Standing In Against the Curveball

My baseball career ended before High School. I didn’t like school and I didn’t want to stick around any longer than I needed to once the bell rang at the end of the day. I regret not playing. I think I could have. Naturally, I decided to give it another go as a grown man who is too old to play baseball in a Men’s 30+ league and it’s been, challenging. Playing as an adult who makes a lot of grunting noise running for a very routine fly-ball, has given me yet another perspective on this wonderful game of baseball.

So when, in my most recent game, I flinched and bailed out of the box in my first at-bat only to see a curveball spin right into the heart of the zone, I was given the perspective of how hard it is to hit a curveball. I don’t know how good this curveball was in the grand scheme of things, but I do know that it looked like it was coming right for my head. The pitcher was good. He noticed my flailing and flinching and threw it over and over again and I continued to flail and flinch and it continued to get called strikes. Why can’t I hit it? I suppose it’s reactionary but in reality, I don’t want to get hit with a fastball and for a split second, a good curveball looks like a fastball coming for your head.

I am no good at playing baseball. But Josh Jung is and he doesn’t seem to have any trouble hitting the curve. Jung is a right-handed batter and he has eight hits against curveballs coming from right-handers this season, including two home runs and two doubles. Here’s an example of one:

At it’s furthest distance from the release point on the pitcher’s arm-side, this pitch looks scary:

But certainly hitters like Jung can see spin, or release, or have read a scouting that gives them a good sense of when the curveball is coming. Ready for a leaderboard? Here are the top 10 best right-handed curveball hitters (from right-handed pitchers) by batting average:

Notice the take percentage in the table above? It seems important. Let’s check in on the king of the curveball take and the curveball mash, Paul Goldschmidt, as he takes on a great curveball thrower, Corey Kluber:

Let’s freeze frame for a minute and look at Goldschmidt after seeing that really good first-pitch curveball slide into the zone:

You can almost hear him thinking, “First pitch curveball? Is it coming again?” Watch as Goldschmidt takes another and this time you can see him really stare it down:

Now he’s 0-2, he’s seen two curveballs and most people would probably assume Kluber is about to expand the zone. In the back of any normal, non-elite, hitters mind must be, “Fastball?” Yes, Kluber is an old curveball throwing vet at this point, but 92 is still scary fast and after seeing two baseballs start out coming towards you, the slight fear of a fastball up and in must be present. Yet, Goldschmidt is not a normal, non-elite hitter. He is a boss:

So, do more takes curveballs lead to better results on the pitcher overall? No, not really:

If you don’t swing, you won’t hit. I’ve limited this data set a lot by isolating to right versus right matchups, and even though there is an ever-so-slight negative relationship, it’s basically non-existent. Some batters like to get a look at the curveball before letting it rip and some like to just go for it. Take Austin Riley for example. In this sequence against Zach Wheeler, he sees a first pitch fastball, a second pitch fastball, and drills a third pitch curveball:

I find Riley’s ability to stand in, plant his feet and not bail out of there like a kid dodging a water ballon at summer camp, very impressive. If there’s one thing I know, it’s that you shouldn’t compare yourself to big leaguers. Yet, one of the fun aspects of playing baseball or playing fantasy baseball, is that you get to pretend for a moment each day that you are in the big leagues. Enjoy it and keep your feet planted in the box.