Sit or Start?: Three Case Studies to Sharpen Your Managerial Skills

You had a decision to make recently, didn’t you? You had two starting outfielders in good matchups and you just didn’t know who to choose to start the game. It’s ok. It’s ok. It’s part of the fun. Those micro analyses that bring together all of your understandings of the game of baseball are a lot of fun. At this point in the season, maybe you’re on auto-pilot and you just choose the player who has the highest roster rate in your format because, well heck, everyone else is starting him.

Maybe you’re on the opposite end of the spectrum and you pay too much attention, focusing on minute details such as park factors, hitter/pitcher historical matchups, xwOBA, and more. Whichever style you have held recently, it’s likely that you make good and bad decisions. It’s part of the game. For all the predicting and analyzing we do, baseball is, fairly unpredictable. Let’s go through a few case studies so we can all get some practice. I’ll take two players who appeared at the same position (or position eligibility) and you decide which you would start. Then, we’ll go back and see what actually happened. Let’s get started.

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Case Study #1 – On Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023 both Teoscar Hernández and Marcell Ozuna were in the starting lineup. In this case, each player was lined up to hit in the sixth spot in the order. Take a look at some of the finer details and chose which player you would have taken as either a DH or an OF as they are both usually eligible at those positions. Let’s imagine for the sake of simplicity, you were looking to fill your last OF roster spot on this day.

Teoscar Hernández (R) playing RF and batting 6th vs. starting pitcher Kutter Crawford (R)

Up until August 2nd, Hernández had been hitting .238/.288/.406 on the season with 16 home runs and .220/.278/.360 against right-handed pitching with 10 home runs. He had five stolen bases in seven attempts in that time. In his five games prior to this case study date, he recorded the following roto-category stats:

AVG: .227, HR: 0, R: 1, RBI: 2, SB: 0

Hernández was playing at home in Seattle, a park that has a basic (5-year) park factor score of 95 and a score of 102 for home runs by right-handed batters. This season, Hernández had seen Crawford in two games total for five plate appearances. Here’s how Crawford approached Hernández prior to this August 2nd matchup:

 

Marcell Ozuna (R), hitting in the DH spot and batting 6th vs. starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (R)

Up until August 2nd, Ozuna had been hitting .235/.309/.473 on the season with 22 home runs and .228/.309/.440 against right-handed pitching with 15 home runs. He had zero stolen bases in zero attempts at that time. In the five games prior to this case study date, Ozuna had accumulated the following roto-category stats:

AVG: .412, HR: 4, R: 7, RBI: 6, SB: 0

Ozuna was playing at home in Atlanta, a park that has a basic (5-year) park factor score of 102 and a score of 99 for home runs by right-handed batters. Historically, Ozuna had seen Giolito in one game total for three plate appearances and he had never gotten a hit off of him. Here’s how Giolito approached Ozuna prior to this August 2nd matchup:

Decision Time (Tick-Tock-Tick-Tock!) – Read all three case studies first! The answers are at the bottom of the page.

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Case Study #2 – On Friday, August 4th, 2023 both Isaac Paredes and Matt McLain were in the starting lineup. For this case study, let’s assume you are trying to decide between these two players for a middle infield (MI) slot in your lineup.

Isaac Paredes (R) playing 3B (though he is mostly eligible all over the infield) and batting fifth vs. starting pitcher Reese Olson (R)

Prior to his August 4th start, Reese Olson carried a 4.71 ERA and had given up eight home runs in 49.2 IP, both as a starter and a reliever. The 24-year-old made his major league debut in early June. Paredes came into the game with a .256/.363/.510 slash line and 21 home runs. 18 of those home runs came off of right-handed pitchers and against righties, Paredes was hitting .260/.368/.537. In the five games he played prior to this date, Paredes had recorded the following roto-category stats:

AVG: .313, HR: 3, R: 4, RBI: 4, SB: 0

Paredes had never Olson before, but Olson tends to throw a diverse range of pitches:

This season, Paredes has done damage to the slider recording an 8.7 pVal against the pitch. Finally, this game was played in Detroit and the stadium has a basic (5-year) park-factor score of 99 and a score of 96 on home runs by right-handed batters.

Matt McLain (R), starting at 2B and batting third vs. starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (L)

This game was played in Cincinnati where the park provides a big boost to right-handed home run hitters (115 HR as R park factors) and a 106 park factor (5-year basic) overall. Coming into the game, McLain was boasting a .304/.373/.519 slash line and an even more impressive .353/.405/.632 line against lefties. Four of his 11 home runs up until that point had come off of lefties. In the five games he played prior to this date, McLain had recorded the following roto-category stats:

AVG: .300, HR: 1, R: 3, RBI: 3, SB: 1

McLain had faced Corbin four times on the fourth of July this season and he grounded out twice, once on a bunt attempt, walked once, and hit a double. Here’s how Corbin approached McLain in those matchups:

Read all three case studies first! The answers are at the bottom of the page.

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Case Study #3 – On Thursday, July 27th, 2023 both Steven Kwan and Christopher Morel were in the starting lineup. For this case study, let’s assume you are trying to decide between these two players for an outfield slot in your lineup.

Steven Kwan (L) playing LF and leading off vs. starting pitcher Dylan Cease (R)

Prior to July 27th, Kwan had a slash line of .271/.344/.372 and one of .263/.336/.363 against right-handed pitchers. He had stolen 15 bases and hit four home runs. In the five games Kwan played prior to July 27th, he accumulated the following stats:

AVG: .286, HR: 1, R: 1, RBI: 4, SB: 0

Kwan had faced Cease six times prior to this case study date in 2023 and put the ball in play each time, however, each time he was put out. Here’s how Cease approached him:

This game was played in the southside of Chicago where there has been a 5-year basic park factor of 101 and a “HR as L” park factor of 112.

Christopher Morel (R), starting at the DH spot (though he is eligible for OF in most formats) and batting seventh vs. starting pitcher Miles Mikolas (R)

This game was played in St. Louis where the park provides plays at a 96 factor (5-year basic) overall and a 94 “HR as R”. Coming into the game, Morel was boasting a .272/.333/.539 slash line and an improved .297/.359/.582 line against right-handed pitchers. In the five games prior to this date, Morel accumulated the following:

AVG: .263, HR: 1, R: 3, RBI: 5, SB: 2

Morel had faced Mikolas three times prior to this July 27th game and he walked, struck out swinging, and hit a single. Here’s how those at-bats went:

Read all three case studies first! The answers are at the bottom of the page.

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“How’d You Do!?”

Answers:

I’m sure many of us would have gone with the hot hand. Ozuna came into the game on this date on fire and appeared to be a much better matchup. That’s baseball Suzyn.

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The hot hand five-game sample going into the game may have made you think Paredes was the pick, but McLain’s overall numbers made him the better choice and he did not disappoint. Though both players had good games, the dinger takes the win.

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Once again, Kwan had the hotter hand in recent games but Morel’s numbers against righties were much better. Morel takes the win but…something weird happened in this game where Mikolas was ejected after only facing three batters. Morel actually faced Dakota Hudson in his first at-bat. Baseball is unpredictable.