The Change: Pitchers Who Hang Them

We may not have found a way to measure hanging breaking balls today, but one table in particular caught my eye as being maybe useful for fantasy players. On this table, you’ll see the curveballs with the biggest range in movement with a few outcome stats included. If we sort through this list mentally, it seems possible to find our hanging curveballs.

Starting Pitchers by Curveball Movement Range

Name	Count	Ave PFx_z	Standard Deviation PFx_z	ZoneWhiff	Whiff Diff
Jesse Chavez	170	-5.0	3.88	15%	28%
Chris Heston	617	-3.0	3.49	27%	14%
Noah Syndergaard	490	-0.6	3.37	16%	24%
J.A. Happ	275	-4.7	3.36	7%	16%
Erasmo Ramirez	174	0.8	3.31	28%	16%
Roenis Elias	311	-4.1	3.20	11%	24%
Mike Bolsinger	674	-7.8	3.03	9%	16%
Michael Lorenzen	207	-5.8	2.81	12%	21%
Shane Greene	147	0.0	2.69	14%	11%
John Danks	267	-0.9	2.68	10%	14%
Felix Hernandez	553	-8.7	2.52	12%	21%
Danny Duffy	496	-4.0	2.48	12%	10%
Miguel Gonzalez	251	-5.2	2.48	9%	9%
John Lackey	267	-3.9	2.41	8%	9%
Mark Buehrle	210	-4.2	2.38	0%	8%
Chris Rusin	212	0.0	2.37	14%	18%
Jered Weaver	464	-2.6	2.37	21%	5%
Buck Farmer	118	-0.2	2.36	8%	11%
Taijuan Walker	190	-6.4	2.35	11%	21%
Wandy Rodriguez	546	-7.4	2.34	8%	14%
Jon Niese	436	-4.3	2.31	8%	11%
Wei-Yin Chen	218	-6.6	2.29	3%	8%
Yovani Gallardo	340	-5.0	2.28	9%	13%
Lance Lynn	133	-5.4	2.28	10%	10%
Colby Lewis	232	-3.7	2.26	15%	1%

Ave PFx_z = average vertical movement
Standard Deviation PFx_z = standard deviation in vertical movement
Zone Whiff = whiffs/swing on pitches in the zone
Whiff Diff = difference between whiff% on all pitches minus whiff% on in-zone pitches
Minimum 100 curveballs thrown. 2015

Jesse Chavez had a reputation for hanging curveballs, so this list seems better whit him at the helm. But I’d be more worried about guys with large ranges in curveball movement and bad in-zone whiff rates, so in the terms of this analysis, there are other pitches that worry me more.

J.A. Happ’s curveball, for instance. It’s terrible in the zone, and only three starters have a larger range in movement, so it’ll end up in the zone sometimes. A big part of his recent success has been throwing the curve less — he cut his usage in half with the Pirates as part of his ‘throw my bad pitches less and my good pitches more’ plan. Over the last two years, that curve has given up the second-most homers per pitches of his many pitches. Fewer curves indeed.

Mike Bolsinger’s numbers worry me just as much, and he doesn’t have other pitches to fall back on. Given that he also telegraphs his slider by using a different arm slot, I’m not banking on much more out of Bolsinger than he’s given his team so far.

Miguel Gonzalez showed up on other possible hanger lists with his changeup, and here he is showing us that his curve has a similar problem. His curve doesn’t get many whiffs, period, and this probably goes a decent way to undoing the infield fly ball strengths that he does have.

Jered Weaver showing up here is a little concerning for the usefulness of the list, since most agree he has great command. Mark Buehrle, too. Do these two veterans vary the movement on purpose and mess up our numbers?

Let’s look at changeups, since I haven’t heard a pitcher other than Chase Anderson tell me much about commanding his changeup and changing the movement on the pitch. Maybe this list will be more solid.

Starting Pitchers by Changeup Movement Range

Name	Count	Avg(PFx_z)	Standard Deviation PFx_z	Zone Whiff	Whiff Diff
Danny Salazar	460	3.3	3.28	25%	18%
Felix Hernandez	767	-0.1	2.85	13%	15%
Miguel Gonzalez	345	3.5	2.73	12%	25%
James Paxton	111	5.7	2.63	19%	9%
Colby Lewis	317	8.5	2.61	3%	6%
Rick Porcello	201	5.4	2.50	10%	10%
Matt Shoemaker	505	4.8	2.50	14%	16%
Eddie Butler	170	3.8	2.47	11%	7%
Vidal Nuno	200	4.8	2.46	13%	6%
Michael Montgomery	301	3.7	2.46	19%	17%
Jacob deGrom	302	3.9	2.45	20%	13%
Collin McHugh	119	4.7	2.45	17%	6%
J.A. Happ	252	5.8	2.44	6%	10%
Martin Perez	182	6.3	2.42	18%	5%
Trevor Bauer	315	4.6	2.41	14%	9%
Alex Colome	192	7.2	2.41	9%	15%
Matt Cain	146	1.7	2.40	6%	10%
Justin Verlander	288	8.0	2.40	15%	7%
Ervin Santana	131	6.2	2.34	22%	-4%
Jon Niese	357	3.2	2.33	4%	10%

Ave PFx_z = average vertical movement
Standard Deviation PFx_z = standard deviation in vertical movement
Zone Whiff = whiffs/swing on pitches in the zone
Whiff Diff = difference between whiff% on all pitches minus whiff% on in-zone pitches
Minimum 100 curveballs thrown. 2015

I would buy Danny Salazar at the top of a bad command list, so that part feels okay. But the split change that he throws gets a ton of whiffs in the zone. And Trevor Bauer even pointed out to me the other day that Salazar doesn’t always know where it’s going, and that the splitter is all about ‘destabilizing the spin axis.’ So maybe Salazar’s unpredictability is an asset. Look at the next name on the list…

At the same time, this magic has not worked for Colby Lewis‘ change, which is unpredictable yet predictably bad. Rick Porcello and Eddie Butler are supposed to have good changes, too. And Matt Cain’s change is supposed to be as good as his command… In these cases, though, this news is not good. They throw all sorts of different changeups, and they aren’t currently working.

Appearing across multiple versions of this list are Miguel Gonzalez, J.A. Happ, Jon Niese, and Trevor Bauer. It seems like you’d want to command one of your non-fastballs well, and that it would be tough to really be able to manipulate the movement on multiple pitches well. Of all the pitchers that have shown up in our romp today, this quartet suffers the most when you look through this lens.