The Daily Grind: AVG or ISO?

I used starmaths (aka FanGraphs Guts!) to solve Tom Tango’s misleading poll question.

The Question (twitter link)

My Answer

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Grown Man Strength

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

If a Phillies stack goes off in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, did it make a sound? I think TDGI has proven that no, the Phillies stack did not make a sound. mmddyyyy didn’t have top performers Clayton Kershaw (69% owned) or Bryce Harper (0% owned). He was, however, the only one to roster 37 points from Edwin Rios. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re sitting on an eight-gamer tonight on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

N/A

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Uh oh. You know things are going to get wonky when Mike Fiers is the most expensive pitcher in the slate. And it’s not like he’s visiting the Marlins. The A’s are hosting damned Astros. And FDraft expects us to pay $18,600 for Fiers? Pssh. I think we’d all much rather drop $15,300 on Aaron Sanchez. While the Astros get credit for “solving” Sanchez, his latest rebound appears to extend roughly two starts prior to joining Houston. Expect about five decent innings.

Next up is Yu Darvish ($18,400) and once again I find myself more willing to target his bargain priced opponent. In this case, it’s homer-prone Drew Smyly ($12,700) opposite a powerful offense at a Citizen’s Bank Park. I’ve got Smyly penciled in for about 14 points which is both a nice value and utterly unexciting. Darvish is par value. He is the single best bet to post the highest point total in the slate, but an ugly outcome is also on the table.

Andrew Heaney ($17,800) gets a lot of love from fantasy analysts, but he’s just another Glob pitcher. I’m not rushing out the door to own him at this price, especially since he’s probably still limited to something like 90 pitches. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez ($15,500) is showing some signs of a breakout, although that’s thoroughly priced in.

Sonny Gray ($17,700) is a lovely source of over a strikeout per inning, lengthy outings, and homer prevention. The Cardinals lineup isn’t a pushover but neither is it especially intimidating. His opponent, Michael Wacha ($11,100) is a random number generator who is priced to move.

Marcus Stroman ($16,100) is visiting Julio Teheran ($16,900) and it DOESN’T TASTE LIKE ANYTHING.

Devin Smeltzer ($14,500) tastes like the daily trap. He’s posted some solid results in the majors following a frolic through the upper minors. However, in my admittedly brief looks at him, I’ve perceived him as that guy who slips through the cracks for a double handful of starts before the scouting report catches up to him. This is his seventh start so perhaps he’s still in the honeymoon phase.

Speaking of traps, Alex Young ($16,300) was terrible in Triple-A. Despite a shiny ERA in the majors, his 4.92 xFIP suggests pain is one the horizon. He’s a typical soft-tossing southpaw. Thus far, his success can be traced directly to an unsustainably low 14.4 percent line drive rate. He projects as a someone with an elevated liner rate. Of course, he does get a bump for facing the Giants craptastic offense. Dereck Rodriguez ($9,200) is King Krap, but he’s priced so cheaply that he could easily wind up as the top bargain in the slate when the dust clears.

Favorite Plays: Gray, Smyly, Sanchez, Wacha

Stack Targets: Chad Green et al, Rodriguez, Wacha, Adam Plutko, Smyly, Pedro Payano

4. SaberSim Says…

Gray, Heaney, Darvish, Teheran, and Smyly are the top projected pitchers. DRod, Gray, Heaney, Smyly, and Darvish are the bargains. I perceive some overlap. On the hitting side, Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Aaron Judge lead the way. Beef Weli Style, Mike Ford, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Votto, and Judge are the best dollar-for-dollar investments. (That’s Welington Castillo if it wasn’t clear).

5.Grown Man Strength

This is some grown man strength.

Rios has some grown man strength too. Not that the Dodgers will let him play regularly.

This occurred before he allowed a billion runs. I especially love the Cubs fan at the 25 second mark who’s clearly thinking “well, get the fuck on with it already.”