The A.L. Closer Report: 6/17

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up another run this week, against the Mets on June 12th. Mo’s ERA sits at 3.25 and his 0.88 WPA is merely good as opposed to great, but it’s hard to be terribly concerned about a pitcher with a 33/3 K/BB in 27.2 innings. If you want to be pessimistic, Rivera’s 83.8% contact rate is his highest mark going back to 2002, and the run value on his cutter this season (+0.85 runs per 100 pitches) is also his lowest since ’02.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim had an uncharacteristically bumpy week, blowing a save versus Cleveland on the 11th (stupid seagulls!) and coughing up a run and a homer against the Reds on the 13th (Ohio is not Mr. Soria’s favorite state). The Mexicutioner has been plenty nasty (14 K’s in 12.2 IP), but his control has been a little off: 6 walks with just 45.1% of his pitches crossing home plate (54.5% in 2008).

Joe Nathan, Twins

With 2 saves against the water-treading Cubs on June 12th and 13th, Nathan now holds a 4.83 K/BB ratio (8th among relievers) and is back in the double digits in terms of K’s per nine innings (10.3). Joe’s 31.8 Outside-Swing% is his highest we have going back to 2002.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is working on a seven-inning scoreless streak, and he has allowed just 1 hit in his last four appearances. Papelbon’s O-Swing% sits at 26.2%, below his 30.5% career mark. Hitters have hacked at 9 percent fewer of his offerings compared to last year, likely the result of Papelbon’s percent of pitches in the zone dropping from 54.5% in ’08 to 47.1% in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks blew a save and gave up a jack to Detroit’s Curtis Granderson on the 11th, then collected a save against the Brewers on the 14th. Bobby’s secondary offerings have been superb this season (+3.22 runs per 100 pitches on the slider, +1.71 on the curve), but his fastball (-0.96) hasn’t been as effective (+1.55 in ’07 and ’08).

Interestingly, the pitch is nearly 2 ticks faster than last year, but it has also shown nearly two additional inches of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters. Jenks’ problems have come primarily against lefties (.893 OPS, .575 vs. RHB). It could just be a coincidence, but perhaps southpaws are more comfortable at the plate, with most everything Jenks throws to them on the outside edge of the plate.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson will get any saves with Frank on the DL) , Rangers

Francisco was placed on the DL again, and he hopes to return to Texas within the next 10 days. In the meantime, Wilson will continue to get the call in save situations. He’s getting plenty of grounders (56.6%), but his K/BB ratio sits at a mundane 1.58 and his WPA (0.01) is just slightly in the black.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Downs suffered some sort of lower body injury in the 10th inning of last night’s contest with the Phillies. Based on performance, Jason Frasor (2.54 FIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio) would be the logical guy to take over the closer’s role if Downs goes on the DL, but it’s hard to say if the Jays would revert back to B.J. Ryan for the moment. Ryan’s fastball is still MIA, with an average speed of 87.5 MPH in June.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has seemingly shook off Ziegler in the contest to close out games for Oakland, a happy development for fantasy owners everywhere. The 6-3 rookie (on pace to throw 105 innings) has punched out 10.54 batters per nine innings, with a 2.87 FIP. The former starter has used his three-pitch mix to great effect: his fastball (+1.39), cutter (+1.57) and curveball (+3.59) have all befuddled batters.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood worked 2 scoreless frame in non-save situations on June 11th and 12th, and hasn’t taken the mound since. Kerry’s hopping mid-90’s heater hasn’t been particularly effective in 2009, with a run value of -1.9 per 100 pitches (+0.75 in 2008).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got into just one game this week, notching his 17th save of the year against the Giants on the 15th. LA’s new closer hasn’t had a whole lot of success with his slurvy breaking ball this season (-1.87 runs per 100 pitches, +2.06 last season). With Fuentes locating just 45.3% of his offerings in the zone, opponents have cut their outside-swing% from 29.4% in 2008 to 23.6% this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, with a scoreless frame against the Braves in a non-save situation on the 13th. George has increasingly placed fewer pitches in the strike zone (55% in ’07, 50.1 in ’08 and 47.1 in ’09), but his O-Swing has also gone up for a third year (21.1 in ’07, 26.3 in ’08 and 29.7 in ’09).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney picked up a save against Pittsburgh on June 12th, but he hasn’t taken the hill since. He had been doing a better job of hitting his spots in April and May, but Rodney’s percentage of pitches thrown over the plate (49.9%) is just slightly above the 49% average now after a turbulent June (43.8 Zone%). On the positive side, his groundball rate (56.5%) is well above his 45.7% average since 2002.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

With Morrow playing Hamlet yet again (to start, or not to start, that is the question), the ’06 first-rounder out of Cal has returned to the rotation. That apparently clears the way for Aardsma to keep the closer’s role, but he’s still playing with fire by walking nearly 6 hitters per nine innings. As a flyball pitcher flanked by three outstanding fielders in a homer-suppressing park, Aardsma is in a good spot. But still, the sub-.240 BABIP and 87.1% strand rate just aren’t going to keep up.

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Izzy is sadly headed for Tommy John surgery , and he may well have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Howell appears to be the man for the moment, and he’s certainly the option that fantasy folks were hoping for. The converted starter supplements his mild mid-80’s fastball with an outstanding curve and change. Howell has whiffed 40 in 32.1 frames, with a 67.3% contact rate that ranks 6th among relievers.