RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 16-23
Here are the first five rounds, here are another five rounds, here are the last five rounds, and now here are the final rounds of the draft. It took us six weeks, across the holidays, to do this draft. Slow drafts suck. Your RotoGraphs writers are dedicated men.
But the final rounds are my favorite. You’ll never find me groaning about them — the cost is so low here that you can finally take shots on random guys you like, and those guys are always the most fun.
I mean, how can you dislike rounds that include Jon Niese, Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Seager, Josh Rutledge, Jason Kubel, Lance Berkman, Mike Fiers, Alejandro De Aza, Billy Hamilton, Shelby Miller and Wil Myers? They’re all so interesting!
| 181 | 16.1 Jackie Peanuts | Josh Beckett |
|---|---|---|
| 182 | 16.2 Wade | Jon Niese |
| 183 | 16.3 Sarris | Wil Myers |
| 184 | 16.4 Sanders | Ryan Dempster |
| 185 | 16.5 Bender | Dayan Viciedo |
| 186 | 16.6 J Zim | Hiroki Kuroda |
| 187 | 16.7 Zarzycki | Pedro Alvarez |
| 188 | 16.8 Harrison | Wade Miley |
| 189 | 16.9 Wiers | Jedd Gyorko |
| 190 | 16.10 Cwik | Trevor Cahill |
| 191 | 16.11 Swydan | Grant Balfour |
| 192 | 16.12 Petriello | Todd Frazier |
| 193 | 17.1 Petriello | Alfonso Soriano |
| 194 | 17.2 Swydan | Will Middlebrooks |
| 195 | 17.3 Cwik | Ryan Vogelsong |
| 196 | 17.4 Wiers | Hisashi Iwakuma |
| 197 | 17.5 Harrison | Alejandro de Aza |
| 198 | 17.6 Zarzycki | Anthony Rizzo |
| 199 | 17.7 Jeff Zim | Trevor Plouffe |
| 200 | 17.8 Bender | Kyle Seager |
| 201 | 17.9 Sanders | Tommy Hanson |
| 202 | 17.10 Sarris | Starling Marte |
| 203 | 17.11 Wade | Scott Baker |
| 204 | 17.12 Jackie Peanuts | Tom Wilhelmsen |
| 205 | 18.1 Jackie Peanuts | Cameron Maybin |
| 206 | 18.2 Wade | Glen Perkins |
| 207 | 18.3 Sarris | Trevor Bauer |
| 208 | 18.4 Sanders | Jayson Werth |
| 209 | 18.5 Bender | Josh Rutledge |
| 210 | 18.6 J Zim | Torii Hunter |
| 211 | 18.7 Zarzycki | Jason Grilli |
| 212 | 18.8 Harrison | Emilio Bonifacio |
| 213 | 18.9 Wiers | Brandon League |
| 214 | 18.10 Cwik | Sergio Santos |
| 215 | 18.11 Swydan | Marco Estrada |
| 216 | 18.12 Petriello | Kenley Jansen |
| 217 | 19.1 Petriello | Kyle Lohse |
| 218 | 19.2 Swydan | Justin Ruggiano |
| 219 | 19.3 Cwik | Derek Holland |
| 220 | 19.4 Wiers | Alex Avila |
| 221 | 19.5 Harrison | Brandon Beachy |
| 222 | 19.6 Zarzycki | Casey Janssen |
| 223 | 19.7 Jeff Zim | Joe Blanton |
| 224 | 19.8 Bender | Steve Cishek |
| 225 | 19.9 Sanders | Jonathan Broxton |
| 226 | 19.10 Sarris | Casey Kelly |
| 227 | 19.11 Wade | Chris Carpenter |
| 228 | 19.12 Jackie Peanuts | Alexi Ogando |
| 229 | 20.1 Jackie Peanuts | Al Albuquerque |
| 230 | 20.2 Wade | Mark Reynolds |
| 231 | 20.3 Sarris | Jean Segura |
| 232 | 20.4 Sanders | Chris Archer |
| 233 | 20.5 Bender | Carlos Pena |
| 234 | 20.6 J Zim | Vinnie Pestano |
| 235 | 20.7 Zarzycki | Jaime Garcia |
| 236 | 20.8 Harrison | Brandon McCarthy |
| 237 | 20.9 Wiers | Ernesto Frieri |
| 238 | 20.10 Cwik | John Axford |
| 239 | 20.11 Swydan | John Jaso |
| 240 | 20.12 Petriello | Jason Kubel |
| 241 | 21.1 Petriello | Adam LaRoche |
| 242 | 21.2 Swydan | Daniel Murphy |
| 243 | 21.3 Cwik | Denard Span |
| 244 | 21.4 Wiers | David Robertson |
| 245 | 21.5 Harrison | Rafael Soriano |
| 246 | 21.6 Zarzycki | Jed Lowrie |
| 247 | 21.7 Jeff Zim | Kelvim Herrera |
| 248 | 21.8 Bender | Jason Vargas |
| 249 | 21.9 Sanders | Lance Berkman |
| 250 | 21.10 Sarris | Cory Luebke |
| 251 | 21.11 Wade | J.J. Hardy |
| 252 | 21.12 Jackie Peanuts | Alexei Ramirez |
| 253 | 22.1 Jackie Peanuts | Kevin Youkilis |
| 254 | 22.2 Wade | Dee Gordon |
| 255 | 22.3 Sarris | Kyuji Fujikawa |
| 256 | 22.4 Sanders | Michael Young |
| 257 | 22.5 Bender | Andy Pettitte |
| 258 | 22.6 J Zim | Jason Hammel |
| 259 | 22.7 Zarzycki | Clay Buchholz |
| 260 | 22.8 Harrison | Bruce Rondon |
| 261 | 22.9 Wiers | Sean Marshall |
| 262 | 22.10 Cwik | Chris Tillman |
| 263 | 22.11 Swydan | Andrew Cashner |
| 264 | 22.12 Petriello | Chad Billingsley |
