Swimming Is Boring. Keon Broxton Is Not.

Last week, I wrote about two players straddling the borderline between deep and standard league relevance. But my beat is the Deep League Waiver Wire. So this week we take a look at one Mr. Keon Broxton and how he can address your need for speed and perhaps even mix in a little power while he’s at it.

Recently, much hullabaloo has been made about the stark increase in home runs we’ve all enjoyed watching this season. Well, not all of us. Juiced balls, smaller strike zones, and the proliferation of stat cast data are all theories (or conspiracies) that might help us to explain the sudden surge in power. But what about the dearth of speed plaguing and frustrating fantasy owners? While dingers may be on the rise, Major League hitters are on pace to combine for the 4^th lowest stolen base total since 2000. But don’t tell that to Keon Broxton (1% Yahoo, 0.5% ESPN, 3% CBS). Milwaukee’s fleet-footed center fielder is doing his best to rectify that while also proving his bat may not be the afterthought many anticipated.

Already on his 4^th stint with the big club this season, Broxton has swiped ten bags with just one caught stealing to his name. His steal attempts per plate appearance ranks 7^th out of 384 players with a minimum of 100 trips to the batter’s box. He ranks behind such speedsters as Billy Hamilton, Travis Jankowski, Jonathan Villar, and Starling Marte. What makes Broxton intriguing is that out of those top 7, he owns the highest ISO and walk rate hinting at a significant power-speed combination that plays particularly well in OBP leagues.

Now a 90 wRC+ hardly inspires confidence and Broxton’s 39.1% strikeout rate is downright puzzling considering he seemingly lacks the ability to offer at pitches off the plate. Nor is this a new problem. Broxton struck out in 30% of his plate appearances last season at AA. However, in his first extended exposure to Major League pitching, he has steadily cut his strikeouts while raising an already prolific walk rate to what would rank 4th in the league had he the plate appearances to qualify. These are promising developments for anyone but particularly for someone whose value is tied to an ability to get to first and then steal second.

Above is a graph of Broxton’s 15 game rolling average BB%, K%, and Contact%. Certainly, he’s trending in the right direction. So what’s changed exactly? If we divide Broxton’s season into two parts (I know, I know – we’re already working with small sample sizes here but bear with me) the changes become more apparent.

We’re looking at Broxton’s Swing% in his first two MLB stints this season on the left and in his next two stints on the right. Broxton is clearly more aggressive now than he was earlier in the year, particularly in the zone middle-in. While his chase rate appears to have crept up a bit, he’s taking significantly fewer strikes and doing more with them. And the numbers back this up.

By the way, that 95.2 mph average exit velocity ranks 36^th in baseball over that time. Still, Broxton is not without his flaws. Even considering his recent strides he still strikes out far too often, potentially leading to prolonged slumps, and hits too many grounders which places a ceiling on his burgeoning power output. It’s also worth drawing attention to the severity of his platoon splits; he manages a meager 48 wRC+ against like-handed pitching. One would hardly blame manager, Craig Counsell, for relegating Broxton to the short side of a platoon.

Despite these risks, Broxton is worth the flier. The strikeouts border on obscene but his selectivity has resulted in a 15.8% walk rate, 11th among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. And yes, while a ground ball rate north of 50% tends to cap one’s homer potential, Broxton’s speed allows him to maintain inflated BABIPs. Obviously, these are two vital components to reaching base and creating stolen base opportunities.

He’s also finding himself in the lineup against righties more often than his splits might justify. Broxton is widely regarded as an excellent outfielder, which may have something to do it. Though if we take a closer look at his heat maps, it’s clear he’s improving at the plate as well.

That’s Broxton’s slugging percentage against righties during his first two stints on the left and in his most recent two stints on the right. Clearly, the speedy center fielder is carving out an increased roll both with his bat and glove.

So chasing less, swinging at pitches in the zone more, increasingly even platoon splits, all while making harder contact? Broxton has flashed some power in the minors and if this new profile allows him to tap into that at the Big League level, that’s obviously great and something we should all be interested in. He’s always had issues with breaking and off-speed pitches so perhaps pitchers will begin to adjust at which point, Broxton has to show that he can adjust back. But even in the face of alarmingly low contact abilities, his plate discipline sets a high enough floor for stolen base attempts that he can be owned in deep and NL-only leagues. For the time being, Keon Broxton has seemingly found that happy place between passivity and selectivity. His value on the base paths relies on his ability to occupy that space and as long as he does, he should also occupy a spot on your roster.