The Daily Grind: 5-30-14

Agenda

1. DFS Roster Analysis
2. Daily DFS
3. Saturday Selections
4. Table

1. DFS Roster Analysis

Let’s try another round of roster analysis. Yesterday, Glen1475 took home the bacon in the FanDuel Single ($5 entry, $800 top prize). He scored a total of 58.33 points – congratulations. His roster was:

Zack Wheeler
Hector Sanchez
Edwin Encarnacion
Jose Altuve
Pablo Sandoval
Jose Reyes
Allen Craig
B.J. Upton
Billy Hamilton

In a field of flawed pitchers, Wheeler was a good choice. The Phillies offense has looked pretty sketchy lately, as evidenced by Josh Beckett’s no hitter. Sanchez and Reyes were blanks, but neither player was a bad choice. If memory serves, Sanchez was extremely cheap and batting fifth. Encarnacion and Craig carried the offense. Glen wasn’t interested in stacking, but it does seem like he tried to maximize his plate appearances. Upton and Hamilton are very high-risk, high-reward choices since they do nothing so often. They basically did nothing yesterday, but the pair’s 1.75 points was the difference between first and second place (and $300).

All in all, I can see a process informing this roster. Personally, I would have liked to use more mini stacks of the Reyes-Encarnacion variety. Wheeler was also cheap enough that a full Jays stack with Bautista could have been managed. Bautista plus Kole Calhoun would have massively outperformed the Upton-Hamilton pair, both in expected and actual performance.

2. Daily DFS

Rack ’em up, we have 15 late games today.

Chasing stacks at Yankees Stadium is often a good idea. With Ricky Nolasco on the hill for the Twins, the hometown Yankees look mighty interesting. For their part, the Twins face a very exploitable Vidal Nuno. Just watch out for rain.

The Nats see Colby Lewis. He’s looked a bit sharper in recent outings, but he has to be very sharp to succeed with his middling stuff. Aside from Adam LaRoche, the Nationals don’t have many noteworthy lefties to send against Lewis.

The Blue Jays have a few bashing bats who will enjoy the platoon advantage against Jason Vargas. They’re expensive sorts, but worth every penny.

John Danks was crisp through his first few starts, but the wheels have fallen off the Danksbus. Walks have shot him in the foot, as they’re wont to do. While the Padres’ offense borders on pitiful, they have a few right-handed bats who should enjoy a game at U.S. Cellular Field.

I like Travis Wood, I really do. I like the Brewers ability to mash lefties even more. I can’t even describe how much more – it’s like the difference between the world’s best burger and boiled broccoli.

The Orioles have a few reputable righties to send after left-handed starter Brett Oberholtzer. Minute Maid Park isn’t as friendly to hitters as Camden Yards, but it’s friendly enough.

3. Tomorrow’s Tamales

Pitchers to Start: Franklin Morales is an unusual pick to start given that he’s not really a starter. His biggest problem this season has been home runs (5.65 ERA, 4.49 xFIP), so Progressive Field should help him out. The Indians are also rather pitiful against lefties – they currently rank 27th in wRC+ against southpaws. This is a dangerous start to play, but there’s upside from the park and opposing lineup.

Chase Utley carried the Phillies offense through the first couple weeks of the season. Ever since, they’ve been sliding towards the bottom of the league in offense. Jacob Degrom isn’t pitching particularly well – his 1.83 ERA belies his 5.13 FIP. However, the matchup might be good enough to use him anyway.

Yep, I’m going to keep on trotting out Brandon McCarthy’s name until he passes the 50 percent owned threshold. The Cincinnati Reds have a deceptively bad offense, although a start against Johnny Cueto mean’s he’ll have a hard time securing the win.

Pitchers to Exploit: If you thought Nolasco was a good target for Yankees lefties today, take a look at Kevin Correia at Yankee Stadium tomorrow. I know I will.

The Braves lack many interesting waiver wire hitters, but you can try the few available against Jacob Turner.

Hitters (power): Do the Angels only face left-handed pitchers? In any case, C.J. Cron can take a start – at least until Josh Hamilton returns and/or Raul Ibanez is punted.

Hello again Matt Joyce and David DeJesus. It’s been hours since I’ve last seen you here.

Yan Gomes is an easy pick against Morales.

If the Rockies are aware of park factors, they’ll sit Michael Cuddyer for a day so their all-lefty outfield can play. A start for Corey Dickerson would be nice.

Kelly Johnson and Yangervis Solarte are bottom of the order Yankees worthy of consideration.

Hitters (speed): Tommy La Stella could be worth a try even though he won’t have the platoon advantage. Nor is he guaranteed to start.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Thunderstorms are possible in New York, Boston, and St. Louis. At around a 50 percent chance, it’s too early to know what to do.

The Link. You shouldn’t have any trouble finding a hitter’s park today.

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