The Challenges Of Trading Expensive Players

Last Wednesday, I explored the the fantasy market value of expensive stars like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. My colleague Chad Young used a unique methodology to discover that Trout was most valuable to ottoneu owners when he cost $65 or less.

We both project Trout to produce more than $65 of value, but the data implies it’s hard to construct a full roster around him if he costs more. Personally, I think the case for contending with an expensive player depends upon finding bargains elsewhere. You just have to be the right owner for the job.

Today, I’ll cover my continuing efforts to trade at least two of Trout ($62), Kershaw ($64), and Zack Greinke ($36). Obviously, in terms of cost, one of those is not like the others. While, I view all three as possessing comparable overall value, I’ll be focusing on the two $60 guys today.

Historic Data

In my experience, top players tend to be traded often for budgetary reasons. In our league, we have some relevant trade data. I acquired a $55 Trout and $14 Jonathan Lucroy last winter in exchange for $4 Steven Souza, $5 Corey Seager, and $3 Jace Peterson. Lucroy looked much more valuable at this time last year but so did Souza. Seager, meanwhile, has only built upon his value.

Since it was a winter trade, this information is directly applicable. At the very least, I can expect to acquire a top prospect, a second valuable player, and a throw-in for Trout and another decent major leaguer. For now, my preference is to skip the one year wait for Seager. I’m trying to couple Trout with a higher value complementary piece like $7 Lance McCullers in exchange for a top major league talent.

I’m taking the same approach with Kershaw. One of my selling points is that these players increase in value during the season. Any owner can benefit from adding a Trout or Kershaw, even if they don’t plan to contend.

Last winter, a couple rivals swapped $61 Kershaw and $6 Marcus Stroman. This was before we learned Stroman would miss the 2015 season. Kershaw was back on the trade block in early April. I eventually acquired him on April 20 for $26 Edwin Encarnacion*, $3 Dellin Betances, and $2 Aramis Ramirez. I also added $15 Kenley Jansen and $9 Brandon Moss in the swap.

*At the time, Encarnacion was being outperformed on my roster by Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Lind, AND Alex Rodriguez.

The in-season mark-up was substantial. While Jansen and Moss weren’t mere throw-ins, they aren’t long term building blocks. Encarnacion and Betances are probably both better assets than Stroman, and that’s before factoring in his injury. By virtue of finding $61 for Kershaw, his owner profited handsomely. It’s possible he could have done just as well by using that money in the draft, but that’s a riskier proposition.

The Trade Market

Nine of my rivals can afford to acquire Trout or Kershaw. Two of them could find room for both players. Most of the nine teams have expressed trepidation about swapping a long-term building block for an expensive star. Others smell blood and think they can swindle me.

One owner offered up an interesting opinion. He could add a $60 player, but he thinks it will be better for him if I get stuck with Trout and Kershaw. In that scenario, I’d be forced to cut some valuable players like Anthony Rendon or Lucroy.

There are two problems with that logic. Any cut players will have to be acquired in the draft. It’s always risky to count on finding value in the draft.  I also have no doubt I can work something out with the other eight clubs.

I’ve already received some close offers – the kind of deals I might seriously consider later in the winter. Since trading has only been open for 10 days, I feel no pressure to make a hasty swap. While some owners are on top of their trade talks, others are taking their time. The slower teams happen to be the better matches for me.

One potential barrier to a fast trade is my asking price. As I mentioned, my preference is to target established, semi-elite players on cheap contracts. I’d happily trade away more talent to land the best of those players. Unfortunately for me, it’s always a hard sell to snipe away $15 studs. I can empathize. A rival asked for my $13 George Springer and I nearly sent a counteroffer for all of his keepers.

Luckily I have time. First, I will thoroughly explore the market for established talent. If I can’t find anything, I’ll consider targeting a top prospect like my Seager swap of last winter. The timing isn’t great for a prospect move. Most of the high impact talents debuted last season. Byron Buxton costs $12. That’s a throw-in price. Same with Lucas Giolitto for $8. Julio Urias is a potential target at $4. I used to own him. Yoan Moncada costs over $20 (no thanks), and $3 J.P. Crawford’s skill set isn’t great for the format.

I’m going to have to dust off my old salesman shoes. If they look like a contender, I’ll need to find a surplus to target. If they’re still rebuilding, I can highlight the Kershaw Profit of last offseason.