The Daily Grind: Adonis, Norris, Iglesias

Agenda

1. Adonis Platoon Guy
2. Daily DFS – Ross, Gibson, Hammel
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Norris, Iglesias, Werth, Gose
5. Factor Grid

1. Adonis Platoon Guy

The Braves have used Adonis Garcia fairly regularly since trading away Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. The 30-year-old has seen his strikeout rate jump from 12 percent in Triple-A to 27 percent in 48 major league plate appearances. He usually bats somewhere between fourth and seventh.

Our swing guy Dan Farnsworth sees a hitter who is easily exploited by right-handed breaking balls. Farnsworth compares Garcia to a less powerful Wilin Rosario, saying “he’s not quite as strong.” I’ve gotten a few looks at Garcia and came away unimpressed. However, I like the idea of using him like a Danny Valencia.

2. Daily DFS – Ross, Gibson, Hammel

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: DraftKings has five early games. FanDuel excludes the 4:05 start between the Diamondbacks and Nationals. If you’re on DK, Joe Ross has an affordable matchup with the Diamondbacks. We discussed the various regression points related to Ross’ game yesterday. His slider has been fantastic, but will it continue to dominate? The sinker and change are his downfall. Thus far, he’s pitched like a $10,000 guy, and he costs just $8,700.

Oh, or you could choose Zack Greinke against the Phillies.

Late: The late group lacks a clear cut pitcher to use. You’ll have to gamble. Kyle Gibson is probably the most talented of the group, but he’s opposed by the Blue Jays. Unless you’re specifically fading the Blue Jays, you’ll want to avoid them.

It’s a shame because Gibson is a bargain on both sites compared to Jason Hammel. The Cubs hurler is the second best pitcher in the contest. He’s opposite Chris Heston and the Giants. Hammel has lasted six or more innings in just three of his last 10 starts. On second thought, maybe you do want to go with Gibson.

Stack Targets: Michael Lorenzen, David Buchanan, Yordano Ventura, Odrisamer Despaigne, Matt Garza, CC Sabathia, Jose Urena, Matt Wisler, Scott Feldman, Aaron Brooks

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

It’s a sad list today of five players, two of whom probably won’t play. Your options include Yasiel Puig against David Buchanan, Jose Bautista versus Kyle Gibson, and Scooter Gennett opposite Odrisamer Despaigne.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Norris, Iglesias, Werth, Gose

Pitchers to Start: Daniel Norris was a popular breakout target this spring. Instead, his shaky command took the stage and forced a demotion. He had a successful debut with the Tigers last week. He’s opposed by Joe Kelly and a inconsistent Red Sox offense. He may pitch well, but he’s also a strong candidate for a win.

We’re at the point in the season where some owners must chase either ratios or victories. Norris is a better pick for somebody who is more concerned about the win.

Also consider: Robbie Ray, Aaron Nola

Pitchers to Exploit: Raisel Iglesias is an interesting case study. He has good peripherals – 8.94 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, and 11.6 percent swinging strikes. His 5.13 ERA is much higher than his 3.75 FIP. I also find him personally fascinating. He works from multiple arm angles which is how I keep hitters off balance.

Knowing he works from multiple arm angles, it’s hard to glean anything from his PITCHf/x data. Ultimately, we have to decide if there’s something about his profile that supports his .331 BABIP. If not, he’s a decent buy-low candidate.

Here are those release points:

Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Jorge de la Rosa, Kelly, Mike Pelfrey, Cody Anderson, Julio Teheran, John Danks, Kyle Lohse

Hitters (power): Jayson Werth has performed miserably this season – .200/.273/.277 in 150 plate appearances. He’s been dogged with injuries. He’s even struggled against left-handed pitchers (a .150 BABIP will do that). However, he has a long history of lefty bashing. Jorge de la Rosa provides Werth with a nice opportunity to get back on track. He’s 40 percent owned on Yahoo.

Also consider: David Murphy, David DeJesus, Marlon Byrd, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Stephen Piscotty, Eddie Rosario, Chris Coghlan

Hitters (speed): What have you done for me lately Anthony Gose? Well, not all that much. Since the start of June, he’s hitting .205/.252/.295 in 156 plate appearances. And to think, a number of people scoffed at me for my hesitance to use him at the start of the season.

With Cespedes moving on to browner pastures, Gose’s playing time should increase. He’s always a stolen base threat any time a righty is on the hill – just don’t expect anything else.

Also consider: Odubel Herrera, Rusney Castillo

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There are three rain risks today – Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and the nation’s capitol. There’s also only one pitcher friendly stadium.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.