The Daily Grind: A Plague of Slams

Another week, another Grind, another barrage of home runs.

AGENDA

1. A Big Day
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…

1. A Big Day

I don’t play DFS on Saturdays, but there was potential for massive point totals. A heroic selection of Edinson Volquez was required to maximize your payout.

From there, you had several options. Catcher Mike Zunino hit a grand slam as did five others. You might have preferred to take two homers from Ryon Healy over Matt Adams‘ slam.

2. Weather Reports

Detroit, Kansas City, and Texas have a risk of storms in the forecast. Check again closer to game time.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Nine games are a part of the main slate. Chris Sale headlines the leaderboard. He’s a must-use at only $11,400. Unfortunately, that means everybody will use him. Maybe it’s time to get contrarian.

A few pitchers on the docket are capable of climbing on their horse and riding to… well, I don’t know where this metaphor is going. Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, and Marcus Stroman have the capacity to be among the top performers. They’ve also had their share of inconsistency. For Verlander and Stroman, a dominant outing can turn into a complete game shutout. Severino’s path to value involves more than a strikeout per inning over six or so frames.

It turns ugly fast after the top four. Maybe Matt Moore has one of his good days versus the lowly Phillies? He’s been pitching better of late – only one meltdown since late April. He can effectively wild his way to a strong finish.

It’s been awhile since Amir Garrett posted a DFS-able outing. However, he’s the most capable of the bargain pitchers. Garrett costs $7,100 which is at least $1,000 more than he should cost today.

Stack Targets: Tyler Pill, David Holmberg, Vance Worley, Braden Shipley, Eric Skoglund, Trevor Williams, Garrett, Jeremy Hellickson, Zach Davies, Chris Tillman, Julio Teheran, Trevor Bauer

Afternoon Slate: Most of the truly interesting folk are in the afternoon crew. FanDuel has dedicated one of their new Mixup formats to this group. I assume normal contests will open too. Jose Berrios has looked mighty impressive through his first four starts. It will be tempting for the competitive Twins to ride their new ace. He’ll face the lowly Angles of Angleheim.

Kyle Hendricks is living under an undeserved black cloud. So much fuss was made of his velocity decline. Nobody remembers that Greg Maddux didn’t rely on velocity. That’s Hendricks’ archetype.

Sonny Gray is coming off his worst outing of the season in which he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings versus the Indians. Cleveland has an explosive offense. One bad start doesn’t mean Gray isn’t all the way back from whatever plagued him in 2016. He’s showing all the right signs. He has another tough matchup this afternoon – Tanner Roark and the Nationals.

Ooh! Bargains who I want to use! Brad Peacock is the most upside-ish bargain pick. Last time out, he was cruising right along until the second time through the order. Was the issue fatigue or is he a once-through-the-lineup guy? I’m leaning towards the former.

Stack Targets: Jarred Cosart, Jeff Hoffman, Peacock, Erasmo Ramirez, Martin Perez, Ricky Nolasco, Ariel Miranda

4. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Verlander, Hoffman, Miranda, and Nolasco are the top rated pitchers. I nodded along to the first two names, then that list took a HARD right turn. Hoffman does have solid results over 13.2 innings. However, a peak behind the curtains reveals all kinds of fluke and atypical peripherals. Here comes the Regression brand Mack Truck. I like Miranda, but he has a bad fastball. Nolasco can be sneaky decent on occasion. He’s not the slightest bit predictable. You know who I prefer to these names.

Mookie Betts, George Springer, Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschimdt, and Buster Posey are the top rated hitters today. I’m not sure we should be this keen to stack Giants versus Hellickson. They’ll probably do alright. There are better matchups involving more talented hitters at friendlier stadiums.