike zone too often. Between a high fly ball rate and an elevated HR/FB ratio, he’s suffered through some ugly innings. I’m not hopeful about his start in Kansas City.

Also consider: Matt Wisler, Chris Rusin, Ryan Vogelsong, Colin Rea, Mat Latos

Hitters (power): Marlon Byrd is the Grade-A selection for tomorrow. He has 22 home runs on the season despite missing a big chunk of time. He’s just three short of the career high he set last season. It’s not entirely inconceivable that he may reach 25 bombs tomorrow. Damned unlikely, but not inconceivable. He’s opposed by Rusin at Coors Field.

Also consider: Andre Ethier, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Yonder Alonso, Ben Paulsen, Jonny Gomes, Michael Taylor, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks

Hitters (speed): I’ve been seeing Kelby Tomlinson leave the waiver wire in some leagues. I’m confused. Sure, he’s starting in Joe Panik’s absence. He’s even posted a .313/.378/.448 line with a home run (.400 BABIP). However, he strikes out too often for his no power profile. He stole 57 bases last season and 21 bags this year. As a streaming option at Coors, he’s fine.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Dry Bones.

The Link.

This post is sponsored by Yhency Brazoban.