The Daily Grind: A Fancy Trade
Another day, another grind. That’s what I say whenever I don’t feel like writing something new.
AGENDA
- A Bregman Trade
- Weather Reports
- Perfect Lineup
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- Hitters to Use
- SaberSim Says…
- TDG Invitational Returns!
1. A Bregman Trade
I’m running a touch behind this morning because I was putting the finishing touches on a traditional fantasy swap. So let’s talk about it. In yesterday’s column, I noted I was shopping Alex Bregman. He was kind enough to blast a timely grand slam.
The swap came together in the following form:
I get:
Joey Votto
Ender Inciarte
Odubel Herrera
Eduardo Rodriguez
I give:
Alex Bregman
Gregory Polanco
Albert Pujols
Amir Garrett
The owner in question is slogging through a slow start and was looking to shake up his offense with some buy low talent. Possible keepers in this swap include Bregman ($15), Garrett ($8), Inciarte ($10), and Rodriguez ($8). The bulk of the deal centered on Bregman and Pujols for Votto. The other stuff is kind of on the side. The pitchers balance themselves as a challenge trade. On that front, I prefer E-Rod this season, but Garrett has a Cole Hamels-y look to him. Herrera partially balances some spare change from the Votto exchange while Inciarte and the rest of Doobie cover Polanco.
And now, back to DFS.
2. Weather Reports
Several venues have a low percent chance for rain. Double check closer to game time just in case. Minnesota is the most likely to be affected. There are spotty storms on the forecast. They’ll play, but using a pitcher may be risky.
3. Perfect Lineup
The perfect lineup scored 230.3 points on DraftKings last night. Behold!
Zack Godley
Luis Perdomo
Buster Posey
Justin Smoak
Jose Altuve
Jake Lamb
Eduardo Nunez
Matt Kemp
Cory Spangenberg
Hunter Renfroe
The winner of the DK Four-Seamer (29,411 entrees) posted 195.3 points.
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: The main slate is 13 games deep tonight. A couple afternoon tilts miss the cut. The pitching slate is right and top heavy. For between $11,000 and $11,800, you can roster Dallas Keuchel, Steven Strasburg, Yu Darvish, or Zack Greinke. I’m on board with all of them.
The prices drop quickly, but there are still some high quality options beyond the aces. Rich Hill is back, and he may even manage to throw five or six innings before his leprosy interrupts. He’s working at pitcher friendly AT&T Park.
John Lackey has been strangely homer prone this season. Otherwise, he’s pitching well. The Cubbies are hosting a surprisingly potent Reds lineup. Keep an eye on weather conditions at Wrigley Field. They’ll decide if Lackey is a guy to use or abuse. He should receive run support opposite Bronson Arroyo.
It’s about time for the league to adjust to Andrew Triggs. I’ll let Eno provide the analysis. Triggs has a solid matchup versus the Mariners. I’m anticipating a 4.00 ERA going forward. Serviceable but not dominant.
Eduardo Rodriguez has four straight quality starts with healthy strikeout totals. He’s visiting a banged up Cardinals offense at a pitcher friendly park. Oh, and no designated hitter! That serves as a pro and a con. He gets to pitch to automatic out Lance Lynn (literally the worst hitting Cardinals pitcher over the last 10 years), but he’s also at risk of getting pinch hit before he’s really done on the bump.
If you enjoy exploiting the Padres offense, Jimmy Nelson draws the start at Petco tonight. He’s opposed by Clayton Richard, another bargain option. Both offenses are extremely strikeout prone even if the pitchers involved aren’t whiff machines.
J.C. Ramirez has what should be an easy win opposite Derek Holland. Ramirez has transformed into a viable start via a barrage of breaking balls. He also switched his terrible four-seamer for a merely bad sinker. For his part, Holland has a shiny ERA fueled by a low BABIP. He’s never been a low BABIP pitcher in the past, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever before. He’s due to implode.
Stack Targets: Arroyo, Chad Kuhl, Ty Blach, Tommy Milone, Tom Koehler, Phil Hughes, Chase De Jong, Matt Boyd, Wade Miley, Jason Hammel, CC Sabathia
5. Hitters to Use
Cubs. Use them.
