The Change: V-Mart, Pablo, & Bounceback Leaderboards

As the season draws to a close, and the Red Sox try to push their record to .500, there’s plenty of blame to go around. The rotation didn’t end up working out, really, and there’s more than one high-priced acquisition that fizzled in his first year. But if you sort the leaderboards for the worst players in baseball this year, one name drifts to the top: Pablo Sandoval.

The easiest analysis is to say that he’s been better in the past and will be better again. And one-year defensive samples are certainly part of this story, so he could easily get back to being a decent defender and recover his value that way. That said, Sandoval has lost nearly forty points of adjusted offense, and that seems extreme. It’s even worse for second place on the losers list, as Victor Martinez has lost a whopping 90 points of weighted runs created plus from last season to this one.

Victor Martinez just showed us the worst single-season drop-off since free agency began.

Can we just pencil Martinez and Sandoval into their career numbers when they’re on the wrong side of this single-season dropoff leaderboard?

This isn’t a fantasy leaderboard, per se, but wRC+ correlates well with runs, RBI, batting average, and power numbers. Good batters are good batters. And these batters were good one year, and terrible the next. And Martinez did it worse than anyone has since 1974.

Worst Single Season Dropoffs in Free Agency Era

Name	Season 1	S1 PA	S1 wRC+	Season 2	S2 PA	S2 wRC+	diff
Victor Martinez	2014	641	167	2015	485	78	-90
Scott Brosius	1996	500	131	1997	526	50	-81
Adam Dunn	2010	648	136	2011	496	60	-75
Sandy Alomar Jr.	1997	480	131	1998	438	56	-75
Chris Davis	2013	673	168	2014	525	94	-74
Jeff Burroughs	1978	611	160	1979	475	87	-73
John Mayberry	1975	683	166	1976	690	94	-72
Reggie Jackson	1982	621	145	1983	458	74	-71
Adrian Beltre	2004	657	161	2005	650	90	-71
Sixto Lezcano	1979	566	165	1980	460	97	-68
Juan Gonzalez	1993	587	164	1994	463	96	-68
Ken Singleton	1983	612	129	1984	403	61	-68
Dick Allen	1974	525	163	1975	481	96	-67
Jeff Keppinger	2012	418	128	2013	451	61	-67
Willie McGee	1985	652	151	1986	539	85	-66
Brook Jacoby	1987	620	144	1988	606	78	-66
Jeff Bagwell	1994	479	205	1995	539	140	-66
Allen Craig	2013	563	134	2014	505	69	-65
Cal Ripken	1991	717	154	1992	715	90	-64
George Foster	1981	472	152	1982	608	88	-64
J.T. Snow	2004	417	153	2005	410	89	-63
Ray Durham	2006	555	126	2007	528	62	-63
Mike Napoli	2011	432	179	2012	417	116	-63
Ted Simmons	1983	650	122	1984	532	60	-62
Jose Hernandez	2002	582	119	2003	571	58	-61
Rob Deer	1992	448	145	1993	532	84	-61
Mookie Wilson	1988	410	129	1989	509	69	-60
Howard Johnson	1989	655	166	1990	668	106	-60
Roberto Alomar	2001	677	151	2002	655	91	-60
Tony Pena	1986	565	112	1987	425	53	-60

wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, a league- and park- adjusted offensive measure

You might notice that this is a list of good players, for the most part. You don’t get 400 plate appearances of terrible production without having a lot of goodwill in the bank. And so Pablo Sandoval will get another chance next year, just as many players that have come before.

What separates Sandoval and Martinez in this instance may be interesting, though. And that’s speaking beyond the difference in the magnitude of their dropoffs, since Sandoval’s drop this year was only the 339th-worst single-season drop in wRC+ since 1974. While Martinez’s numbers are so much worse compared to his excellent season last year, he has more of an excuse than Sandoval. He was dealing with an injury this year, as his knee didn’t recover from surgery as well as most people hoped. That makes Pablo Sandoval more Scott Brosius and Victor Martinez more Chris Davis (ADHD medicine) or Adam Dunn (appendix surgery).

What we are really looking for is the other side of the coin. Particularly if we are interested in investing in Martinez or Sandoval next year, we have to know how likely these sorts of bounce-backs are, and what the best bounce-backs of all time have looked like. Here’s the other side of the leaderboard from above.

