Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 100 Hitters

With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Steamer Projection: 665 PAs, 40 HR, 102 R, 113 RBI, 6 SBs, .292/.369/554

Vlad is coming off of a “down season” because he took a step back in power, but he was actually the 21st best hitter in fantasy so I don’t know why he is being slept on as one of the safer first round picks especially with the addition of chip in speed we saw in 2022. Sure, he won’t be a 48-homer bat but I buy a lot of what steamer is putting down for him and getting a five category first baseman is pretty hard to do. I actually got him in the second round of my first draft this year and was pretty stoked that he felt that far. In a season I am really prioritizing power hitting guys with good batting average, I think he is clearly the most underrated first rounder right now, if that is even possible.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Steamer Projection: 539 PAs, 37 HR, 92 R, 94 RBI, 20 SBs, .283/.365/

This one has everything to do with the suspension. With San Diego going deep into the playoffs, Tatis is eligible to return on April 20th and with that information, I think his ADP will rise. There are still a lot of questions with the shoulder even after receiving surgery on it, but on a pure talent prospective, he is a top five pick. My guess is that he will be a first round pick very soon (he went 15th in a 12-team draft I just started.) I don’t know if I can pull that trigger with his question marks, but considering he is outfield eligible and the outfield position is about as shallow as it has ever been, I can understand the argument.

George Springer Steamer Projection: 672 PAs, 31 HR, 101 R, 82 RBI, 12 SBs, .258/.339/.473

This is an interesting one for me. I am a big fan of Springer, but I don’t understand how Steamer can project him to play in 146 games when he has only played that many games in the Major Leagues once in his entire career and that was back in 2016. I love the power speed combination you get from him, but I would probably project him for about 130 games and about 570 plate appearances which would drop his projections to 570 PAs, 26 HR, 86 R, 70 RBI, 10 SBs, .258/.339/.473 and that would put him around hitter number 86 which be around pick 150 so in spite of Steamer saying he is being underdrafted, I think he is likely being overdrafted based on his health track record.

Eloy Jimenez Steamer Projection: 627 PAs, 32 HR, 81 R, 98 RBI, 1 SB, .273/.331/.494

This one is not surprising at all to me. Once Eloy came back from injury he was one of the best hitters in baseball hitting .323/.391/.558 with 14 home runs in the second half. With the news that the White Sox will not be having him play the field, there is a belief that he will be healthier because of that. Eloy has had five injuries in his Major League time and three of them came in the field. One happened while celebrating Lucas Giolito’s home run and the last came running the bases. I do worry about his ability to stay healthy being so big and muscular, but this is a pretty nice discount if you believe he can play the projected 146 games and the outfield being so bad is a reason to be willing to take the gamble at his current ADP.

Alejandro Kirk Steamer Projections: 541 PAs, 19 HR, 71 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB, .285/.371/.467

This is one I am pretty surprised by. Kirk struggled in the second half hitting .246/.340/.320 with three home runs. It appears that Steamer is buying into his big first half. While there are some concerns with the dropoff, he is definitely better than the second half showed.

The two biggest things that jump out to me are the big drops in BABIP and HR/FB percentage. Now, he doesn’t get a complete pass as the drop in barrel percentage and HR/FB has to do with the lowering of his launch angle in the second half, but I would expect those to come back up a bit. I think he is a pretty fair price hitting in the middle of that great Blue Jays’ lineup.

Seiya Suzuki Steamer Projection: 631 PAs, 26 HR, 83 R, 80 RBI, 11 SBs, .262/.349/.465

Man, this one irks me a little. Not because I am not a believer, but because I am worried about Suzuki’s price going forward. I am a huge believer in Seiya for this season. He was the only hitter in baseball with a top 25 barrel percentage and a top 25 z-contact in the second half. In spite of those nice underlying numbers, his second half wRC+ was 107 which was good for 80th among qualified hitters. I am hoping that his hype train doesn’t go crazy because I think he is a really nice value at a very weak position.