RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Outfield

by
March 6, 2013

The outfield is always a bear. So many dang players. We’ve got 114 ranked, and another 16 mentioned, which should get you all the way through your five-outfield twenty-team league and then one or two.

But a word first about our rankers and our rankings. One of the reasons we’re using four rankers is, as I said, to do a mini crowd-source. (I do like the idea of opening it up to our fans, so we’ll see about that as a long-term plan, by the way.) Something was made of a certain ranking of Chase Headley in the third basemen — but that ranking dragged the Padres’ hot corner man up one spot in the consensus. Seems like folly to make such a big deal about one spot, and, in a way, it represents the fact that some drafters out there will believe in Chase Headley too. Heck, our own xHR/FB analysis believes in Chase Headley.

But that’s enough about third basemen. Here, no doubt some of you will be upset about a certain ranking of Giancarlo Stanton. Well guess what. That ranking might have cost the powerful Stanton two spots in the rankings at most. And! Stanton doesn’t steal bases, has a high strikeout rate that could lead to a bad batting average, and is coming off a year in which he saw knee surgery. You could tell the story of Justin Upton, who has power, speed, and the ability to hit .300 — is it crazy to put him ahead of a possible one-category guy on a bad team?

Answer: no, it is not crazy. All four of these men have proven philosophies about ranking players. Most have their own brand of projections even. No problem stating your case for a different belief, but maybe a little less foot on the gas pedal sometimes, eh? There’s always the rankings spreadsheet (to your right) where you can pick your favorite ranker and remove the ones you don’t like. And then we’ll have tiered rankings from your dedicated positional correspondent. You’re covered.

So I’d say enjoy these rankings below. And where you *don’t* enjoy a ranking, note it. Because someone in your league will feel the way you do, and someone will feel the way one of our rankers does. The players with wildly divergent rankings offer the most opportunity. They’re gems!

(The projections listed are the FanGraphs-Steamer projections and are not the basis for each analyst’s rankings.)

