Stoppin’ Short
This was going to be a rankings update, because it’s been six weeks since we last looked at the shortstops, but amazingly little has changed. There’s still Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins at the top, some okay guys four-through-eight, and then a whole bunch of leftovers.
Instead let’s look at some guys near the bottom, just in case you are looking for an injury replacement, or your current shortstop is just killing you. They might be on your mixed- or deep-league waiver wire, and can provide some short-term help.
Stephen Drew, Arizona (60% owned)
The younger Drew has not had a great month, going .224 with three home runs and no stolen bases, but he was just part of a four-home-run-in-a-row onslaught that could awaken the bat. His current .146 ISO is well below his career number (.170) and since ISO takes the longest to become predictable (550 plate appearances, and Drew has 435 PAs), there’s still some hope left that the power returns. The speed scores have stayed steady around 5.8, so he looks like he’s got above-average speed (5.0 is average) and will sprinkle some steals in. With his batting average currently batted-ball luck neutral (.301 BABIP), we can’t expect a lot in that category. With a little power boost, though, he could best his ZiPs RoS without too much effort.
Yunel Escobar, Toronto (49% owned)
It seems that the change of venue has treated Escobar well. He’s gone .306/.344/.447 since the trade, and those are entirely repeatable numbers based on his .292/.367/.405 career numbers and the power drought he was mired in earlier in the season. Since joining the Jays, Escobar has eschewed the walk (4.3%, 9.5% career) in favor of some pop (.141 ISO, .114 career ISO) – that should sound familiar to anyone watching the “Grip It & Rip It” Jays right now. They have the fourth-worst walk rate in the American League, and the best ISO by far (.210 to the Red Sox’ .189). It remains to be seen how this affects Escobar long term, but more power would make him a fringe mixed-league candidate. He still hits too many balls on the ground to really be a power threat, and his speed scores (3.4 career) make him a poor pickup for steals. But if you need a little batting average and the occasional home run, Escobar is in the right place right now.
Brendan Ryan, St. Louis (3% owned)
Ryan is no great shakes. That much should be obvious from his career wRC+ (85) if not from any of his other underwhelming statistics. He has no power (.090 career ISO) and last year’s 14 steals were a career high. But as fantasy players, you all know that shortstop is a tough position to fill. The average wOBA of qualifying shortstops this year is .311, while the average wOBA across all positions is .324. Suddenly his 85 wRC+ doesn’t look as bad next to the average shortstop’s 96 wRC+. Ryan has also been working on his swing by reducing his movement – a development than anyone who has watched Ryan would welcome. We know all about the horrors of the small sample size, but since the break, Ryan has put up a .299/.333/.338 line that looks sustainable given the fact that his BABIP regression (currently .251) will hopefully help him continue to push his currently horrid line back to his career norms.
Jed Lowrie, Boston (1% owned)
It’s possible that Jed Lowrie is actually Yunel-Escobar-lite. He has poor speed (3.7 career speed score), and the power hasn’t shown itself yet (.137 ISO career). But his career has been so short to date because of his myriad injuries (436 PAs) that his ISO has not stabilized yet. His best season in the minor leagues was his healthiest, when he put up 498 combined ABs between Double- and Triple-A and had a combined .290/.387/.495 park- and luck-adjusted line according to MinorLeagueSplits.com. Of course, the MLE for that (.243/.318/.397) looks a lot like his major league line so far (.244/.327/.381), so maybe this is what we get. He can definitely take a walk, though (11.5% career walk rate), and has value in OBP leagues. So far in August, he has 24 ABs in 12 Red Sox games, which is just barely relevant. If the Sox fall further out of it, they may just want to see what they have in the young dude.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Rollins is elite? What about Tulo. You are really dense.
Eh, I’ve been called stupid for how high I had Tulo, too. The power drought since the injury is enough for me to put him somewhere around 5/6. Just a throw-away line in the end.
wow, just checked Rollins’ numbers… Guess since I wasn’t actually writing about him, nor do I own him in any of my 12 leagues, I just ignored him for the most part. I don’t expect his ISO to stay so low, and I don’t think he’s just going to fall off a cliff like this, but you’re probably right that in the rankings for next year, Tulo/Hanley and possibly Reyes are the only guys I’d put in the top tier.
Could be worth a post of his own though.
Rollins was already pretty crappy last year, and was only decent (as a fantasy player, that is) in 2008 too. I didn’t understand all offseason why people had so much faith in him and I still don’t. He hasn’t been an elite, first three rounds player since 2007, but he was still being picked that early in most leagues. Talk about overpaying for production.
I’m not going that far. His 2009 .250 20/30 is not crappy. It’s like Dunn at SS. Who else hit as many as 20 and stole as many as 30 at short? No-one. Tulo went 30/20, Hanley 24/27… It’s just one category short of elite. I mean, I didn’t end up paying what other people did, but he’s still a top shortstop because it’s a bad position.
Tulo probably read this and went into HULK SMASH MODE.