The Daily Grind: The Final Volume

Agenda

1. My Favorite Pitch
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid
7. Farnsworth Digest

1. My Favorite Pitch

Remember this beauty (from June 19)? It’s partly (ok, mostly) optical illusion, but I swear this starts directly at the knees and runs five feet.

98 with movement pic.twitter.com/zBjBSLlas9

— Forbes to Federal (@ForbesToFederal) June 19, 2015

2. Daily DFS – Hamels, Happ

Yesterday’s Grind

The final day of the season offers a 15 game contest that starts at 3:05. There aren’t even any night games. The Cardinals and Braves are playing a doubleheader so don’t expect lineups to be posted. They might get rained out again. There are no playoff implications so the games wouldn’t be rescheduled.

Clayton Kershaw is making an abbreviated start. I assume Jacob deGrom and Johnny Cueto are in the same boat. If you want to pay for an ace, Cole Hamels is the guy. Not only will Hamels be unrestricted, the Rangers actually need him to last at least seven innings. They used nine pitchers yesterday. The Astros can still force a tie for the AL West if the Rangers lose to the Angels today.

The Pirates need a win or a Cubs loss to hold onto home field advantage in the Wild Card game. With J.A. Happ on the bump against Josh Smith and the Reds, a victory is practically assured. Since joining the Pirates, Happ has 9.73 K/9, 1.57 BB/9, a 2.04 ERA, and 2.18 FIP. Nothing about the breakout reads as particularly  fluky. His strikeout and walk rates will probably regress, but I think they’ll remain better than his career norms. As a bonus, the game is at PNC Park.

If for some reason you’re drawn to Mark Buehrle today, fight the urge. He’s expected to throw just two innings then retire.

Stack Targets: Frankie Montas, Frank Garces, Christian Bergman, David Buchanan, Matt Wisler, Jorge Lopez, Smith, Tanner Roark, Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco, Vidal Nuno, Matt Moore, Daniel Norris, Chris Tillman

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have some variety available for the last dance.

Jesus Montero, Seth Smith, Kyle Seager v Chris Bassitt
Matt Duffy, Alejandro De Aza, Buster Posey v Christian Bergman
Adam Lind v Dan Haren
Jose Abreu v Daniel Norris
Derek Dietrich v David Buchanan
Joc Pederson v Odrisamer Despaigne
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz v Danny Salazar
Russell Martin v Matt Moore
Salvador Perez v Phil Hughes
George Springer, Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, Jake Marisnick, Carlos Correa v Robbie Ray
Billy Butler v Vidal Nuno

4. SaberSim Observations

Unfortunately, SaberSim isn’t entirely updated yet. deGrom is listed as the top pitcher (Kershaw, Hamels, and Cueto aren’t listed at all). My recommendation, Happ, is currently fifth on the chart. Wisler is fourth and Montas is sixth. Can’t say I agree with those picks. I expect the projections to change considerably over the next few hours. The story is similar with hitters. Only seven players are currently expected to produce more than three points on FanDuel.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets

Sad face. Keep an eye out for Game 163 in the AL West.

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

As mentioned, Atlanta is a rain risk again.

The Link.

7. Farnsworth Digest

I received a lot of help this season. I’m a big fan of Jeff Zimmerman’s GB/FB splits and Dan Farnsworth’s swing analyses. Unfortunately for Jeff, his work doesn’t lend itself to a nice season recap. What follows is a helpful digest of Dan’s contributions.

Dan’s analysis appeared in 15 issues of the Daily Grind covering 16 players. Justin Maxwell appeared twice. I’ve included a truncated blurb about each player and linked to each post within said blurb.

Devon Travis – “I’m a fan. He’s got a great swing with quick hands that allows him to hit line drives and hard fly balls regularly…I definitely like his chances of besting his ZIPS and Steamer projections on batting average (thinking like .280-.290 true talent level).”

Mike Moustakas – “I don’t expect much different results without a big change in approach or mechanics.”

Odubel Herrera – “BABIP wise, I think it’s going to be too easy to get him to hit ground balls to the right side to sustain much more than a league average mark there.”

Alex Guerrero – “Guerrero does a number of things well. I think his swing path may make him a bit more of a mistake hitter than an elite guy.”

Jake Marisnick – “Marisnick seems to have really improved his contact skills this year. Although he probably won’t keep up his high line drive rate the whole year, he’s got enough strength to keep hitting singles and doubles.”

Justin Maxwell – “I’ve always liked a lot of aspects of Maxwell’s swing…We’ll see how he responds to pitchers refusing to throw him a ball up in the zone once the reports go around this year.”

Carlos Correa – “He’s come a long way in the last year or two with his swing, but I’m still questioning how much his home run totals are going to reflect his excellent raw power.”

Maikel Franco – “I love Franco’s swing…Some of the cosmetic stuff might turn people off.”

Eugenio Suarez, Rougned Odor, Kyle Schwarber – Summary: he likes all three.

Cesar Hernandez – Hernandez has much more leverage when batting right-handed (I didn’t quote in this one).

Nick Castellanos – “I see a big difference from last year to this year. He’s always had fantastic hands, but now he’s a lot smoother with his stride and lower half in general.”

Adonis Garcia – “he’s not quite as strong” as Wilin Rosario, but he’s otherwise similar. That’s not a good thing.

Adam Eaton – “He’s doing a little better keeping his swing through the middle of the field, but no, I don’t see anything that makes me think he’s going to keep the ball off the ground.”

Gregory Polanco – “I still see a lot of “down and across” with his swing path, so I’m not sure if he’s made any significant changes. The interesting thing about athletic hitters and inside pitches, particularly down and in, is that even if they tend to swing down or bring the barrel around the ball more than normal, just to be able to hit those locations they tend to take better cuts.”

A swing isn’t everything. Athleticism and eye sight matter too. Overall, I found this information extremely helpful.

Thanks again to Dan, Jeff, and everyone else who made The Daily Grind possible.