Spring Training Silliness

by
March 12, 2009

Spring training statistics just aren’t that helpful. Between the small sample sizes and the varying levels of competition (some pitchers get Albert Pujols; others get Brad Eldred), it’s extremely difficult to decipher what is meaningful and what is just plain noise. The leader boards this time of the year may make one feel as though they have gone down the rabbit hole into Wonderland. As such, it’s best not to get caught up in particularly hot or cold performances. Here are just a few examples of why you should view spring training numbers with a highly skeptical eye:

Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB

Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354

Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87

Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP
Career major league K/9: 3.58

There will be plenty of players labeled poised for a breakout season based on 100 at-bats or 30 strong innings in March, but it’s prudent not to place any great emphasis on, say, Gardner’s ability to take Brad Mills deep or Cook’s penchant for striking out young prospects and Quad-A hitters. Don’t ignore spring training entirely. But, if you’re making important decisions based on a guy’s numbers in the Grapefruit League, you’re more than likely going to be disappointed.

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A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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Mike G
16 years ago

Rototimes is guilty of a lot of this kind of pontificating. It’s fine to point out that Cliff Lee has had a couple of bad outings this spring…but one should also point out that he had a 5.68 ERA last spring before his breakout season. Without historical context of the impact of Spring Training numbers from prior years, it’s useless to know how good or bad Spring Training numbers are in analyzing fantasy impact going forward. My guess is pretty useless.

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