Austin Barnes will probably start versus Blach. He could be a top 10 hitting catcher if he wasn’t stuck behind Yasmani Grandal. Keep using Chris Taylor too. He hits too many grounders, but the rest of the profile is working.
On the 45th day, Eric Thames rested. And on the 46th day, he hit two home runs? Maybeso?
I like that the Tigers went from a couple old sluggers to a six-man murderers row in the space of a week. Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Upton are the best of the bunch. Victor Martinez is looking a little charred. He might be done.
Brian Dozier is hitting more grounders than flies for the first time since 2012. Perhaps he’s trying to work around the scouting report. The 2016 version of Dozier would be a great matchup against Kyle Freeland and his worm burning ways. I’m not so sure about 2017 Dozier.
Manny Machado’s Pure Mash Liquor.
6. SaberSim Says…
SaberSim thinks you should use Darvish, Strasburg, Keuchel, E-Rod, or Greinke. No surprises there. J.C. Ramirez is the best dollar-for-dollar value. Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, and Kyle Schwarber are the top hitters. Stack against Bronson? Say it ain’t so!
7. The Daily Grind Invitational
Congrats to schweitz1986. He racked up 150.95 points on a low scoring evening. It was a team effort – his highest scoring player was Perdomo (21.9 points). The leaderboard is updated.
We’re back on DraftKings today and tomorrow. See ya there.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Without knowing the rules or context of your league, I cannot help feeling you won that trade overwhelmingly. I want to play in a league with those guys.
That was the impression of some in our league. I feel like I definitely won the swap for the rest of May. Much less certain about the rest of the season and beyond. It’s an OPS league so Pujols isn’t that far off Votto. They’re both similar health risks too. And if Votto does hit the DL, then this swap veers away from me.
Please don’t read this as argumentative or condescending, but I would note that Votto seems no more a health risk than Pujols and even still, saying that a trade could be lost because of a potential DL stint works both ways. Albert Pujols could decide he wants to retire today, but so could Bregman or Votto due to some unforeseen reason.
I might be bullish, but I would say you got the first, second, and fourth best players in the deal for this year alone. And that’s only knowing half of the prices of the players involved.
The other players aren’t keepable.
I have it as me getting the 1st, 5th, 7th, and 8th best in that swap for this year. Beyond 2017, Bregman and Garrett are easily the best assets. I doubt I’d keep Inciarte, and ERod has a lot to prove before he’s a keeper.
If it’s an OPS league, how is Pujols ‘not that far off’ Votto? The 981 OPS Votto is putting up this year is actually lower than 2015 & 2016, and he’s only been under 900 twice in his career. Pujols last had above 800 OPS in 2012, and his walk-, K-, SwStr-rates have all gone dramatically in the wrong direction this year. The ROS depth chart says 923 vs 758, I’d say that’s an even bigger gap than the 291 vs 258 projected for AVG.
I’d say it’s lopsided in your favour for this year. If your partner/victim is into tank mode for this year and couldn’t keep Votto, then it’s more justifiable to get Bregman & Garrett long-term.
“It’s an OPS league so Pujols isn’t that far off Votto.”
2015 – 2017 OPS
Pujols: .787 .780 .630
Votto: 1.000 .985 .981
Ok, I see what you’re saying based on Steamer projection.
I see the average split as a bigger drain. Pujols’ OPS will be fantasy league average RoS whereas his AVG lines up as bottom 20%. I project his AVG to decline from where it currently is with a BABIP in the .200 to .225 range. His HR, R, RBI, and OBP will more than offset the decrease.
I wish someone would revive Tradebashers.com. They had a cool interface where you could post a trade and users voted for which side they’d rather receive. At the end of the day you could see that 62% preferred side A or whatever. You also got points for voting with the majority so you had an incentive to take a minute and really evaluate the trade and the details of whatever league it was from. You could post a potential trade to see what the crowd thought, or post a completed trade to gloat. So much fun and so useful.
Votto is a similar health risk to Pujols? Is this how you pulled this trade off, you sold the other team on this idea? Well played I guess. But that’s no way true.
I didn’t sell anything, that’s my own analysis. You’re free to disagree, but I’ve seen no evidence to suggest they’re different injury risks.
This was a low effort swap. I said Bregman is available with others for upgrades. I sent lists of players I liked to the teams that inquired. That’s roughly the extent of my input into this trade. This was offered to me as is.