The Daily Grind: 9-19-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Stolen Base Streamers
2. Daily DFS
3. Saturday Picks
4. Table

1. Stolen Base Streamers

Whenever my colleagues focus on streaming options, it’s worth paying attention. It’s always good to get alternative perspectives. Mr. Minnix provides his stolen base picks for the third week in a row. He takes a useful data driven approach to highlight players with more than one day of value.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: One game is early. You won’t get to leverage Clayton Kershaw’s auto-win against Edwin Jackson. Shame.

Late: That means 14 games are late. There is a lot of decent pitching tonight.

Allen Webster is not one of those decent pitchers. A combination of good whiff rate and bad strikeout rate tells me he has good stuff but doesn’t know how to use it. If I could pick one guy who could benefit from a stint in the bullpen (think Carlos Carrasco), it would be Webster. Clearly he can get pitches by hitters, it’s probably just a matter of being more aggressive and throwing more strikes. He’ll face the Orioles at Camden Yards.

Jeff Locke has a difficult job quieting a righty heavy Brewers lineup. He’s lucky that Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are banged up or this matchup would look even worse.

The Royals are best known for piling up hits. Justin Verlander has allowed over a hit per inning this season, so the matchup seems to favor the Royals.

I don’t think Brad Peacock has the wherewithall to tame even a modest lineup like the Mariners. There’s a mid-rotation pitcher hidden inside Peacock, but I’m not sure if we’ll ever see it happen.

Chase Anderson and Jordan Lyles are decent sea level pitchers, but I would target both at Coors Field. Anderson is a changeup artist, which is about the only type of pitcher I trust at Coors. Even so, he’s been off for over a month now, which I attribute to fatigue.

Left-hander David Holmberg is an obvious target against the Cardinals. Busch Stadium is a net benefit for Holmberg. He needs to get his walk rate down to where it was in the minor leagues. Without elite command and control, he’s a slouch.

Lisalverto Bonilla is totally a left-hander’s name, but he’s really a righty. I’m not sure why that’s relevant except to say that the Angels are very good against right-handed pitching (fifth best). Against lefties, they’re THE best.

3. Saturday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Drew Pomeranz will take a spot start against the Phillies. I don’t know how prepared he is to pitch beyond five innings, but the A’s should stake him a big early lead (the reason is discussed below).

T.J. House is proving himself to be a reliable starter for the Indians. His fantasy profile is bland, but he’ll probably earn a win tomorrow against the ever volatile Trevor May.

Yusmeiro Petit has another favorable matchup. This time he’ll pitch at Petco Park against the absentee Padres offense. He’s opposed by Andrew Cashner, so he’ll have to earn a win.

Pitchers to Exploit: Felix Doubront has a pristine 1.50 ERA in three starts for the Cubs, but I ain’t buying it. He’s just getting lucky on balls in play and sequencing. He’s actually performed worse as a Cub than ever before (at least in the ways I care about).

The Phillies will start Jerome Williams. People in the Philadelphia media have discussed Williams as a better alternative to Kyle Kendrick. Sure, if by “better” you mean somebody who is free and can be cut with no regrets at any time, then I’ll take Williams. But he’s a ninth starter at best these days. I expect the A’s to be all over him.

Trevor Cahill will oppose Eddie Butler at Thin Air Park in Denver, Colorado. I feel for pitchers who are trying to earn a future role with their club and have to survive a start at Coors. I feel even more when that pitcher belongs to the Rockies.

The aforementioned May will oppose the Indians at Target Field. The good news for May is that the giant right field wall should limit the possibility for home runs.

The Ranger of the day is Colby Lewis. Plan accordingly, i.e. roster free Angels.

Hitters (power): Matt Joyce should enjoy facing Hector Noesi.

Trevor Plouffe is a nice platoon option against House. Kennys Vargas is another Twin to consider.

I’ve been waiting forever to dust off Danny Valencia. He’s a stud against southpaws like Chris Capuano.

Scott Van Slyke should net another start.

Hitters (speed): Maybe, just maybe, B.J. Upton is worth consideration against Jon Niese. Upton’s been worse against lefties (hard to believe, huh?) so this would be a desperation play for speed and power.

Michael Bourn and Jose Ramirez ought to look for walks against May. Then they can steal themselves a double.

Look to Ender Inciarte, Josh Rutledge, Drew Stubbs, and any other DBacks/Rockies you can scrape out of the pan.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Minnesota has scattered storms with an increasing risk throughout the game. You probably don’t need any Twins or Indians anyway.

The Link. Check out that block of red. It should be a mostly low scoring day.

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