The Daily Grind: Back to the Aces

First Kenley Jansen then Clayton Kershaw. Alex Wood and Rich Hill too. It seems like the Dodgers are passing around a bad case of Velocity Deficiency Syndrome. Only Kenta Maeda is throwing harder…

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Baseball Metas
5. Sho-heave-ho

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to mrchrislevin. A gem from Garrett Richards highlighted a well-rounded performance. Only Welington Castillo and Marcus Semien failed to supply fewer than 14 points. Shoutout to nicemamut for claiming the top spot on the leaderboard.

The aforementioned freeroll will probably begin next Monday. We’ll continue with our usual $2, 25-entry night contest on DraftKings.

2. Weather Reports

Watch out for rain in the two New York games. They’re both 1:00pm ET starts. It looks like it should clear out between 2:00pm and 3:00pm. Probably just a delayed start. The rest of the league is clear, although it’s nearly freezing in Pittsburgh and Detroit.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The six-game early crew is larger than today’s evening slate. I’m almost sad I won’t have time to build a lineup. The New York rain could help scare our rivals away from some of the top arms like Noah Syndergaard ($11,600), Luis Severino ($11,300), and Aaron Nola ($8,500) (also Blake Snell – $6,300). Based on current reports, I think the delayed start is the likeliest outcome. They’re both in-division games so they do have flexibility to reschedule later.

Corey Kluber ($11,100) is also in the slate, and he doesn’t have any rain-related risk. As such, I anticipate an absurd ownership rate. Given his ability to post the top score in any contest, you may wish to use him anyway. Perhaps the Angels offense is fatigued after going wild last night. Tyler Skaggs (7,100) looked good in his season debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep pace with the Indians.

The other available ace is Dallas Keuchel ($10,500). He holds the advantage opposite Dylan Bundy ($6,700) and the Orioles. This isn’t a gimme matchup, but he should be a viable contrarian ace.

My favorite outside of the top arms is Patrick Corbin ($7,300). He’s rock steady solid these days. And it’s a humidor game against a mostly absentee Dodgers offense.

Stack Targets: Daniel Norris, Danny Duffy, Snell, Bundy

Nothing against Snell and Bundy, but they have terrible matchups against the Yankees and Astro respectively. Those are both 120 wRC+ offenses. Norris and Duffy aren’t good, but they are playing each other. Both offenses are terrible and the cold weather could ensure a low scoring contest. In other words, they aren’t automatic stacks.

Main Slate: By comparison, this evening features decidedly normal arms. It’s a five-game slate headlined by Carlos Martinez ($10,200) and a resurgent Johnny Cueto ($9,600). CMart draws the tough Milwaukee offense at Miller Park. After his Opening Day flop, I’m looking elsewhere. I’m more than willing to try Cueto at home versus the Mariners.

I was hoping to see a lower price tag on Felix Hernandez ($8,800). His offspeed stuff is still effective enough to survive a limp offense like the Giants. Especially at AT&T Park. Alas, for $8,800, he’s an inefficient gamble.

Jon Gray ($8,500) visiting Petco Park? Yes please. His opponent, Clayton Richard ($5,600) always seems to handle the Rockies – at least when I’m watching.

I have my eye on Aaron Sanchez ($7,800). I expect big things this year. He’ll face the White Sox. They look like they’re analogous to the 2017 Brewers – huge strikeout and power potential.

Stack Targets: Carson Fulmer, Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Doug Fister

I remember when I thought Fulmer would be good. There’s still some room for growth, but the entire package looked busted last year.

4. Baseball Metas

Yesterday, I did some think-piecing about MLB’s biggest issues. Two aspects of the current meta are particularly problematic.

5. Sho-heave-ho

Cool. But is Miles Mikolas better?

I thought Correa had foot leprosy? What’s he doing scampering around the bases? Also, we’re on pace for like 150 inside the park home runs. New meta.

Ok, the multi-homer games are totally out of control. Here’s a nobody at Petco Park going bananas.