Stock Watch: 7/6

Stock Up

Brad Penny, Red Sox

A fastball-centric pitcher (throwing his heater nearly 71 percent of the time during his career), Penny saw his 2008 season blow up like a cheap ACME bomb as a shoulder injury robbed him of his cheddar (-1.44 runs/100 fastballs). The 31 year-old reclamation project got off to a rough start in Boston (6 K’s and 11 walks in 17.2 April innings), but Penny has heated up as his fastball has improved. Check out this trend:

Penny’s runs/100 value for his fastball

April: -2.95
May: +0.24
June: +0.82
July: +0.44

Penny’s FIP is down to 4.21 in 2009, with 6.19 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Dave Cameron noted Pavano’s unusually strong performance earlier this season , as the oft-injured tabloid punch line finally made some noise on the field. It was starting to look as though another injury was bothering Carl, as he surrendered a stunning 23 runs in a three-start stretch from June 10th to the 24th. However, Pavano has rebounded to turn in two excellent starts vs. the light-hitting White Sox and A’s (a combined 9 K, 2 BB and 4 R in 13.2 IP). The 33 year-old has an inflated 5.36 ERA in 2009 (the product of a .344 BABIP), but his FIP sits at a stellar 3.74.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

After suffering some absurdly high BABIP figures early in the season, Nolasco has been on a roll as of late. Then again, he wasn’t exactly pitching poorly prior to his demotion to AAA:

April: 2.44 K/BB, .393 BABIP
May: 3.75 K/BB, .285 BABIP
June: 6.6 K/BB, .284 BABIP
July: 6.0 K/BB, .214 BABIP

Nolasco’s K rate is up this year (8.72 from 7.88 in 2008), and he’s still been pretty sharp with his control (2.13 BB/9). His FIP checks in at 3.38 (over two runs lower than his 5.42 ERA) after a 12-strikeout mauling of the Pirates on Sunday.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

St. Louis’ number one prospect has been pretty aggressive at the dish (5 BB%, with a 51.3 Swing% above the 45% MLB average), but it’s pretty difficult to criticize a 22 year-old with a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .350. The lefty has already accumulated 2.6 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, third among all center fielders. Some of that is due to Colby posting out-of-his-mind UZR numbers (+26.9 UZR/150), but he has smacked 10 homers (including 3 already this month). His control of the zone should improve as he gains experience. Rasmus posted a walk rate of nearly 13 percent at AAA Memphis in 2008.

Brandon Inge, Tigers

Freed from the intense physical demands of the catching position, Inge has gone on a power binge that includes 19 big flys and a .374 wOBA. Inge’s .244 ISO is over 80 points above his career average (.162). While it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect this level of lumber production to persist, Inge is a better hitter than his career .239/.308/.401 line would indicate. That line is weighed down by a .199/.260/.330 showing in nearly 1,300 PA’s as a backstop. As a third baseman, Inge is a career .258/.330/.435 batter. That’s about what ZiPS expects from the 32 year-old during the rest of the ’09 season (.250/.331/.433).

Stock Down

Joe Saunders, Angels

A few months back, I wondered just how long Saunders could continue to post a mid-three’s ERA despite a minuscule K rate. Joe’s strikeout totals have trended upward as of late (6.2 K/9 in May and 6.6 K/9 in June), but the extra punchouts have come with more free passes (2.59 BB/9 in May, 3.79 BB/9 in June). Saunders’ ERA now sits at 4.44. According to XFIP (which judges a pitcher based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate), the lefty has trended south for the 4th straight season. He compiled a 4.58 XFIP in 2006, 4.62 in ’07, 4.75 in ’08 and 5.05 this year. This is basically who Saunders is: an average Joe 4th or 5th starter.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Without revisiting the whole starter/reliever debate (which isn’t much of a debate when one digs deeper), Chamberlain still needs to make strides in terms of being more efficient on the bump. Joba just hasn’t located all the well this season, with 4.36 BB/9. The former Cornhusker has placed just 43.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49.2% MLB average. With Joba battling his control, opposing batters have wisely kept the bat on their shoulders. Hitters have swung at just 37.9% of Chamberlain’s pitches (45% MLB average). The 23 year-old has an awfully bright future, but he’s not quite ready for prime time.

Brendan Harris, Twins

It’s a little strange that the Twins have decided to play a lesser defender at a premium position, but Harris has compensated by doing his best Punto impression at the dish (.302 wOBA). The 28 year-old righty batter posted a .341 wOBA as a regular with the Devil Rays in 2007, then turned in a .318 wOBA in his first year with the Twins. In ’09, Harris has barely cracked a .100 ISO (.103), while walking just 6 percent of the time. Breaking stuff has stymied him this year (-1.76 runs/100 pitches against sliders, -0.94 versus curveballs).

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics

With Scott Hairston now in green and gold, Sweeney could find himself relegated to fourth outfielder duty. A former top prospect with the White Sox, Sweeney is now 24 years old. The power some had anticipated developing in his 6-4, 215 pound frame just hasn’t appeared: his career ISO in the majors is .091. Sweeney is a gifted fielder; maybe he’ll develop in a Randy-Winn type whose glove compensates for a lack of punch. But the more likely scenario entails a long career as an extra fly catcher.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals

The fact that Duncan is even playing Major League Baseball is a testament to modern medicine, as he had a prosthetic disc inserted into his back last year. However, the 6-5, 230 pounder appears to have left some of his thump on the operating table. Duncan creamed the ball in 2006 (.296 ISO) and 2007 (.221), but that figure dipped to .117 during an injury-marred 2008 season and hasn’t recovered much in the first half of the year (.139). The 28 year-old hit the ball on the ground just 39.9% of the time in 2007, but that mark has climbed to 50.3% in 2009. Combine Duncan’s less-than-thunderous bat with his normally rocky fielding, and you have a replacement-level player (0.1 WAR).