Streaming Options for Stolen Bases

If you’re going to stream at any position or for any category, a lot of preparation can go into the dissection of matchups. Fantasy baseball players, in general, may be putting too much stock in matchups for starting pitchers, as Brett Talley may have discovered. If such toil for what is surely the most commonly streamed position might be futile, then it seems rational to question whether it’s even worth the time to do so for something like steals.

But Brett admits that he intuitively questions his results, so we’re going to give it a shot. The return on investment for this kind of homework might be pretty low, regardless. Given the type of data I put together last week to serve as a potential resource for this sort of thing, what goes into a recommendation is pretty simple. As I basically wrote then, the greater challenge for the batter is to reach base, not to pilfer one should he have the opportunity.

Having said that, if you’re in search of stolen bases, then I hope that it’s in small part because a couple of players are no longer on your waiver wire. (Ownership percentages are in parentheses.) The Minnesota Twins’ Jordan Schafer (CBS, 25%; Yahoo!, 15%; ESPN, 29.4%) was the lead entry in Mike Podhorzer’s Four Widely Available Speedsters for Stretch Run a month ago. Karl de Vries made Juan Lagares (CBS, 14%; Yahoo!, 7%; ESPN, 5.4%) a subject of his most recent Deep League Wire entry.

Before I go any further, I want to mention that there are a few wild cards in this proposition, as I see it.

Rusney Castillo will join the parent club this month, “barring something unforeseen.” There might be an adjustment period, as there seems to have been for other Cuban imports who boast speed as an asset, so he may not be ready to run right away. I have my doubts about whether he’ll be much of a fantasy asset, period now or later, but I don’t want to dismiss him and discourage you from targeting him. I’d place him after Schafer and Lagares, though, at minimum.

I suppose that the Pittsburgh Pirates are disappointed with the start of Gregory Polanco’s major league career. I think that their reaction might have been a little excessive. Given what we’ve seen from Andrew Lambo in prior stints, if Travis Snider (hamstring issue) is out for much longer, then it’s reasonable to think that Polanco re-enters the picture. I’d want Polanco, in that scenario, before Castillo as well.

Drew Stubbs has relatively high ownership rates – not as high as a Kolten Wong’s, but close. Stubbs should be much less attractive once Michael Cuddyer (strained hamstring) returns, however. Still, it’s unlikely that enough of his owners would drop him to matter for this exercise. Not yours, mine.

After that, then, we’re talking about players who are definitely not full-timers. They’re possible solutions for those in deep leagues or leagues in which you make lineup changes daily. I’m just going to list several players whose ownership rates are less than or roughly equal to Lagares’, play in at least a few games in any given week and run relatively often. Somebody among the recs should be available to the vast majority of you. I’ll highlight the matchups – only in terms of thefts – which appear to be most advantageous.

OF Jarrod Dyson, Kansas City Royals @NYY (3), @DET (3), BOS (4)

Dyson is such a good base-stealer that he might be a must-play, regardless, but the point is to attempt to be judicious. Every scheduled starter coming up is right-handed, so it appears promising. But against the New York Yankees, you’d prefer a day that Brian McCann gets a break from behind the plate, or perhaps even the day off when Danny Duffy takes the hill. Brandon McCarthy is the only definite bullseye, otherwise, because data is limited on others. Next week, if you’re aiming, just skip Rick Porcello’s start and pick a day or days that Christian Vazquez doesn’t catch, because the overall BoSox matchup is misleading.

OF Anthony Gose, Toronto Blue Jays @TBR (1), @BOS (3), CHC (3), TBR (3)

The Jays are scheduled to face RHPs, with the exception of Drew Smyly, for a week and a half straight. Skip Jake Odorizzi’s start on Thursday (today), however. As mentioned, avoid Vazquez at any time next week, if you can help it. Gose could run wild in that series with the Chicago Cubs – or at least versus Jacob Turner and Jake Arrieta, who are true marks – some of the truest, in fact. The entire home series versus the Tampa Bay Rays looks like an average matchup.

3B Jimmy Paredes, Baltimore Orioles CIN (1), @TBR (3), @BOS (3), NYY (4)

Paredes has been playing because Steve Pearce has a mild abdominal strain, so it’s reasonable to think that Paredes will continue to play for a bit. He’s hit so far, and he’s a switch hitter, so handedness may not be a factor in his PT. The ducks on this schedule are limited to Mike Leake, Alex Cobb and McCarthy, however. And, one more time, watch out for Vazquez in the Beantown slate. Basically, the same rules apply to new O Alejandro De Aza, a LHB, should he draw some starts versus any of those RHPs.

OF Craig Gentry, Oakland Athletics HOU (3), @CHW (4), @SEA (3)

The good matchups this weekend are against RHPs, so if Gentry finagles a start against them, super. Avoid Dallas Keuchel, at least for the hope of a stolen base. Same with Chris Sale next week, as if it’s hard to convince someone to avoid Sale anyway. Jose Quintana isn’t a great deal better, but maybe he won’t be paired with an OK Tyler Flowers. The Chicago White Sox have a couple of TBD spots, so cross your fingers there. Just in case, RHP Chris Young is a good matchup. James Paxton, the LHP in that series, is less so, but it can be done. An unfortunate stretch where the LHPs, who typically have better pickoff moves anyway, are really good.

OF Ezequiel Carrera, Detroit Tigers @CLE (1), SFG (3), KCR (3), CLE (3)

Not a good-looking span upcoming for the speedy Carrera. It’s nice that you have to avoid LHPs with him, anyway, but it’d really help to find the RHPs who are vulnerable, because the backstops for these clubs are between solid and good. Trevor Bauer … maybe, times two. Jake Peavy, nah. Tim Hudson, sure thing. Jeremy Guthrie is another maybe; James Shields is a probably not. Carlos Carrasco has been a little tough, but the samples for him and Danny Salazar are too small to pan their matchups. Carrasco’s velo has to be lower now that he’s starting again, so he, at least, should be more susceptible.

It’s only by accident that all these players are in the American League. I apologize to the NL-only owners out there. Based on what I saw in the player pool, I’d consider going after points elsewhere.

There are leagues in which a bench player who could be used as a pinch runner or some other style of late-game sub this month might be a viable option to help you gain roto points quickly. It’d be virtually pointless for me to explore all those options, so I encourage you to try to make use of the matchup data on your own for those stabs. I’d download it, refresh the data (or, if you can’t or just refuse, comment or Tweet at me, and I’d be happy to e-mail it to you), and check out the day’s matchups.

If you think this is worthwhile, then let me know, and I’ll repeat next week. Similar info may start to appear in The Daily Grind as well or instead.