The Daily Grind: Aces, Moore, Miley

by
July 1, 2015

Agenda

  1. Home League Opening
  2. Daily DFS – Aces
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Fernandez, Moore, Miley, Napoli, Rajai
  5. Factor Grid

1. Home League Opening

One of the owners in my home league has gone completely AWOL for the second season in a row. Last year, he recovered and even finished in the top five. This time around, he’s showing no signs of life. It’s time to replace him. To fellow commissioners, I generally advocate aggressive action with delinquent owners.

It’s a 12-team auction keeper league with a $310 budget and standard deep rosters. Owners may keep any number of players at a cost of previous draft price +$7. Entry to the league is $40, but only the 11th and 12th place teams have to pay the full buy in. The average entry fee is $20.

I’m soliciting “applications” for a replacement owner. You’ll have enough time to make some trades for keepers or try to cut your entry fee in half. There will be no cost to joining the league this season. A good applicant is a savvy fantasy veteran who puts in a couple minutes a day keeping his roster up-to-date.

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You can email me at pitchin432 AT yahoo.com. Please keep it brief. I may not respond for a couple days, but I will get back to you either way.

Oh, and here’s the roster. There is plenty of talent – Mike Trout ($36 next season), Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, and others.

2. Daily DFS – Aces

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: If you can build a roster around Johnny Cueto, do so. The next tier of options – James Shields against Taijuan Walker and Jesse Hahn versus Chad Bettis – are evenly matched. If you do opt for a cheap pitcher like Bettis, you can try the Blue Jays stack against Rick Porcello. Cueto looks especially good because Joey Votto and Jay Bruce match up well against Trevor May.

Late: The late group includes Carlos Carrasco. I always try to roster him. Shoddy defense and poor luck have kept his price below the elite level. His stuff remains excellent. Judging purely by peripherals, he’s outperformed David Price this season. A game at Tropicana Field is a modest plus.

There are cheaper options, but they all come with problems. I actually like Jose Quintana against the Cardinals. Their offense is 11 percent below league average against southpaws. Unfortunately, the weather report is not encouraging. Other inexpensive pitchers like Vincent Velasquez and Robbie Ray come with high bust rates. Wei-Yin Chen is a solid alternative.

Stack Targets: Porcello, May, Mark Buehrle, Kyle Lohse, Matt Wisler, Alex Colome, Nick Martinez, Aaron Harang, Ray, Bartolo Colon, Brett Anderson

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 34 names today. Some of you have noted that the query pulls a few injured or un-rostered players. This is why I highlight the best of them here.

Adam Jones and Manny Machado vs Nick Martinez
Brayan Pena, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce vs Trevor May
A.J. Pollock vs Brett Anderson
Chris Carter vs Edinson Volquez
Jose Bautista vs Rick Porcello
Adam Lind and Ryan Braun vs Aaron Harang
Carlos Santana vs Alex Colome
Buster Posey vs Dan Haren
Howie Kendrick vs Robbie Ray
Robinson Chirinos or Carlos Corporan vs Wei-Yin Chen

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Fernandez, Moore, Miley, Napoli, Rajai

Pitchers to Start: Jose Fernandez isn’t available in your league. Well, he shouldn’t be available. However, he is expected to start tomorrow. I anticipate a short but effective outing. Matt Cain is also making his return in the same game.

Yet another injured starter on the mend – Matt Moore – will make his 2015 debut. Moore might be on the wire (29 percent owned). The southpaw is opposed by the Indians. I haven’t been on the Moore bandwagon since 2011. I can’t find any word about his velocity while on rehab. I should have just gone to watch…

Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Matt Boyd, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Hellickson

Pitchers to Exploit: The Blue Jays murder left-handed pitching. After failing to annihilate Eduardo Rodriguez last night, the club is down to just a 139 wRC+ against southpaws. The next best team, the Tigers, have a 119 wRC+. Wade Miley is a couple standard deviations worse than ERod. Expect wholesale slaughter.

Also consider: Kyle Ryan, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley, Manny Banuelos, Chris Rusin

Hitters (power): The Red Sox face a lefty who gave up three home runs in his debut. That’s probably a run of poor luck. Matt Boyd also struck out seven in 6.2 innings. Due to substandard offense, several right-handed Sox are available. The best is probably Mike Napoli but you might also find Xander Bogaerts on your local wire.

Also consider: Mark Canha, Eddie Rosario, Danny Valencia, Gerardo Parra, Mike Aviles, Giovanny Urshela

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis has a tough matchup against Francisco Liriano. The Pirates southpaw has reverse platoon splits due to an excellent change up. Alas, your alternatives for speed are lacking today. Rosario could be used as a power/speed play.

Also consider: ???

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

St. Louis looks iffy tonight with a high risk of storms. Atlanta should get their game in.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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SB
10 years ago

at the risk of being too excited about this, I’m pretty sick of inactive owners and would love a shot at completely remaking that team – tell your owners to prepare for a LOT of trade talk if i’m in!
(sent you a note)

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