| 265 | 23.1 Petriello | Bud Norris |
| 266 | 23.2 Swydan | Mike Zunino |
| 267 | 23.3 Cwik | Justin Morneau |
| 268 | 23.4 Wiers | Mike Fiers |
| 269 | 23.5 Harrison | Billy Hamilton |
| 270 | 23.6 Zarzycki | Carlos Marmol |
| 271 | 23.7 Jeff Zim | Danny Duffy |
| 272 | 23.8 Bender | Carlos Quentin |
| 273 | 23.9 Sanders | Jordan Pacecho |
| 274 | 23.10 Sarris | Shelby Miller |
| 275 | 23.11 Wade | Aaron Hicks |
| 276 | 23.12 Jackie Peanuts | David Hernandez |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Two things stuck out to me.
1.) How late Rizzo went. MDC has him solidly in the 50-100 range, but in this draft he’s going after the likes of Todd Frazier?
2.) The order of RP’s taken. Given a lot of bullpen situations are up in the air right now, but the progression just seems really odd.
i wonder if the slow draft format limits the likelihood of a run at a position. I would expect a live draft with this exact same crowd, now that a lot of teams’ rosters are closer to being secure, would provide completely different results in the last 2/3 of the draft at least.
yeah… if somebody wants to explain how and why wilhelmsen and sergio santos are going within a round of each other, i mean, i’ll listen, but
or all of santos, alburquerque, pestano and frieri – none of which are closers or were expected to be closers during the holidays (madson signed in november) – going ahead of axford… i get that axford had a dicey season, but that’s still… and santos didn’t? it’s really weird
To the dismay of everyone else in your leagues, I am going to suggest that you take a good look at Todd Frazier’s numbers and position eligibility. I know your point is really about Rizzo going late, but Frazier also may have gone late.
As for MDC’s rankings right now, they are soooo reflective of their initial rankings at this point because of the high percentage of computer drafted teams that default to the preset rankings that they cannot be trusted. We should all really wait a month or so, or hope that someone does an analysis of their preset rankings, before considering the numbers reliable. They also still have Giancarlo as Mike. A minor issue, but if something that small is left unattended to, what else is sloppy behind the scenes at MDC?
Well just by a quick glance at the Fans projections so far:
Frazier: 72 R, 78 RBI, 22 HR, 6 SB, .268
Rizzo: 87 R, 104 RBI, 28 HR, 5 SB, .284
One of those guys is borderline waiver wire material, the other is 3rd round type numbers. Given, Rizzo’s projection may be a bit optimistic, and Frazier has flexibility–but there’s a huge gap in performance here.
Fans, as their namesake suggests, are derived from fans and come from a people selecting a statistic range from a handful of stat categories which leads to a projection after 8 people (I think) have submitted their projections. Likely not the best projection system to use.
Further, comparing Rizzo and Frazier is only useful if we’re talking about them both being 1B. They aren’t, Frazier is presently the Reds starting 3B. At 1B, sure, we can give Rizzo the nod.
Finally, does Rizzo really have that much more power than Frazier?
2012 ISOs
Frazier: .225
Rizzo: .178
Unless you somehow believe that Rizzo provides 26 more RBI and 15 more runs than Frazier, then Frazier was taken far too late. He could hit 30+ (prorate his 2012 numbers to 650 PA) and you’re talking about a top tier fantasy 3B.
I understand the limitations of Fans projections. Bill James’ projections are the only others posted on FanGraphs thus far, which are pretty much in agreement with Fans. When other projections come out, I imagine they’re going to be in the same ranges.
1B is not nearly as deep as it has been traditionally. Rizzo will likely be a top 12 1B by season’s end. Frazier, I’m not so certain will be a top 12 3B. And if your league has a utility slot, as most do, Rizzo is a much better pick to fill that than Frazier.
If Frazier hits 30+ HR’s, then sure he’s a top tier fantasy 3B. However the likelyhood of him hitting 30 HR’s is not very high.