The Beauty of the Roto 5×5

The 2016 fantasy baseball season has unofficially begun. Yahoo opened its doors over the weekend. I’ve already renewed two keeper leagues, and undoubtedly more will follow. In fact, I’m planning to unveil some quirky reader leagues in the near future. What follows is an ode to the Roto 5×5 and common twists on the original.

The Traditional – Roto 5×5

The tried and true format has much to recommend it. Beginners should always start here since most online analysis is geared towards this scoring system. You can also make a variety of small tweaks to make your 5×5 slightly custom – we’ll get back to those in a minute.

Some complain about the specific categories, especially on the hitting side. Home runs are closely related to hitter talent, but the same can’t be said of runs, RBI, stolen bases, and batting average. The best Roto hitters aren’t always the best real world hitters. This is a feature, not a bug.

The beauty of the format is its emphasis on category management. Whereas a linear weights points league often comes down to picking the best players and forming platoons, owners in 5×5 leagues have a complicated formula to maximize.

The standard five offensive categories aren’t highly correlated. Obviously, home run hitters usually pile up RBI. They often do fine in runs too. Rarely do they possess speed or a high average. Likewise, your Speedy Gonzalez types usually don’t bash homers, but they will score runs and hit for a solid average. A few monsters are both types of player.

This lack of correlation trims down the amount of luck needed to win a league. Savvy managers can skill their way to the top of the leaderboard even if they happen to miss out on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

On the pitching side, wins tend to draw the most ire. Even though sabermetricians complain about the save stat, most fantasy owners love it. Nobody has a problem with strikeouts or ERA (some might prefer FIP). However, WHIP isn’t a terrible proxy for FIP.

No matter how good the starting pitcher, he can only contribute to four of the five categories. Relievers can be five category assets, but they usually aren’t viewed as such. In particular, it can be difficult to manager reliever wins – they’re very unpredictable.

Twist #1: OBP or OPS

Some leagues opt to replace batting average with OBP or OPS. It’s a trade off. Both stats better measure the real world talent of a player. They also (generally) reward power hitters and punish speedsters.

While batting average is usually a negative category for power hitters, pitchers tend to work around the strike zone against them. In other words, walks happen. By virtue of being a power hitter, they’ll also post a high slugging percentage.

On the flip side of the coin, the best speed guys are singles hitters. Pitchers don’t fear these types since the worst outcome is usually comparable to a walk. When Jose Fernandez works a three ball count again Ben Revere, he’ll throw a 96 mph “cookie*” right down the pipe. Few walks and extra base hits translates into a mediocre OBP and OPS.

*It’s in quotes because Jose Fernandez doesn’t throw cookies.

Twist #2: Net Steals or Saves

I’m on record as being an anti-fan of net categories. In particular, net steals is just another way to devalue speed players. Dee Gordon had only 38 net steals – still the second highest total after Billy Hamilton (49 net). Charlie Blackmon scored 30, Jose Altuve managed just 25 net swipes. It compresses the category.

In the past, runners were more cavalier about their caught stealing rates. In this new age of awareness, base thieves generally have a 15 to 25 percent caught stealing rate. There is some random variation, but we usually don’t want to introduce random elements. I see no reason to compress the category.

As for saves, I’ll admit it makes more sense to count them as a net category. This knocks your Kevin Gregg‘s and John Axford’s down to the fringiest type of asset while reaffirming the value of a Craig Kimbrel. I still prefer the classic non-net version. If an owner wants to figure out how to survive disaster ratios for a few saves from a guy like Gregg, he can be my guest.

Twist #3: Quality Starts

Fantasy owners have long lamented the arbitrary nature of pitcher wins. The common solution is the quality start in which a pitcher allows three or fewer runs over six or more innings. Depending on who you talk to and the platform, four runs over eight innings also qualifies as a QS.

Choosing between wins and QS is a matter of preference. For me, wins are the way to go. The key to the stat is finding good starters who last deep into their outings. The more seven or eight inning games, the more likely the pitcher will rack up wins. Both starters and relievers on offensive powerhouses are especially attractive. You want run support.

Quality starts removes that run support caveat, but there are still team elements to consider. The Rays are known as a team with a quick hook – especially for non-Chris Archers. A new major league trend is to relieve younger, unestablished starters early and often. They’re less likely to trip the six inning minimum for a QS. Veterans like Justin Verlander can be sneaky good.

The main drawback is that a QS general ensures a solid performance in ERA and WHIP. I don’t view this as a large problem like with OBP and OPS for hitters. Because a QS equates to a 4.50 ERA the correlation isn’t much different than wins. In my experience, the top Roto owners run a 3.00 ERA or lower. They’re nowhere near the QS threshold.

Twist #4: K/9 or K/BB

The K/9 twist is unnecessary in any league with an innings cap. Whether you use strikeouts or K/9, you’re already playing a K/9 league. It’s just that some of your rivals might not bother to hit the strikeout ceiling, ceding points in the process.

Using K/BB is a fun twist, but it suffers from the same problem as the above twists – statistical correlation. K/BB is a better measure of a pitcher’s skill than just raw strikeouts. It also better predicts ERA and WHIP. Even wins correlate at a higher rate. Pitchers with a good K/BB tend to be more efficient and work deeper into the game.