The A.L. Closer Report: 6/10

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Oh no, Mo: Rivera was stung for 4 runs in 0.2 innings against the Rays on June 6th, before collecting saves against Tampa the next two nights. While there’s some “what’s wrong with Rivera?!” hysteria going around, the answer might simply be, not much. His 3.20 ERA looks inflated, but a .336 BABIP and a very high HR/FB rate (23.8%, compared to a 6.6% career average) portend to better days ahead. He has a 15.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, folks. He’s okay.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria only got into one game this week (mop-up work in a 6-2 win over the Jays on the 6th), as the Royals plummet in the standings (10 losses in 11 games). Fun fact: Soria’s curve has been +2.7 runs above average in 2009 (7th among relievers), despite his throwing just 10.1 innings thus far.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan picked up two saves this week, against the Mariners on the 5th and the Athletics on the 9th. Joe’s 5.2 K/BB ratio is his highest mark since 2006, and he’s tossing a first-pitch strike 67.1 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average). He’s also jamming plenty of hitters, with a 21.7 infield/flyball percentage.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper converted a save op versus the Tigers on June 4th, then pitched a scoreless inning in a losing effort against Texas on the 7th. Papelbon’s fastball (used nearly 80% of the time) hasn’t quite been the dominating offering of years past. His heater’s run value was +3.29 per 100 pitches in 2007 and +2.21 in 2008, but just +0.93 this season. Then again, an “off” year for the 28 year-old is still pretty darned good: his WPA sits at 1.57, 8th among relievers.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks gave up a run in a none-save situation vs. the Indians on the 5th, but came back to get a save the next night with a scoreless frame. Bobby has given up more dingers than one would expect (15 HR/FB%), but otherwise he has been quite good. His 3.4 K/BB ratio is well above last year’s 2.24 mark, and his contact rate is down about 6 percent from last season.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Unfortunately, Frank is still plagued by shoulder soreness. Francisco hasn’t pitched since June 3rd, making a retroactive DL stint a possibility. C.J. Wilson gets any chances that come until Francisco is mended, but his 16/12 K/BB ratio and -0.12 WPA will have you reaching for the Tums if you’re forced to turn to him.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

After issuing just 2 free passes during the entire month of May, Downs walked two in 2.1 innings this past week. He still owns a sterling 25 K’s and 4 walks in 25.1 innings, good for a 6.25 K/BB ratio that nearly triples last season’s mark.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood continues to be wild, with 2 walks in 2.1 saveless frames this past week. Unable to locate his fastball (which has gone from a +0.75 run value per 100 pitches in ’08 to a lousy -2.6 in ’09), Wood isn’t getting anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. His 17.4 Outside-Swing% is fourth-worst among all relievers, with other control-challenged wrecks like Evan Meek and DFA’d Hayden Penn in the same neighborhood. With -0.1 WAR, Wood isn’t providing the kind of stability that the Tribe had in mind when they dished out 2 years and $20.5M on the free agent market.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes notched 3 saves this week, collecting one against the Jays on the 4th, the Tigers on the 5th and the Rays on the 9th. A .361 BABIP has done him no favors, though opponents are making contact against the former Rockie 79.5% of the time, well above any other season dating back to 2002. The increase has come primarily on pitches within the strike zone (88 Z-Contact% in 2009, compared to 80.4% in 2008; the MLB average is 87.7%).

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Luckily for fantasy owners, Bailey appears to be the man in Oakland. He picked up saves on the 7th and the 8th, and if he continues to get the call, he’ll be in “Death Grip” territory in short order. Bailey now has a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, with a 2.92 FIP. The 25 year-old rookie has the stuff and strikeout potential to be an elite reliever.

George Sherrill, Orioles

George gave out a run and a walk over two appearances this week, notching a save against his former team (the Mariners) last night. Sherrill’s 3.04 BB/9 is the lowest rate of his career, though opposing hitters are increasingly making more contact with his stuff. Sherrill’s K rate, 11.04 per nine in ’07, dropped to 9.79 in ’08 and 8.37 this season. Over that same time frame, his Z-Contact rate (the contact rate on pitches within the strike zone) has jumped from 80.8 in ’07, 84.2 in ’08 and 92 in 2009. That’s the 9th-highest rate of zone contact among all relievers.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Uh oh: Rodney resembled his former wild-child self this past week. In 4 frames and five appearances, Fernando was torched for 6 runs and five walks, including 3 runs and 3 walks without getting an out versus the White Sox last night. Rodney had seemingly made strides in painting the corners, but he has located just 46.3% of his pitches within the zone during the month of June, compared to 48.8% in May and 58.7% in April.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Aardsma recovered from a bumpy 3-run fiasco on May 31st to post scoreless innings on June 3rd, 5th and 6th. He’s still asking for trouble, however, with 2 more walks in 3 innings. The chances of a guy remaining effective with a walk rate pushing six and a half are between slim and none. Selling high here would likely be the best option, unless you want to wager that Aardsma’s 87.1% strand rate (73.5% career average) and .247 BABIP (.316 career) will persist.

Morrow took baby steps toward reclaiming the ninth-inning gig, tossing 3 innings of scoreless baseball. Here’s a question: since we can pretty much rule out a return to the rotation for the former Cal star, would it be best for the M’s to leave Morrow where he is, soaking up a few innings at a time (4 of his last 6 relief appearances have gone 2 or more innings)? Why can’t Morrow become a Tekulve-like bullpen arm, going 2-3 innings every few days?

Update: Um, scratch that. Apparently, Morrow WILL go back to the rotation. Tune in tomorrow for the next episode of “As the Morrow Turns.”

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

So, who’s the guy here? Howell picked up a save against the Royals on June 4th, and he’s by far the most intriguing option. J.P. has K’d 11.1 batters per nine innings, with a 2.37 FIP. Southpaw specialist Choate also picked up a save, but he likely isn’t a serious contender. Howell is the most talented guy, but might he be better utilized in his customary 4 and 5 out appearances than in a strict, rigid 9th inning role?