Ryon Healy: The Power Source We Expected

Coming into the 2017 campaign, Ryon Healy was a popular topic of conversation on an Oakland Athletics squad that ultimately doesn’t have a lot to be said for it. A sleeper candidate before the year began, some of the shine has since fallen off of Healy thanks to a slow start. Ranking 19th out of 24 qualifying third basemen in WAR probably doesn’t help his case, either.

Having shaken off that rough start, however, and taking his questionable defense out of the equation, Healy is not only a player that stacks up well against his counterparts at the hot corner, but is meeting the expectations previously set forth for him. An offense-first, or perhaps an offense-only, type, Healy will continue to see time at third base, especially with the trade of Trevor Plouffe, while also filling in at first behind Yonder Alonso. And while he likely hasn’t done enough to establish himself as a fantasy starter outside of deeper leagues, he’s a versatile (in a fantasy sense) with a lot going for him at the plate. And by “a lot”, I mean a lot of power.

Healy made some waves across his 283 Major League plate appearances in 2016, finishing with a slash that featured a .305 average and a .337 on-base percentage, along with an .846 OPS. Despite high strikeout and low walk numbers, the power was immediately prevalent, as he posted an ISO of .219. It all came together with a park-adjusted offense figure that painted him well above league average, as his wRC+ came in at 134. That sample served as a springboard toward those high expectations coming into this season.

More than anything, what Healy has going for him is his power. He’s currently the proud owner of a .257 ISO that ranks sixth among third basemen, while sporting an OPS of .846, good for 10th. His wRC+ of 125 ranks sixth as well, while his 40.4% hard hit rate is in the top five at the position.

As attractive as the power can be, though, it’s likely his lack of power that led to so many abandoning attention, and in many cases fantasy ownership, of him early on in the season. He hit only .245 in April, reaching base at a clip of only .287 and demonstrating power that was far below expectations. His ISO for the month was only .170, putting him in the bottom half of qualifying third basemen for the month. His Off rating, at -3.2, put him 19th out of 26 qualifiers for the month.

But, as indicated immediately below, Healy has demonstrated improvement since that slow start, especially where it counts: in the power game.

To go along with that, it’s probably not a coincidence that Healy’s contact trends have grown increasingly favorable as the season has worn on. After an April that featured a hard hit rate of 35.3%, Healy has followed with months of 39.5% and 49.0% in the Hard% department. When you combine that with a flyball rate that’s sitting at 43.8%, it tends to line up favorably for our hero in this particular saga. Hello, HR/FB rate of 20.2%.

In the last 30 days, only Anthony Rendon has a higher ISO than Healy’s .370 mark as far as qualifying third sackers are concerned. His 1.019 OPS, trails only Rendon and Jose Ramirez over that span. His wRC+, at 170, also ranks third among that group. He’s hit the ball hard at a 44.2% rate, putting him in fourth in the past 30 days at the third base position. Despite the slow start, he’s spent the last month reestablishing himself as the power threat which so many viewed him prior to the season.

Now there are obvious drawbacks to his game, and nobody was overlooking those while setting forth some decent expectations before 2017 got underway. His contact rank comes in near the bottom of qualifying players at the position, at just 75.3%. The positive there is that his contact rate on pitches inside of the strike zone comes in significantly more favorable, at 87.2%. Despite seeing 3.84 pitches per plate appearance, he does have a tendency to hack outside of the zone, with an O-Swing% of 36.2% that serves as the third-highest at the position.

As such, the walk numbers are lower than you’d like, and the strikeout numbers are higher than you’d like. Across 74 plate appearances in June, Healy hasn’t walked. At all. That obviously feeds into a 3.2% BB rate that easily serves as the lowest at the position, while his 26.9% K rate is the third highest. At the same time, it’s not as if Healy is the type of power hitter who’s instantly susceptible to pitches in certain parts of the strike zone, a la Javier Baez. Although he might let his aggressiveness get the better of him, his Contact% across various parts of the zone indicates that he does cover it relatively well:

Ultimately, it’s easy to overlook the flaws when you’re mashing baseballs over the fence. It’s in the fantasy game, in particular, that some of these shortcomings are much more forgivable. Ryon Healy isn’t the glaringly obvious “selling out for power” type, but it’s kind of become the expectation, given his high-K, low-BB, low contact tendencies. But there’s consistency in his power. When he makes contact, it’s going to go a long way. As he approaches 600 plate appearances at the Major League level, he’s at least assured us of that much.

And regardless of what third baseman stands in his way, be it the now-jettisoned Trevor Plouffe or Matt Chapman, you can bet the A’s are continue to find at-bats for their designated hitter disguised as a corner infielder.