The Case For Doug Fister

Doug Fister had a bad season in 2015. His 4.19 ERA was half a run higher than in his worst season between 2011 and 2014, and his FIP and xFIP were even higher. His best seasons with the Tigers featured close to seven strikeouts per nine and a groundball rate over 50 percent. Last year, he struck out five and a half batters per nine and induced under 45 percent groundballs. That is why Fister had to sign a one-year, $7 million contract with the Astros.

Jeff Sullivan detailed the concern with Fister’s loss of velocity. While never a hard-thrower, Fister has lost about two and a half mph off of his fastball since 2013 and nearly four mph since his peak velocity in 2011.

Doug Fister’s Avg. FB Velocity

Season	Velocity (mph)
2011	90.0
2012	88.9
2013	88.8
2014	87.9
2015	86.2

No doubt that is a concern, especially for a pitcher that at his best enjoyed just moderate strikeout totals, and so Fister will have a one-year deal to prove to teams that he deserves a long-term contract in 2017. Fortunately for him, he picked the best place to prove it.

According to Baseball Info Solutions’ shift totals in The 2016 Bill James Handbook, the Astros shifted on 1,416 balls in play in 2015, second most behind the Rays in baseball and more than 400 shifts clear of the third-place Rockies. Not surprisingly then, the Astros allowed the third-lowest batting average on groundballs.

Lowest BABIP on Groundballs, 2015

Team	BABIP	Shifts	Shifts Rank
Giants	.212	552	14
Pirates	.213	971	4
Astros	.215	1,416	2
Cubs	.215	381	23
Blue Jays	.216	884	7

The other leaders in batting average allowed on groundballs skewed toward shift-heavy teams, as well. In contrast, the Nationals were tied for 24th with a .249 batting average allowed on groundballs and were 29th in baseball in shifts with 216.

The situation was even worse for Fister, specifically. Of the 141 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season, Fister’s .301 batting average allowed on groundballs was second-highest.

Highest BABIP on Groundballs, 2015, Min. 100 IP

Pitcher	Team	IP	BABIP
Trevor May	Twins	114.2	.304
Doug Fister	Nationals	103.0	.301
Jeremy Guthrie	Royals	148.1	.294
Nathan Eovaldi	Yankees	154.1	.290
Andrew Heaney	Angels	105.2	.290
Alex Colome	Rays	109.2	.288
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	175.2	.286
Matt Shoemaker	Angels	135.1	.283
Andrew Cashner	Padres	184.2	.280
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	127.2	.279

Regardless of possible reasons, Fister and Trevor May were borderline outliers. Meanwhile, Fister has allowed a .236 batting average on groundballs for his career, 65 points lower than he did in 2015. He had never previously gone over .276 in a season.

Doug Fister’s BABIP on Groundballs

Season	IP	BABIP
2009	61.0	.229
2010	171.0	.255
2011	216.1	.197
2012	161.2	.194
2013	208.2	.276
2014	164.0	.216
2015	103.0	.301

With regression, Fister would likely have enjoyed a bounce-back season had he stayed with the Nationals, but the Astros’ shift tendencies provide him an opportunity for a dramatic improvement. Fister can enhance that benefit even further with a return to a heavier reliance on his slider, which dropped off in 2015 and likely contributed to his decreased groundball rate. Fister does not have the strikeout potential to be a major sleeper, but his command could drive excellent ratios to make up for it in deeper and AL-only formats.