The Ability to Do Damage in a 3-2 Count
Hitting in a 3-2 count in the major leagues must be very difficult. Think about it. Try to remove everything besides the count. Don’t worry about the runners, or lack thereof, on base. Try not to think of how many outs there are or what inning it is in or even how many runs are on the score-board. Instead, think of just the hitter and what they are trying to do, get on base.
Every hitter likely has an approach in a 3-2 count and that approach is also likely to be molded to their skill set. Really good at reading the ball out of the pitcher’s hand? Take a close 3-2 pitch and end up standing on first base. More of a “swing for the fences” type of hitter? Get that front foot down and swing away!
Here’s a look at those two approaches and how different hitters perform in 3-2 counts:
Players like Josh Naylor are selling out for power. Christian Walker and Patrick Wisdom have the ability to crush the ball while also taking their walks a fair amount of time. Juan Soto? He’s Juan Soto. Donovan Solano, Jason Heyward, and Geraldo Perdomo are working on that walk and if they do hit, it will be more contact-oriented. Then there’s Andrew Vaughn, who probably needs to re-consider his 3-2 approach. Lastly, see that data point sitting on the y-axis? Anthony Rendon’s approach seems to be to not swing whatsoever.
Here’s a quick look at two players on opposite ends of the scatter plot and one random example of their 3-2 approach:
Andrew Vaughn:
0-0: Called Strike, 0-1: Swinging Strike, 0-2: Ball, 1-2: Ball, 2-2: Ball, 3-2: Ball-in-play (out)
In this series, Vaughn impressively works his way out of a 0-2 count but fails to put a good swing on the 3-2 pitch.
Christian Walker:
0-0: Swinging Strike, 0-1: Ball, 1-1: Ball, 2-1: Foul, 2-2: Foul, 2-2: Ball, 3-2: Home run
In this series, Walker’s most impressive moment comes when he lays off a 2-2 pitch to bring the count full. He was lucky enough to get a good pitch to hit, but he took advantage of it.
Smoking a baseball to dead center field for a home run in a 3-2 count is a great thing to do, but when the ball is not in the strike zone and can’t be smoked to center field, it’s also really important to lay off. The MLB average SLG in 3-2 counts is sitting at .326 with BB% at 32.0%. For now, let’s focus on that meaty cluster in the center of this scatter plot and even move more into the upper-right quadrant. Who is well above average in both SLG and BB% in 3-2 counts?
| Name | BB% | SLG |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 43.9% | 0.568 |
| Aaron Judge | 38.8% | 0.552 |
| Juan Soto | 51.0% | 0.542 |
| Randy Arozarena | 43.8% | 0.529 |
| Jake Fraley | 40.0% | 0.524 |
| Isaac Paredes | 38.2% | 0.500 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 43.5% | 0.486 |
| Jorge Soler | 40.0% | 0.465 |
| Mookie Betts | 41.8% | 0.447 |
| Joey Meneses | 40.9% | 0.423 |
| J.D. Martinez | 40.5% | 0.417 |
| Nick Senzel | 45.2% | 0.412 |
The key here is that these hitters are able to make solid contact even when they are in a tough position. Some contact hitters may just think, “I’m not going down on strikes” and swing away. That approach may get a batter on base every now and then but it also leads to soft contact and balls in play that turn into outs. No, the hitters in the table above are able to pick out their pitch and do damage on it, even when there’s nowhere else to go in the count. Hitting with two strikes on you is hard, but hitters are able to find their pitch, overall, more often as the count evens out or gets full:
If a hitter has a high slugging percentage in a 3-2 count in one season, can they do it again in the next season? The short answer is maybe:
All 12 players who were listed in the table above as having above-average SLG and BB% in 3-2 counts also have a 2023 wRC+ greater than 100. From this, we could infer that the ability to hit for power and/or walk in a 3-2 count is an indication of a really good hitter. Duh! But, how about players who are getting better and better at doing both of those things? Here is a list of players who have improved both their ability to walk in 3-2 counts and their ability to slug right through it:
| Name | Full_BB% | Full_SLG | Apr_BB% | May_BB% | June_BB% | Apr_SLG | May_SLG | June_SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 43.9% | 0.568 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 47.4% | 0.333 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| Mookie Betts | 41.8% | 0.447 | 36.4% | 42.1% | 47.1% | 0.143 | 0.364 | 0.875 |
| Jake Meyers | 37.8% | 0.214 | 36.4% | 38.5% | 50.0% | 0.000 | 0.125 | 0.625 |
| Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 | 31.7% | 0.233 | 21.1% | 35.0% | 35.7% | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.444 |
Improving your ability as a hitter to do two important things well, I theorize, is a solid indication of good performance moving forward. Sure, I’d have to attempt to test and prove that theory with further analysis, but is that necessary? Perhaps when you are searching for hitters to add or trade for as we move into “go time” as fantasy managers, you should search for improvements in two specific areas, BB% and SLG, but when the pressure of two strikes is on.