Stealing Signs in Fantasy Baseball

Make no mistake, the Houston Astros are not the only baseball team stealing signs. They’re simply the most cavalier with their flaunting of convention. They chose to be confident about their narrow reading of the rules. They allege their actions to steal signs were legal because they used an already existing outfield camera. Basically, they claim to have misinterpreted the rules. Clearly they broke the spirit if not the letter. We’ll see if they’re truly punished or merely slapped upon the wrists.

This, of course, isn’t about real teams stealing signs. I want to focus on the fantasy equivalent. Whether you think of it as sign stealing or “reading” an opponent like a poker player, there is indisputable value to predicting and anticipating the actions of your rivals. The comments are open for you to share the ways you steal signs.

Common Projections

The FanGraphs auction calculator is an invaluable tool for building quick and dirty auction sheets and ADPs. It has become more customizable over the years, allowing us to incorporate a range of projection systems. As FanGraphs readers, many of you know at least half your league will reference the tool in some way.

However, once it’s made available, most people opt to use a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS projections. If you’re in an auction league, this will serve as a free cheat sheet to the players who will be coveted. It might also indicate who will slip through the cracks – just find the guys whose public projections most widely diverge from your own. If you know enough of your rivals are using the calculator, consider taking a contrarian approach to pricing.

In snake drafts, the site ADP is probably the most informative signal. If your leaguemates have particular experts they subscribe to such as Paul Sporer’s pitcher rankings, it could pay to figure out who they like and dislike.

Trade and Waiver Tells

Humans and fantasy owners are creatures of habit. Many of us telegraph when and how we plan to use the waiver wire. Often, this is proceeded by efforts to make a two-for-one trade. Unless an injured player needs to be activated, such efforts are a sure sign your rival perceives a great value to be freely available on the wire. You could (and should) try to identify the player for yourself, although it’s likely you won’t necessarily agree about the perceived value. Instead, work the phone lines. Your opponent might be so keen to open a roster space that they’ll hand you an easy win. Sometimes, they’ll even (arguably, always arguably) toss you the best player in the trade.

Tells in ottoneu are especially easy to spot. The format uses two-day auctions for all free agent additions. Frequently, an owner will cut players in sequence with putting a player up for auction. While knowing who wants a specific free agent won’t always spur you to action, you could consider price enforcing against certain foes.

Tactical Patterns

Again, humans like habit. It’s amazing how many fantasy managers build their team the same way year after year. Others will stumble mindlessly into whatever groupthink emerged from the most recent season. Even my flexible and much ballyhooed contrarian approach is predictable in its unpopularity. It’s not hard to anticipate what I’ll avoid – basically anybody everyone else loves (Mike Trout excluded).

If you know a tough opponent has a certain cadence to their roster building, consider building disruptions into your own strategy and tactics. In an auction league, an owner who spends half his budget on top pitchers should be price enforced early. And while it needn’t be stated, if said owner rarely contends, let them fall down their rat hole to ignominious obscurity.

Prompt

So. What do you do to steal signs?