The Daily Grind: 7-24-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. DFS Bullpens
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

1. DFS Bullpens

Fellow RotoGrapher Brett Talley did some interesting research yesterday. He looked into which bullpens allow the most and least offensive production. I’ve been incorporating bullpen quality as a tie breaker when setting my lineups – usually it doesn’t influence my decisions. It’s yet another factor that adds a whiff of potential to your team. On any given day, the benefit of being “bullpen aware” won’t be visible. But it will add up over the season.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four out of 11 games are early today.

We discussed Colby Lewis is some detail yesterday. He’s a high ERA, moderate FIP pitcher, so regression should make him look better over the rest of the season. I’m not sure the regression will kick in today, Lewis is a fly ball pitcher with a hefty platoon split. He’ll have to contend with the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. New York can also stack their lineup with left-handed hitters.

Brandon McCarthy has shown issues with home runs this season, which is good for DFS owners. The small park hurts McCarthy’s upside, but I wouldn’t go full Rangers stack.

The Athletics will see Scott Feldman. He’s a mediocre pitcher set to challenge a dynamic offense. The good news for Feldman – the game is in Oakland.

Late: The remaining seven games are late. You’ll want to play mix and match rather than leaning on a stack.

The Padres lack much offensive thump, which is good for a struggling Edwin Jackson. He’s still one of the most exploitable pitchers of the day, so think about using guys like Seth Smith and Yasmani Grandal.

Like the Padres, the Twins lack particularly talented mashers. Hector Noesi is always a good matchup, but Target Field will sap the power of Minnesota’s few lefties. The righties aren’t powerhouses either, so this looks like a candidate for a few patch starts.

Aaron Harang usually wouldn’t be listed here at home against the Marlins. He draws notice because we need to target somebody.

Why I didn’t pick…Matt Garza: Even though he’s coming off one of the worst starts of 2014, Garza is still a talented pitcher with the ability to shutdown a mid-tier offense like the Mets. There no evidence to indicate in injury, so I see no reason to build a Mets stack.

3. Friday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Wade Miley continues to draw good matchups. This time, he’ll take his strong strikeout rate to Philadelphia to face a tepid Phillies lineup. It sounds like he won’t get to face Ryan Howard, but that shouldn’t affect expectations too much.

Tanner Roark will take his command and control style to Cincinnati. Great American Ballpark is a horrible place to target pitchers, but with the Reds offense half disabled and Roark pitching so well, it might be worth the risk.

Uncle Jesse Hahn has hit the ground running in his first exposure to the majors. The one warning sign in his profile is innings per start. His minor league rates were very low, and he’s averaged less than six innings in the majors. He’s averaged only 92 pitches per start, so it seems like the Padres are trying to limit his workload. It’ll affect his ability to earn the win in Atlanta.

I don’t know what to do with Jason Hammel. He’s coming off a terrible outing, and he’s been bad in both Oakland starts. He’s also allowed at least one home run in each of his last seven starts. On the positive side, he’ll face the Rangers, and he still has strong strikeout and walk rates on the season.

Josh Tomlin’s command and control profile has him looking like the 2012 version of Corey Kluber. The peripherals of a very useful pitcher are there, we just have to wait for regression in his home run rate.

Pitchers to Exploit: An increased walk rate and BABIP regression have led Travis Wood to an ERA above 5.00. The lefty is showing ridiculous platoon splits this season, with a .250 wOBA against lefties and a .369 wOBA against righties. He’s at home tomorrow against the Cardinals.

Brad Hand at Houston seems like a sink or swim type outing. The Astros strike out plenty and George Springer is out of action. However, Hand has lousy peripherals since returning to the rotation.

The Pirates are the latest team to visit Colorado. The Rockies are still rolling out lefty starters galore, with Brett Anderson drawing the call tomorrow.

Tyler Skaggs will probably draw a few “to starts” over the remainder of the season. However, he’ll face a lefty mashing Tigers lineup tomorrow.

Hitters (power): Interesting Pirates for this series include Russell Martin, Josh Harrison, and Neil Walker (if available).

Trevor Plouffe will see lefty John Danks.

John Jaso, Stephen Vogt, and Jed Lowrie are among the usable Athletics against Nick Tepesch.

Darin Ruf will likely start with the platoon advantage against Miley.

If Allen Craig found his way to your waiver wire, you may consider giving him a shot tomorrow.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis and Austin Jackson seem to be the most available Tigers. One of them probably won’t start.

Adam Eaton still leads off most days for the White Sox. He’ll face Kevin Correia.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Minnesota could see scattered storms.

The Link. We have a few 10 weather ratings at hitter parks today. I avoided the Tim Hudson versus Cole Hamels matchup, but maybe you’ll want to test out some right-handed Giants.

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