RotoG ES JZ MP ZS Name PA AVG R HR RBI SB
1 2 2 1 1 Ryan Braun 670 0.301 99 33 104 19
2 1 1 2 2 Mike Trout 708 0.285 113 26 82 42
3 4 3 3 4 Matt Kemp 633 0.284 86 29 93 13
4 3 4 5 3 Andrew McCutchen 675 0.291 91 25 89 14
5 6 6 4 5 Carlos Gonzalez 548 0.304 81 25 86 13
6 7 7 7 7 Justin Upton 658 0.287 92 28 96 12
7 8 9 9 8 Adam Jones 668 0.28 84 27 96 9
8 5 5 6 18 Giancarlo Stanton 615 0.272 89 42 107 4
9 11 11 12 6 Jacoby Ellsbury 597 0.285 83 14 59 22
10 9 10 8 14 Jason Heyward 668 0.266 93 27 88 13
11 10 8 13 17 Bryce Harper 670 0.257 87 24 82 16
12 14 16 15 10 Matt Holliday 628 0.291 84 23 88 3
13 12 23 10 12 Yoenis Cespedes 563 0.282 73 22 81 9
14 17 20 17 11 Adrian Gonzalez 639 0.294 85 27 96 1
15 13 25 14 15 Jose Bautista 560 0.266 85 33 90 5
16 18 14 23 13 Shin-Soo Choo 678 0.27 94 19 64 15
17 20 15 16 20 B.J. Upton 636 0.246 80 22 75 25
18 16 22 18 16 Jay Bruce 613 0.258 81 32 93 5
19 15 38 20 9 Josh Hamilton 509 0.278 69 24 79 4
20 21 19 21 26 Desmond Jennings 666 0.241 86 14 58 30
21 23 30 11 24 Alex Rios 595 0.271 71 18 73 13
22 24 18 31 19 Austin Jackson 709 0.274 97 13 65 13
23 22 13 22 37 Michael Bourn 711 0.262 87 6 48 35
24 25 24 33 23 Alex Gordon 690 0.276 92 18 76 8
25 19 31 25 30 Allen Craig 546 0.29 73 23 79 3
26 26 12 24 44 Norichika Aoki 700 0.284 96 14 63 23
27 31 21 30 29 Angel Pagan 680 0.281 92 9 57 24
28 28 26 41 22 Melky Cabrera 610 0.285 79 14 68 10
29 34 36 28 21 Ben Zobrist 676 0.262 89 19 77 11
30 39 17 27 36 Ben Revere 636 0.27 71 3 44 32
31 33 33 19 35 Shane Victorino 609 0.273 81 11 63 23
32 29 28 34 32 Nick Markakis 670 0.29 87 17 75 4
33 30 35 29 33 Ichiro Suzuki 586 0.29 67 7 54 22
34 27 32 44 25 Martin Prado 642 0.294 85 13 66 8
35 32 29 38 51 Alejandro De Aza 614 0.268 79 10 53 19
36 36 48 48 27 Carlos Beltran 523 0.271 69 19 69 6
37 46 45 43 28 Hunter Pence 609 0.271 72 19 81 4
38 35 27 49 57 Starling Marte 589 0.262 73 13 54 26
39 37 50 36 47 Nelson Cruz 496 0.268 64 22 73 5
40 47 61 32 34 Carlos Gomez 440 0.247 48 13 49 23
41 54 51 42 31 Mark Trumbo 502 0.255 63 24 74 3
42 38 44 40 63 Brett Gardner 518 0.261 64 6 45 28
43 43 54 47 42 Jayson Werth 550 0.26 70 17 61 9
44 45 42 26 73 Carl Crawford 514 0.265 65 12 50 17
45 52 47 39 50 Cameron Maybin 585 0.252 65 11 52 21
46 40 39 35 80 Coco Crisp 531 0.262 70 10 48 31
47 44 63 50 38 Andre Ethier 508 0.272 59 16 64 1
48 42 40 55 59 Juan Pierre 559 0.273 62 3 36 25
49 53 49 58 39 Josh Reddick 606 0.238 72 25 82 6
50 56 53 51 45 Chris Davis 487 0.261 61 25 70 2
51 48 59 60 40 Torii Hunter 530 0.27 66 16 63 4
52 41 37 45 86 Adam Eaton 543 0.282 74 8 46 29
53 49 70 56 41 Josh Willingham 504 0.251 65 23 72 2
54 55 52 57 54 David Murphy 486 0.283 59 14 59 7
55 51 60 46 64 Michael Cuddyer 459 0.276 57 17 64 6
56 50 46 67 60 Michael Brantley 620 0.269 73 8 54 11
57 62 57 37 69 Justin Ruggiano 486 0.251 52 14 55 14
58 57 55 54 62 Nick Swisher 615 0.259 79 23 82 2
59 66 64 52 49 Lorenzo Cain 480 0.262 56 10 48 13
60 59 41 62 71 Jon Jay 565 0.283 67 9 53 11
61 67 65 59 46 Todd Frazier 502 0.242 55 19 63 7
62 60 43 75 65 Dexter Fowler 616 0.272 91 11 54 10
63 61 56 64 70 Denard Span 591 0.268 69 5 43 13
64 58 34 53 108 Curtis Granderson 630 0.239 82 30 86 9
65 65 62 72 58 Will Venable 519 0.245 60 13 51 19
66 64 68 63 66 Michael Morse 464 0.271 54 19 62 1
67 68 78 61 55 Alfonso Soriano 498 0.244 57 21 68 3
68 70 67 71 56 Dayan Viciedo 488 0.261 57 21 64 1
69 69 66 68 61 Garrett Jones 515 0.262 61 21 71 3
70 77 79 70 43 Michael Saunders 499 0.232 52 14 52 13
71 74 74 79 52 Matt Joyce 483 0.248 59 17 61 4
72 63 58 74 85 Corey Hart 481 0.259 59 19 66 3
73 72 71 66 76 Jason Kubel 488 0.255 58 20 66 1
74 76 76 83 53 Cody Ross 488 0.258 56 16 59 3
75 78 80 88 48 Adam Dunn 612 0.213 78 31 81 1
76 80 81 78 72 Ryan Ludwick 469 0.258 56 20 66 1
77 79 95 73 74 Justin Maxwell 448 0.223 51 17 53 10
78 73 73 94 81 David DeJesus 575 0.266 72 11 49 5
79 81 82 81 78 Carlos Quentin 454 0.245 55 19 62 1
80 75 75 86 88 Logan Morrison 510 0.251 58 16 62 2
81 88 84 85 68 Darin Mastroianni 444 0.235 51 4 32 31
82 86 93 76 79 Andy Dirks 343 0.265 39 9 40 5
83 105 100 65 67 Drew Stubbs 410 0.23 45 10 40 17
84 82 90 77 89 Emilio Bonifacio 346 0.258 38 2 29 20
85 85 88 92 75 Peter Bourjos 418 0.25 49 9 45 11
86 71 69 95 106 Gerardo Parra 469 0.279 54 8 44 10
87 83 83 100 83 Domonic Brown 396 0.256 42 11 46 6
88 93 94 89 77 Lucas Duda 454 0.245 49 15 53 1
89 84 102 69 102 Leonys Martin 275 0.268 33 6 31 10
90 92 72 82 112 Wil Myers 349 0.254 40 12 42 4
91 104 99 80 84 Brandon Moss 392 0.241 47 17 52 3
92 91 87 102 90 Chris Young 474 0.233 58 15 51 10
93 96 89 91 95 Ryan Doumit 452 0.262 49 13 53 1
94 97 91 84 104 Colby Rasmus 464 0.245 55 17 58 3
95 100 85 108 92 Chris Denorfia 404 0.264 45 8 39 8
96 87 110 96 93 Chris Parmelee 358 0.246 38 10 40 1
97 90 86 90 120 Delmon Young 375 0.277 40 12 48 1
98 94 103 93 97 Jeff Francoeur 388 0.255 41 10 44 4
99 108 104 99 82 Trevor Plouffe 430 0.235 47 17 53 2
100 95 98 105 99 J.D. Martinez 446 0.255 48 11 50 1
101 99 92 87 120 Tyler Colvin 390 0.256 45 15 54 4
102 103 97 101 100 Seth Smith 438 0.248 52 14 50 3
103 102 96 97 107 Nate Schierholtz 398 0.261 46 10 43 4
104 98 77 108 120 Brandon Guyer 482 0.249 52 12 54 13
105 101 116 108 87 John Mayberry 310 0.248 32 11 38 3
106 106 105 98 103 Franklin Gutierrez 417 0.242 42 7 38 8
107 89 122 106 101 Nolan Reimold 254 0.248 31 10 30 4
108 113 114 107 94 Donovan Solano 411 0.248 34 3 34 5
109 112 115 108 96 Mike Baxter 331 0.242 32 6 32 5
110 107 101 108 120 Scott Hairston 380 0.255 44 16 51 5
111 113 107 108 109 Jose Tabata 313 0.269 34 4 26 7
112 110 123 108 98 Jonny Gomes 287 0.244 34 11 35 2
113 113 111 108 110 Steve Lombardozzi 298 0.252 27 4 27 6
114 111 117 103 111 Nate McLouth 333 0.234 41 9 32 8
115 109 120 104 113 Fernando Martinez 328 0.25 37 12 40 1
116 113 112 108 114 Gregor Blanco 365 0.233 33 4 31 15

