Strategy Session – Steals Early and Late

I don’t know about you, but stolen bases are incredibly annoying for me. There are very few players who can steal bases and help in other ways as well, and these players naturally tend to be highly valued. As such, I’ve developed a strategy for steals: try to get ‘em early, and then wait until late. Here’s why:

There aren’t many guys who can steal 30+ bases and hit for power. There are a fair amount of guys who can steal a bunch of bases and not really do much else, however. The five dimensional players like Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are among the best in the game, and are probably first round picks. Then there are the few players who can be counted on for a ton of steals, even if they won’t add too much power, like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes. If you can get any of these guys, go for it, as they provide a tremendous amount of value. However, these types of players are almost always drafted before the third round, and it’s difficult to get one of them, let alone two.

After these types of players, there is a huge drop off among speedsters. A guy who will steal 20-30 bases with a decent batting average and nothing else just isn’t very valuable in a fantasy league, since he really only provides value in one category, and often times not even that much value. Avoid these types of players, as they are almost always overvalued. People are (rightly) concerned with the scarcity of speed, but they don’t understand that you can often find speedy players at the end of the draft.

Yes, usually these speedsters have more flaws than their fellow base stealers who are drafted earlier, but the difference in value is minimal. If you miss out on someone like Reyes or Sizemore, you still need to address steals, but you don’t particularly care if the guy also hits 2 homers or 11 homers. The difference in the amount of homers he hits is negligible – it’s all about the steals. The same goes for other categories. You don’t really care how many runs he drives in, you just want thefts. Don’t pay extra for minimal upgrades in other categories.

Be sure to add enough steals to your team, but don’t worry if you have to get the bulk of your steals late in the draft with such no-name players as Eugenio Velez, Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez or Rajai Davis. Their thefts are just as valuable as someone like Chone Figgins’s, and the difference in other categories is not usually big enough to warrant the higher draft position of someone like Figgins.

Make sure you have enough steals on your team, but don’t worry if you have to wait until late in the draft to add that category to your team.