The Curious Case of the Elite Fantasy Shortstop

This was not the plan. With Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes among the top group, shortstop was always at the mercy of injuries. Poor performance while on the field was not supposed to be the issue. While they’ve thwarted countless fantasy seasons, the star shortstops have tossed the keys to the position to… Brandon Crawford. No kidding. Crawford leads the position in wRC+ with Jhonny Peralta right on his heels.

What went wrong? Let’s take a gander at the top 5 by RotoGraphs preseason consensus rankings.

1. Troy Tulowitzki: His batting eye looks much worse this season. He’s chasing pitches out of the zone at a career-high rate and that’s working up the chain from swinging strike rate to contact rate. The numbers are all bad, for what we’re used to from him. Another red flag: He’s seen a large decrease on contact on pitches in the zone, while swinging at more of them.

Is there hope? Yes. Despite alarming trends, Tulowitzki’s track record is too good and extensive to ignore. It’s a small sample, but his past two weeks look much better with a 163 wRC+ that leads all shortstops.

2. Hanley Ramirez: He’s floundered since knocking 10 home runs in the season’s first month. In Hanley Ramirez-esque fashion his struggles appear to be directly related to a sprained shoulder suffered May 4. Thanks to the early-season burst, and a fairly low bar at the position, he’s still fourth among shortstops in wRC+.

Is there hope? Always! He’s popped two home runs recently, which could be a great sign of shoulder health. His BABIP should have plenty of room to grow as it currently sits more than 80 points below his career rate and there are no big changes in his batted ball profile.

3. Ian Desmond: Good news off the top: Desmond’s home run and fly ball distance looks good. His batted ball mix is less appealing. He’s substituted fly balls and line drives for ground balls and infield flies this season. His hard contact is also the lowest he’s mustered in the past four seasons (the really good Desmond era).

On the other side of the 20-20 dash is speed. With one steal on three attempts, it’s been a slog. I’m not as worried about this since he’s shown the ability to steal in bunches. He had a pair each of one-steal and seven-steal months in 2014.

Is there hope? Certainly. His home run and fly ball distance is fine. He’s striking out less than last season, albeit more than seasons before 2014. ZiPS projects 14 homers and 13 steals the rest of the way. Desmond’s spiking strikeout rate always meant he was a bit more risky than other similarly-valued players. Even so, there’s nothing underlying suggesting he’s lost his mojo. While I wouldn’t expect a fourth straight 20-20 season, he should have plenty left in the tank in 2015.

4. Jose Reyes: For some time, he’s been a player from whom you always know what you’re getting when he’s on the field. Maybe not anymore. Reyes is putting up career-worsts in BB/K and swinging strike rate. The relatively modest increase in swinging strike rate actually seems tame when looking at how many pitches he’s chasing. His rate of chasing pitches has historically bounced a bit, however it’s never reached this season’s “heights.” A high BABIP has helped disguise just how badly Reyes has struggled so far.

Is there hope? Of course! Because he missed time with a broken rib, Reyes has only 109 plate appearances, too few to fire the flare gun and abandon ship. So far it’s only a bad month.

5. Starlin Castro: There’s a trend here. Like Tulowitzki and Reyes, Castro is chasing way more pitches out of the zone, leading to the predictable increase in swinging strike rate. But wait! Castro has chased like this before, back in 2012, when he was actually pretty great in fantasy. But wait again! He’s not the same hitter he was then. He’s pulling more balls and hitting way more ground balls than ever. Because of those trends, his power is a bit funky. He’s hit four home runs and only four doubles. His home run and fly ball distance is solid (greater than Nelson Cruz), so I don’t think that funkiness means his homers will completely fall off.

Is there hope? Sure. ZiPS projects final totals of 14 home runs and 12 steals, which would be more HR+SB than Castro has produced since 2012.