The Daily Grind: 5-19-14 – Presented by FanDuel
Agenda
- Roster Analysis
- Daily DFS
- Tomorrow’s Tilts
- Table
FanDuel has unleashed the World Fantasy Baseball Championship; a week-long, $5,000,000 celebration of Fantasy Baseball in Las Vegas! The WFBC has something for everyone, from the $250,000 single-entry championship, to the live $3,000,000 DFBC Final in Las Vegas.
Remember to use promocode FANGRAPHS to get your huge 100% deposit bonus up to $200. Click here to win your seat ticket.
1. Roster Analysis
One way to win the FanDuel Squeeze is to hit eight home runs. Let’s take a look at Bedroombully’s roster, which put up an impressive 82.75 points. He used a lineup of:
Felix Hernandez
Devin Mesoraco
Justin Morneau
Dee Gordon
Matt Dominguez
Jimmy Rollins
Alex Gordon
Mitch Moreland
Chris Carter
Both Dominguez and Gordon hit two home runs, while Carter, Moreland, Rollins, and Morneau hit one apiece. This is a roster I would never construct – it’s pretty obvious this owner went with the tactic of using a top pitcher and value picks. His most expensive position player was actually the only drag on his roster. While I don’t care for this particular process, at least he’s following one.
Were I to execute a similar lineup, I would put more focus on top of the order hitters for away teams. As such, Morneau, Dominguez, Moreland, and Carter will almost never make one of my rosters. They can still win a day for you, but they’re not the percentage play.
2. Daily DFS
There are only five games today, and they’re all late. Let’s comment on all games.
The Indians have performed poorly against left-handed pitching like Drew Smyly. Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, Yan Gomes, and Mike Aviles have not done their part. The Tigers matchup versus Corey Kluber isn’t inspiring. Neither Kluber nor the Detroit lineup is a clean bet to perform well.
The Nationals assault is just a bit right-handed with Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche on the disabled list. As such, Mike Leake isn’t a bad play. The worst part about his start is he’s opposed by Stephen Strasburg. The Reds lineup is also shorthanded with Joey Votto on the sidelines and Jay Bruce on the disabled list.
Wily Peralta has the job of retiring the Braves, which typically means he’ll record lots of strikeouts, allow several home runs, or both. The Brewers have one of the better matchups today against a less-than-sharp Mike Minor.
Scott Carroll is the king of balls in play. About 12 percent of plate appearances against him have ended with a strikeout or walk. A Royals stack seems advisable. Meanwhile, the White Sox are down their best right-handed hitter, so they’re looking quite a bit less fearsome against Jason Vargas. Paul Konerko should be a cheap option.
Dallas Keuchel has a tough job getting through Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, and friends. Garrett Richards has an easier task retiring the Astros.
3. Tomorrow’s Tilts
Pitchers to Start: Trevor Bauer has a tough assignment against the Tigers, but it’s survivable. He seems to have figured out his problem with walks allowed. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he’ll be prone to multi-home run games.
Doug Fister draws the depleted Reds lineup. Unlike depleted uranium rounds, depleted lineups are less potent.
Anthony DeSclafani was impressive in his debut. The Phillies should be an easier opponent, although they beat up a couple Reds starters over the weekend.
I like Josh Beckett against the New York Mets. Do be aware of the 3.94 FIP.
Drew Pomeranz has been great in a couple five inning starts. The Rays will be his biggest test to date, but Tropicana Field will be on his side. He needs to throw more than five innings to be truly valuable.
Pitchers to Exploit: With J.A. Happ opposing Felix Doubront, it seems like a great day for righty bats at Fenway.
The Rays will trot out Jake Odorizzi. It’s a learning process for Odorizzi, but he’s better than his 4.89 ERA.
The Mariners lefty-stack is visiting Arlington, Texas and Colby Lewis. You’ll have a lot of choices.
The Giants draw lefty Franklin Morales at Coors Field. This is a rare occasion where you should go stock up on Giants.
A couple select Padres are worth a look against Kevin Correia.
Hitters (power): Jonny Gomes will draw the start.
Travis Snider might be worth a shot against Miguel Gonzalez.
Seth Smith is the guy to use in San Diego.
You could try George Springer against Tyler Skaggs.
Justin Smoak has a rare favorable matchup.
Hitters (speed): James Jones, Michael Saunders, and Brad Miller also appear usable against Lewis.
4. Table
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Well, at least the weather is clear today. If the reports are to be believed, we’ll barely see any clouds tonight.
The Link. Uh…This isn’t very helpful today, is it? Play the matchups.
This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
This might be one of the dumbest things ever written:
As such, Morneau, Dominguez, Moreland, and Carter will almost never make one of my rosters. They can still win a day for you, but they’re not the percentage play.
If you’re not playing Rockies at home, or guys with good match ups at home who also have good splits, you really have no legit “process”
Your beloved “process” should be re-named “Precious”
Considering Morneau’s price and position in the lineup, he’s usually not near the top of the points/$ pool at 1b. He wasn’t yesterday. There are too many 1B who offer the same production and an extra .5 PA per game.
Hopefully there’s not a “fantasy malpractice” Complaint filed against you.
No longer worth arguing. Up 8x my initial deposit on FanDuel since April.
If you think the theoretical road at bat is worth more than how players and teams actually perform good for you.
If we want to compare dick sizes, I’ve deposited $15 and my FD account including withdrawals is at $1725. That’s 115X my deposit. I think I have you by a hair on the results.
I’m not saying using Morneau is an invalid strategy, but it’s not one I would have ever used yesterday. I’ll use him if and when he’s near the top of the points/$ pool subject to other constraints.
As I’ve said more times that I can count, there are a lot of different ways to succeed at DFS. I only use a couple of them.
Once again you’re keeping it as classy as ever. And I guess using your logic, I’m actually up something closer to 25x since my initial roll never got really used. But then again, I’m not “an expert” who writes a piece on a site that’s paid for by the company he’s trying to get people to play on.
But whatever, you’re a shill/tout for a fantasy site.
Now you’re just trolling. Good day sir.
One of the dumbest things written in the history of humanity? Wow. With all of the horribly evil things people have written over the course of our history on this planet, I never would have guessed that something written about daily fantasy baseball would rank so high on the list.
I don’t mind Carter/Dominguez 4-5 combo vs Danks and think that was a sharp play regardless of outcome…
In that same game I could see Gillespie going over Dominguez but he gets a mini stack w CC
Peralta actually has not been recording a lot of ks… He seems to be getting lucky in terms of giving up a HR a start but never getting roughed up. Never know either w the Braves tho.
Shrug…