The Daily Grind: 7-5-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Trade Notes
2. Daily DFS
3. Sunday Picks
4. Table

1. Trade Notes

Perhaps you missed the news – Jeff Samardzija AND Jason Hammel are headed to Oakland for top prospect Addison Russell and some other guys (they’re much less fantasy relevant). Samardzija and Hammel benefit immediately. The A’s have a ball hawk outfield, a big home park, and a dynamic offense capable of providing run support. The only downside is they’ll see designated hitters now.

Things get interesting for Russell. He’s best liked for his projectable power, which will play better in Chicago. The 20-year-old looks like a potential five category monster. He’ll probably get his first taste of action this September. He missed two months with a hamstring injury. Last season, he blasted 18 home runs and swiped 26 bases – mostly at High-A. I assume he will bump Starlin Castro to second base next season.

2. Daily DFS

Early: We’ll see 10 games early.

While Target Field isn’t the best environment for offense, pitchers David Phelps and Yohan Pino might twirl a stinker.

Yesterday I cautiously recommended using Andrew Heaney. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a viable stacking option.

Samardzija was supposed to start for the Cubs today. Whoever they scrape out of the woodwork will probably be exploitable.

Yesterday, I compared David Buchanan to Vidal Nuno – mostly because I’ve spent a lot of time explaining the exact ways Nuno is exploitable. They’re not similar pitchers, but their use case for DFS is the same. To be clear, Buchanan is throwing today against the Pirates. Nuno is not pitching.

Mike Bolsinger and his 88 mph fastball make for a decent target. The Braves don’t mash righties, but the slow velocity might help them out.

Who doesn’t want to target mediocre Rockies pitchers. I really thought the Rockies would make some noise this year, but their rotation has been a disaster.

Late: Six games are late due to the double-double in Boston.

The Royals will see T.J. House. His worst quality to date has been a 26.3 percent HR/FB ratio. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a pitcher throw about 34 innings with such a high ratio (I’m sure it’s happened, I just didn’t notice it). The situation isn’t quite as bad as it looks – 60 percent of his balls in play have been on the ground, so fly balls are uncommon. The Royals prefer chaining singles to blasting home runs, so this may even work out for House.

Colby Lewis is plagued by a .394 BABIP. His career BABIP is .304. I think he’ll find his way down to his 4.47 xFIP over the rest of the season, but that number is high enough to allow for some blow ups.

I’m using Odrisamer Despaigne in an H2H league where I’m desperate for a spark. Otherwise, I’m eagerly avoiding Despaigne. I’ve never seen a pitcher succeed with a 1.98 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9.

Hector Santiago is unlikely to go deep into the game. We’re I a major league manager, I would look at him as a four inning starter anyway. On the other side of the matchup, Scott Feldman is ok but an Angels matchup is difficult.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: I’m not a believer in Danny Duffy the sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. I’ll be surprised if his ERA is more than a few points under 4.00 over the rest of the season. However, I do think a start against the Indians is a great place to use him.

I’m not quite all aboard the Jesse Hahn train – mostly because I don’t understand his low innings per start ratio. His peripherals have certainly been exciting, even if regression is a near certainty.

Pitchers to Exploit: Wade Miley has pitched well but for one problem – home runs. The Braves right-handers hit more than their share. Turner Field plays neutral for righties, so the stadium won’t prevent an outburst.

Hector Noesi will face his old team (the Mariners) at White Sox Field. Noesi is prone to troubled outings.

Ricky Nolasco has never been very good at putting away hitters. BABIP and home run rate have also stung him this season.

Marco Gonzales might not be ready for big league action. It’s only been two starts, but a low strikeout rate and high walk rate aren’t great signs. Other peripherals look funky too in the small sample. We’ll see how he does with the favorable matchup against the Marlins.

I’m going to go ahead and say Yohan Flande won’t be sticking around long in Colorado. I could see him surviving a season in Minnesota or Oakland, but his skill set just isn’t a match for the ball park.

Hitters (power): Keep using Scott Van Slyke. This is his best matchup yet.

Padres Park isn’t bad for left-handed power which is why I recommend taking a share of Seth Smith against Tim Lincecum.

Marcell Ozuna makes for a nice target against Gonzales.

Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons are two Braves I might sneak onto my roster for a day.

Hitters (speed): James Jones and Michael Saunders seem to have taken the place of Matt Joyce and David DeJesus as the guys who always appear.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

After a couple days with rainouts, we should be in the clear today.

The Link. Today there are three top choices for offense. Remember, home park gets quietly priced into a DFS player’s value through his production. The best values are often hitters from pitcher friendly parks visiting hitter friendly venues.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.