Rougned Odor’s Slow Start Should Not Bother You

Rougned Odor, slight of frame and young in age, impressed in his debut last season despite playing just 62 games above double-A. Forced into a role due to injuries to Jurickson Profar, a 90 wRC+ is not world beating but he did hit nine homers and steal four bags which is certainly appealing for fantasy purposes given he played in just 114 games.

So far this year Odor has seen a sever lack of BABIP luck along with a number of pitches hitting him. His OBP is inflated a tad due to five hit by pitches in 13 games. For comparison, he was hit just five times all of last season. His walk rate is up, however, along with his strikeout rate. I do not see this as a big negative. If he is going to be a power hitting second baseman, adding some walks is a positive.

The rest of Odor’s numbers look very similar to what he was producing last year. He has had a better line drive rate by 3%, has hit 6% fewer ground balls, and has a close to identical fly ball rate. The increase in line drive rate highlights the BABIP misfortune he has endured in the first two weeks of the year, as his current BABIP is .161 and his projected ZiPS BABIP is .303, which is slightly higher than the .294 he produced last year. He has also hit one home run in 12 fly balls which is right at his 8% home run per fly ball rate.

The reason I am highlighting these numbers is the likelihood that Odor bounces back and rather quickly. We all know BABIP plays and Odor is a good one. But if we are assuming his BABIP reverts back to normal he would only look like he did last year, which was valuable but not tremendously so.

Given we still only have two weeks of data, Odor’s ZiPS projection is what has me confident in him picking it up rather quickly this year. ZiPS has him at a 101 wRC+ with 15 home runs and 14 steals. Now that is valuable, considering he would be putting up a .263 average with a .308 OBP going forward.

Odor’s slot in the batting order is concerning. The Rangers have moved him to leadoff to try and get Leonys Martin going, but they have claimed Martin is their leadoff man going forward. However, it’s good to see that Odor is the next in line to leadoff.

The main thing to focus on is that the model with regards to drafting and Odor has not changed since the start of the year. Certain owners will be willing to move a guy like him given his slow start. He will never be a demon on the bases and he needs to steal at a better rate if he will get to mid-teens steals, but with his power and the team’s seemingly willingness to let him run, he is a quality trade target for those seeking some middle infield help. In long term leagues, he is even more attractive given his age. I traded for Odor in a dynasty league this winter and I recommend those in long term leagues check in on his value and acquire him if the price is reasonable.