The Daily Grind: 7-3-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. More About Park Factors
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

1. More About Park Factors

Yesterday, a commenter asked if the park factors in this column use multiple years of data. I pull my numbers from FanGraphs Guts! Since they are produced by FanGraphs, I assumed they would use the current best practice. There is no explanation as to how the factors are derived, but if you go year-to-year, you’ll see there’s almost no change. That leads me to believe they’re fueled with multiple years of data. However, several ballparks, like Petco and Safeco, have recently changed their dimensions to become more hitter friendly. Those changes are reflected in the park factors, but only one year of data is available.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Games in San Francisco and Miami start before the usual 7:05 tip off. We won’t be using those tonight.

Late: We have seven games left, one of which (Baltimore) appears to be a major weather risk.

If you want to bet on Brandon McCarthy continuing to allow home runs, I won’t stop you. I thought regression would kick in months ago, but he’s still rolling a 20 percent HR/FB ratio.

Erik Bedard’s lefty nature could betray him against the Detroit Tigers. There aren’t a lot of pitchers to exploit today, so I expect Bedard to be a popular target.

Franklin Morales might last as many as five innings. He’s not stretched out, and he’s not particularly good. He has large platoon splits over his career, so favor right-handed hitters. The game is in Colorado, which serves as an added bonus. It’s ok to also play a lefty or two, since the bullpen will likely be used early.

The Angels offense is right up there with the Tigers against left-handed pitching – mostly because of Mike Trout. Brett Oberholtzer is a bit of a fly ball pitcher, which increases the chance for big damage.

3. Friday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Chase Whitley’s start in Minnesota should be useful to fantasy owners. his strikeout rate leaves something to be desired, but his walk rate has been impressive. The scariest thing about him is usually Yankee Stadium – obviously Target Field eliminates that concern.

Marcus Stroman has the stuff to turn in a great outing. The Athletics have enough offense to ruin his day.We’ll see which force wins.

Jon Niese is an unexciting option for decent numbers. He’s opposed by Nick Tepesch, who’s survived the majors much better than I thought he would. His peripherals aren’t very good, so Niese has an inside edge on a win. To be clear, I’m only recommending Niese, not Tepesch.

Pitchers to Exploit: I’ve yet to have luck betting against Tommy Milone. He’s handled some bad matchups this season. He’ll have to do it again tomorrow against the Blue Jays. At least he’s home.

While Petco Park is less than ideal for right-handed offense, the Giants have plenty of sluggers to field against Eric Stults. Certain right-handed White Sox may enjoy facing Roenis Elias. The 128 park factor for right-handed homer is particularly attractive.

Jorge de la Rosa is having one of his homer prone years, which is understandable at Coors Field. Still, the Dodgers have some right-handed power to use against him.

Hitters (power): Dayan Viciedo is an easy pick for tomorrow.

Scott Van Slyke will have the platoon advantage, assuming he starts over Andre Ethier.

C.J. Cron gets another lefty. Of course, Dallas Keuchel is a good one, so you may want to look elsewhere.

Hang onto Michael Choice if you want a guy who can occasionally produce a big (and usually does nothing).

Sean Rodriguez will see a decent left-handed pitcher – Drew Smyly.

Hitters (speed): Gerardo Parra isn’t particularly exciting, but a matchup with Ervin Santana isn’t all bad.

Brock Holt will probably ply his utility knife trade against Miguel Gonzalez.

4. Table The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It appears Baltimore is very likely to receive evening thunderstorms. Stay away from that one.

The Link. Well I know where I’m going for offense…

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