The Daily Grind: Bullpen Games, Strasburg, Koehler, Wolf

Agenda

1. Bullpen Games
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Wolf, Hicks, Cubs
6. Factor Grid

1. Bullpen Games

With the season winding down, we’re liable to see a few bullpen days before it’s all finished. We already knew Adam Warren was slotted to start today. He hasn’t lasted more than four innings since returning to the rotation. The Yankees are pretty much locked into the first Wild Card with a 4.5 game lead over the Astros. I expect Warren to be lifted after four innings even if he’s pitching well. He’ll serve an important bullpen role in the playoffs.

The real bullpen game is in Boston where lefty Criag Breslow will take the bump. The 35-year-old isn’t stretched out for a start. In fact, he’s never even made a major league start. That’s 522 games with no starts. Three innings would be an absolute ceiling. Given the shaky state of affairs in the Boston bullpen, it’s a good day to load up on Orioles.

Other pitchers who could presage a bullpen game include Tyler Wagner, Robbie Erlin, Kyle Kendrick, and Barry Zito. Starters who won’t last always make great targets, but it’s also smart to use the opposing pitcher due to the likeliness of a win.

2. Daily DFS – Strasburg, Nola, Jaime, Tomlin, Duffey

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: FanDuel splits it three ways today. The three game early crew features six good pitchers. Prepare to throw darts at David Price, Chris Archer, Francisco Liriano, Collin McHugh, Derek Holland, or Jason Hammel. They’re all appropriately priced. Personally, I’d steer clear of Archer and McHugh.

Afternoon: Five games are in the mid-afternoon. Yesterday, Jerad Eickhoff exceeded my wildest expectations with 19 FanDuel points. Aaron Nola is in position to turn the same trick today. Nola is just $6,500 and features a similar floor and ceiling to Eickhoff. He’s opposed by Stephen Strasburg. The star righty has been fantastic over his last three starts and should steamroll the Phillies today. I have a vested interest in rooting against him – a strong Strasburg start could end one of my playoff runs.

As a reminder, I’m not paying $10,000 for innings capped Matt Harvey. If you want a cheaper alternative to Strasburg but don’t believe in the Phillies, try Wei-Yin Chen against Breslow or Tim Hudson opposite Zito.

Late: Felix Hernandez looks like the prize, but he’s risky tonight. After leaving a start with elbow stiffness, the Mariners should be taking it easy on their ace. I anticipate an abbreviated outing. That leaves Jaime Garcia looking mighty tasty at $8,800. With Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and Adam Lind either sidelined or platoon neutralized, Garcia need only survive one hot hitter – Khris Davis.

After clinching the AL pennant, the Royals can queue up some rest for their fatigued regulars. They did so last night, and Carlos Carrasco tossed a complete game, 15 strikeout one-hitter. Josh Tomlin doesn’t have that kind of ceiling, but he could keep the Royals B-team in the yard. Kauffman Stadium should help.

If you want a punt, Tyler Duffey is your guy. He’s reasonably priced at $6,400. It’s unfortunate that he’s opposite the Tigers, but they haven’t been particularly offense-full lately. Duffey recently squared off against Detroit and managed 16.33 FD points.

Stack Targets: John Danks, John Lamb, Zito, Breslow, Kendrick, Erlin, Wagner, Justin Nicolino, Brett Anderson, Alfredo Simon

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

As Michael Bolton said, let’s get to it:

Salvador Perez v Josh Tomlin
Justin Bour, Christian Yelich v Julio Teheran
C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, Chris Iannetta, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Erick Aybar v Vidal Nuno
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts v Wei-Yin Chen
Jayson Werth v Aaron Nola
Josh Reddick v Tim Hudson
Matt Duffy, Buster Posey v Barry Zito
Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli v Jason Hammel

4. SaberSim Observations

Well it should be no surprise that SaberSim doesn’t think Nola has a chance against Strasburg. He’s projected almost identically to Eickhoff was yesterday. I’m not saying Strasburg isn’t a favorite. I just don’t think the win as automatic as SaberSim.

The projection system has some confusion about relievers. Kendrick actually has the lowest innings projection. Breslow is tabbed for 5.2 innings (no chance). Wagner might reach his 5.2 inning projection, but I see that as a ceiling. Zito is unlikely to survive over six innings. A 6.1 inning outing from Warren would be a surprise.

Buster Posey is the top rated hitter today. Beware, he’s dealing with a hip. Specifically, discomfort in said hip. Strangely, only a few Dodgers are atop the leaderboard. Jimmy Rollins is ranked third. Howie Kendrick is number four. Those seem like odd representatives. I take it to mean that any Dodgers are worth owning. Duh, they’re against Kendrick at Coors Field.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Wolf, Hicks, Cubs

Pitchers to Start: I don’t usually buy into home/road splits for non-Rockies. I’m not changing that position for Tom Koehler, but I will present the split. He has a 3.12 ERA at home compared to a 4.70 ERA on the road. His career numbers reflect a similar, if slightly smaller, split. More importantly, he’s up against a clumsy Braves lineup.

Also consider: Henry Owens, Chris Heston

Pitchers to Exploit: The dregs are rather plentiful tomorrow. Let’s talk about Randy Wolf. He’s opposed by a Twins offense that can do damage against southpaws. In six outings, he’s lasted seven innings three times. The other three appearances totaled only 11 frames. A 50 percent chance for a meltdown is pretty darned good.

Also consider: Matt Andriese, Ervin Santana, Keyvius Sampson, Aaron Harang, Martin Perez, Tyler Cravy, Jered Weaver, Sean Nolin, Alex Wood, Chris Rusin

Hitters (power): Think I’ve listed enough power plays below? My favorite is Twins leadoff hitter Aaron Hicks. I suspect I’m going to be personally responsible for increasing his draft price next spring. He’s been particularly good against left-handed pitching with a .305/.371/.505 line. Wolf isn’t the average southpaw.

Also consider: Greg Bird, Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, Trevor Plouffe, Torii Hunter, Kelly Johnson, Michael Conforto, Jonathan Schoop, Steve Pearce, Clint Robinson, Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Brad Miller, Marlon Byrd, Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, A.J. Ellis

Hitters (speed): A.J. Burnett is one of the most stolen base prone pitchers in the league. As such, any freely available Cubs like Javier Baez, Chris Coghlan, or Starlin Castro are worth a look.

Also consider: Anthony Gose, Ketel Marte, Kelby Tomlinson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It should be a dry day. I’ve skipped the weather factors.

The Link.

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