Best Single Season Recoveries in Free Agency Era

Name	Season 1	S1 PA	S1 wRC+	Season 2	S2 PA	S2 wRC+	diff
Terry Pendleton	1990	484	60	1991	644	141	80
Adrian Beltre	2003	608	86	2004	657	161	75
Scott Brosius	1997	526	50	1998	603	123	73
Darin Erstad	1999	638	70	2000	747	140	69
Aubrey Huff	2009	597	77	2010	668	144	67
Sammy Sosa	1997	694	93	1998	722	159	66
Alex Rios	2011	570	60	2012	640	126	66
Chili Davis	1983	553	83	1984	546	148	65
Mark McGwire	1991	585	105	1992	571	171	65
Kevin Mitchell	1988	566	119	1989	640	184	65
Mike Napoli	2010	510	115	2011	432	179	64
Jose Bautista	2009	404	102	2010	683	165	64
Tim Wallach	1993	522	66	1994	466	129	64
Jose Canseco	1987	691	106	1988	705	169	63
Matt Kemp	2010	668	106	2011	689	168	63
Aubrey Huff	2001	434	71	2002	494	133	62
Ryne Sandberg	1983	699	80	1984	700	142	62
Jeff Bagwell	1993	609	145	1994	479	205	61
Barry Bonds	2000	607	174	2001	664	235	60
Lloyd Moseby	1982	533	76	1983	604	135	59
Dusty Baker	1976	421	77	1977	604	136	59
Adrian Beltre	2009	477	81	2010	641	140	59
Carlos Beltran	2000	413	63	2001	680	122	58
Kendrys Morales	2014	401	72	2015	624	130	58
Sandy Alomar Jr.	1996	444	73	1997	480	131	57
Paul Molitor	1986	482	107	1987	542	165	57
Casey Kotchman	2010	457	69	2011	563	127	57
Bret Boone	2000	525	92	2001	690	149	57
Tom Paciorek	1980	441	95	1981	452	152	57
Magglio Ordonez	2006	646	113	2007	679	169	57

wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, a league- and park- adjusted offensive measure

Look at that. Scott Brosius shows up on both lists. That’s probably not too surprising. If the player was good enough in his bad year to get 400 plate appearances, and then was good enough to get 400 plate appearances again in the year after his bad year, he probably rebounded back to his career levels. Scott Brosius was a career 94 wRC+ guy that had a 50 wRC+ season nestled into his peak at age 31. Pablo Sandoval is a career 116 wRC+ guy that just put up a 75 in his age-29 season. This is good news. This is a better comp for Pablo than Terry Pendleton (despite the two players’ sizes) because Pendleton went from his second-worst season in his life to a career year in order to zoom to the top of this list.

There are a lot of career years on this list. Let’s limit the list to just players that were bad the year before their comeback. Here’s the list again with only players that had worse than an 80 wRC+ in season one, with their career wRC+ added.

Best Recoveries From Poor Plate Production Since ’74

Name	Season 1	S1 PA	S1 wRC+	Season 2	S2 PA	S2 wRC+	diff	career wRC+
Terry Pendleton	1990	484	60	1991	644	141	80	91
Scott Brosius	1997	526	50	1998	603	123	73	94
Darin Erstad	1999	638	70	2000	747	140	69	93
Aubrey Huff	2009	597	77	2010	668	144	67	111
Alex Rios	2011	570	60	2012	640	126	66	99
Tim Wallach	1993	522	66	1994	466	129	64	102
Aubrey Huff	2001	434	71	2002	494	133	62	111
Lloyd Moseby	1982	533	76	1983	604	135	59	103
Dusty Baker	1976	421	77	1977	604	136	59	117
Carlos Beltran	2000	413	63	2001	680	122	58	120
Kendrys Morales	2014	401	72	2015	624	130	58	115
Sandy Alomar Jr.	1996	444	73	1997	480	131	57	84
Casey Kotchman	2010	457	69	2011	563	127	57	93

wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, a league- and park- adjusted offensive measure

Our comp for Victor Martinez jumps off the page at first. Martinez has a career wRC+ of 122, Beltran is at 120, and both are switch hitters. Beltran’s 2000 was worse than Martinez’s 2015, but Beltran’s recovery brought him all the way to his career levels, and there’s at least hope that Martinez can do the same. That’s the good news.

It doesn’t look good for the switch-hitting catcher to better Beltran’s recovery, though. For one, Beltran’s big recovery came when he was 24 and it was really more of a leap forward than a recovery to previous levels. Even Dusty Baker was 28. Alex Rios was 31 when he made this list. Kendrys Morales is 32 right now.

Martinez is 36, and there are only two players on this list that had a recovery after 33 years old that would bring Martinez anywhere close to his career work. One was Aubrey Huff. At 34, Huff put up his best year, one year after putting up his worst year. The other was Tim Wallach, who at 37 years old, followed his worst season with his best season.

One other best comp for Martinez doesn’t show up here, but it’s… Victor Martinez. In 2014, he added 54 points of wRC+, and if he did that again just two years later, he’d be right at his career wRC+. The problem with that comp is that Martinez was good in 2013, he was just excellent in 2014.

If you limit the pool to older recoveries off of sub-par seasons, there’s Huff and Wallach, and then there’s nobody. And Huff and Wallach followed their worst seasons with their best seasons. Don’t bet on Martinez being Huff or Wallach. Don’t bet on a recovery that will make this leaderboard.

Pablo Sandoval has plenty of comps and is a younger human being. He should be able to approximate something like he’s done before with his bat next year. Victor Martinez has two comps and is an older human being. If he does return to his career levels next year, it’ll make for a great story.

Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman for the season-to-season wRC+ query.