Others ranked by one analyst: Andres Torres, Brett Jackson, Casper Wells, Chris Heisey, Craig Gentry, Daniel Nava, Eric Young Jr, Jason Bay, Jerry Hairston Jr, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Matt Carpenter, Rajai Davis, Raul Ibanez, Roger Bernadina, and Tony Campana.





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Cody
12 years ago

I do not think anyone has a problem with an individual having their own rankings, but I think everyone has a problem with an individual’s rankings being so far skewed against the consensus in such a small sample that it causes the aggregate to be a false representation of the majority. As you said, we can take the rankings into Excel and modify as we see fit, but why not display all four rankings while eliminating any outliers outside a given number of standard deviations for the aggregate rankings?

I am sure that we all enjoy Zach Sanders and his thoughts that may be outside the norm, but in this format, where he cannot explain further, it is simply frustrating even if the impact is minimal on the whole. For example, how is Adam Jones ranked eighth and Giancarlo ranked eighteen making them eighth and seventh in the aggregate respectively? I must know why he would rank them as such before I can even entertain the idea of it being a legitimate/respectable/logical opinion.

3
Cliff
12 years ago
Reply to  Cody

he prolly ranked Jones ahead of Stanton because Jones has been better than Stanton in previous years…including last year…here are there respective stat lines from 2012

Stanton: .290, 75 runs, 30 doubles, 37 HR, 86 RBI, and 6 SB

Jones: .287, 103 runs, 39 doubles, 32 HR, 82 RBI, and 16 SB

given how bad the Marlins will be and Stanton’s potential lack of focus and care when his team is heading for a 110-loss season, most likely all factors into these rankings.

1
ManwichManMember since 2018
12 years ago
Reply to  Cliff

But that’s still a cop out. Jones had 195 more pa’s to bolster his numbers. You can say health is a factor, but he has hamilton 9th and ellsbury 6th. The run production may be below average, but he should be the top hr guy, with a solid batting average with 600+ pas. Jones is safer, but Giancarlo is miles ahead of everyone else in terms of power

1
jfree
12 years ago
Reply to  Cody

Might I suggest you save your frustration for more significant things?

Differences in rankings – not consensus in them – are the only meaningful part of any position rankings.

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  jfree

This is a huge point. If you have a strong opinion about Stanton being worth whatever ranking you think he’s worth, now you know that someone in your league over or under-values him. That’s huge. And it doesn’t affect the consensus that much.

1
SKob
12 years ago
Reply to  jfree

Consensus is not the point and these guys are not local fantasy nerds. I’m not surprised when someone I beat every year thinks Choo will be more valuable than Stanton. I love reviewing different pojection systems and determining where the subtle dfferences are. When I see something like this, I throw it out as there is no credibility to the reasoning behind it. You enjoy though!

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  jfree

Zach has projections. He runs them through a calculator that we’ve shown on this site and has been vetted by the community. He has different projections for plate appearances for some key players that have high variability in plate appearance projections from system to system. Just because you don’t agree with a few of his rankings doesn’t mean he just threw crap on a wall to see if it sticks. That’s the point.

0