The Daily Grind: 9-20-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. More Eye Tests
2. Daily DFS
3. Sunday Picks
4. Table

1. More Eye Test

I’m a fan of using the eye test as a quick and dirty way to gauge a player’s value – especially with pitchers. Sir Zimmerman does just that in his latest “Quick Looks.” I haven’t watch de la Rosa since he began struggling. What he describes as an isolated fourth inning is more what I’m used to expecting from the righty. His assessment of Trevor May is more positive than mine. I see a slightly worse Brad Peacock. Zimmerman is right in that May’s pathway to success depends on generating weak contact by mixing his pitches.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Five games are early, including three of only five offensive venues.

Roberto Hernandez and Felix Doubront will square off at Wrigley Field. Hernandez doesn’t make for a good target because he limits fly balls too effectively. Doubront should be a prime target with his non-existent strikeout rate and middling stuff.

The Blue Jays have struggled against lefties for much of the season, but I think that’s a fluke. Chris Capuano is a lesser lefty, so look for Jays hitters at Yankee Stadium. They’ll be shooting for left field, which is still hitter friendly – just not as much as right field.

Jerome Williams will face the A’s. I wonder if the Phillies have picked up that Oakland struggles with high fastballs.

Trevor Cahill versus Eddie Butler is today’s recipe for runs. I could easily imagine this being a 20 run game at Coors Field. Both pitchers can keep the ball on the ground, which might limit the damage. They should be expected to walk several batters, which could add fuel to the fire.

Late: Rubby de la Rosa hasn’t shown his A game in awhile, which makes a game at Camden Yards pretty exploitable. As we discussed in the outset, our friend Zimmerman has some thoughts about de la Rosa and wonders if he might be working through an injury.

Considering that I just called May a lesser version of Peacock, it should be no surprise when I recommend you target him in tonight’s contest. Just watch out for rain and a giant right field.

Hector Noesi generally doesn’t cough up quite enough to make for a good stacking option anymore. He’s a better target when at home. Today’s game is at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field, so you may just want to hunt and peck among the Rays hitters.

Colby Lewis is the Ranger of the Day.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Masahiro Tanaka is to start tomorrow. I would not expect a long outing from the phenom.

Miguel Gonzalez is a modestly useful choice against the Red Sox. He’s opposed by a rather mediocre opponent (more below) and the Orioles clearly have the superior offense. There’s a good chance Gonzalez will nail down a win.

Collin McHugh will face a weak offense in the Mariners, but he’s opposed by an equally good pitcher in Hisashi Iwakuma. This one is a coin flip.

Pitchers to Exploit: It’s uncertain, but it appears that hittable starter Nathan Eovaldi will represent the Marlins tomorrow. He tends to allow a high BABIP, which contributes to an ERA a full run over his FIP.

Joe Kelly is on the other end of the Gonzalez matchup. Camden Yards leaves little room for error. Kelly does generate a lot of ground balls, but his flies leave the yard at an above average rate – and that’s including time at Busch Stadium.

Anthony Swarzak got pummeled in his return to the rotation last week and I expect a repeat tomorrow. He’s opposed by Corey Kluber, which is to say that nothing positive will come out of this outing.

As I’ve been saying for weeks, Jacob Turner was a great acquisition. He just needs a lot more work before he’ll pay dividends.

Nick Tepesch represents the Rangers tomorrow.

Wade Miley versus Christian Bergman is the latest bashfest-in-waiting at Coors Field.

Hitters (power): You can try Darin Ruf given Scott Kazmir’s recent trouble.

Sean Rodriguez offers a platoon bat with position flexibility.

Hitters (speed): Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes should start against Miley.

Perhaps Arismendy Alcantara can be of service.

Try pulling Carl Crawford out of the ditch. He’s been playing well.

Michael Bourn and Jose Ramirez offer another source of speed.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Games in Kansas City, Chicago, Minnesota, and St. Louis could see scattered showers. The risks range from 10 to 50 percent.

The Link. Conditions are slight better for home runs than they’ve been this last week.

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