The Daily Grind: Audits, Salazar, Stubbs
Agenda
- Team Audits
- Daily DFS – Salazar
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Heston, Lewis, Stubbs, Odor
- Factor Grid
1. Team Audits
Hey folks. I’m back from Minnesota weddingland, and I’ve returned to several lousy rosters in need of an overhaul. Since I generally play in deep leagues, the waiver wire is not the place to solve my woes. I’ll need to target some smart trades.
There’s a challenge with running 10 or more teams. It’s hard to focus on any one league. As such, I have to perform occasional audits to decide what to do and how to accomplish it. For any category based league, the first place to look is the standings. This holds true for H2H leagues too. Let’s do a quick walk through of my home league.
I’m currently in dead last due to nonexistent offense. The league is unique in that nearly every place has a different payout. Even if first place is already out of reach, it behooves me to improve my overall standing.
Most of my 34 points come from pitcher counting stats (11 pts for W, seven pts for K). These are categories I can continue to protect by using high value starts and plenty of relievers. My roster includes eight starting pitchers including some trendy names like Danny Salazar, Shane Greene, Anthony DeSclafani, Carlos Martinez, and Jesse Hahn. I should trade some of them for relievers or position players. By my estimate, I should whittle down to five starters while adding two relievers. That will allow me to best protect my counting stats.
My team has a combined four points between runs and stolen bases. Certain seemingly modest gambles like Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Leonys Martin have not returned early dividends. I advise patience with the latter pair, although I’m ready to replace Eaton. I had hoped for some base running from Ian Desmond.
Acquiring a speedy leadoff type like Dee Gordon could kill two birds with one stone. I could add six points with 18 runs. At this point in the season, that’s one top guy. I can tack on another six points with 10 stolen bases.
There are other considerations that arise from examining that particular leaderboard. For the sake of brevity, let’s continue to our regularly scheduled programming.
2. Daily DFS – Salazar
Salazar will run you $7,700 on FanDuel tonight, and I’m a fan of the overall matchup. The game is at pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium. Salazar is a big time fly ball pitcher, so the deep fences are a nice bonus.
The Royals’ high contact lineup could be a source of consternation. In three starts, Salazar has shown 96 mph heat, big whiff rates, and has lasted six or more innings. Most importantly, his command has been decent. When he scuffles, it can often be blamed upon erratic location.
Cash game lineups will lean heavily towards Zack Grienke tonight. I like Salazar best for those large GPPs – he has one of the highest ceilings of the day.
Stack Targets: Michael Lorenzen, Mat Latos, Jeff Locke, Marco Estrada, Chad Billingsley, Bud Norris, Wandy Rodriguez, Tyler Lyons, Josh Collmenter, Tyler Matzek, Ryan Vogelsong
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
Jeff has presented 30 names today. Below are some of my favorites.
Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Chase Headley vs. Marco Estrada
Billy Butler vs. Trevor May
Carlos Santana vs. Jason Vargas
Billy Hamilton vs. Jeff Locke
Kevin Kiermaier vs. Rick Porcello
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Heston, Lewis, Stubbs, Odor
Pitchers to Start: We’ve seen five starts from Chris Heston. He’s demonstrated a strong command and control profile with a high ground ball rate and over six innings per start. The stuff looks fringy, but he could stick in the majors if he continues to hit his spots.
The game is at AT&T Park against Ian Kennedy and the Padres. Kennedy has scuffled in the early going which could lead to an easy win for Heston. Don’t count on strikeouts.
Below, you’ll find a (small) host of extremely iffy yet possibly useful names. Tread lightly.
Also consider: Jerome Williams, Mike Foltynewicz, Alfredo Simon, Dan Duffy, Carlos Frias, Roenis Elias
Pitchers to Exploit: Colby Lewis has a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings. He’s seemingly a mediocre choice for targeting. However, he’s up against an Astros team that includes a number of fantasy free agents. While he’s a perfectly decent major league pitcher, Lewis is still occasionally hittable. He’s a fly ball guy who could suffer at the hands of Houston’s power bats. Or maybe he’ll have an excellent seven inning outing with nine strikeouts. The Astros lineup can go both ways.
Also consider: Robbie Ray, Jordan Lyles, CC Sabathia, Mark Buehrle, Samuel Deduno
Hitters (power): Thanks much to Robert Baumann for standing in this past weekend/Monday. Yesterday, he recommended Drew Stubbs, saying “if he draws the start at home against a lefty (Ray), he’s a bargain upside play.”
Said recommendation drew at least one comment about his lousy start to 2015. He’s hitting .040/.077/.160 with a 59.3 percent strikeout rate in 27 plate appearances. Oof. There are two possible forces at work, it’s up to you to decide which you believe. Either Stubbs is completely broken, or we’re looking at a small sample hiccup.
His track record includes great numbers against lefties – .280/.353/.460. As an added bonus, he also has a .834 OPS against fly ball pitchers.
Also consider: Justin Ruggiano, Rickie Weeks, Ike Davis, Mike Aviles, Kevin Kiermaier, Brock Holt, Danny Valencia, Chris Young, David Peralta
Hitters (speed): Rougned Odor has not accomplished much of anything through his first 95 plate appearances. A .146/.263/.244 line has led to wide availability. While I wouldn’t expect great things tomorrow, at least he’ll have the platoon advantage against an exploitable pitcher. I don’t have any unique insights into Odor’s current slump.
Also consider: Collin Cowgill, Rajai Davis, Odubel Herrera, Eric Young, Angel Pagan, Nori Aoki, Ender Inciarte
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Watch out for rain at Colorado, Chicago, Washington D.C., Kansas City, Minneapolis, and Pittsburgh.
The Link. If you’re looking for stadium matchups, today definitely includes some excellent choices for hitters and pitchers.
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I’ve always been a big Salazar fan, but one thing working against him tonight is that he pitched against KC in his last start. Not sure if there is any data out there regarding pitcher performance when facing the same team 2 starts in a row, but I’d imagine it’s a pretty big disadvantage.
You’d think that it might be advantage pitcher in that case. After all, KC has had to deal with a variety of pitchers between Salazar’s two starts, whereas Salazar can easily focus on what he did last start, how KC handled him and how to best take advantage of them this time around.