Roto Riteup: June 25, 2015

Today’s Roto Riteup is being written right after my confidence was shattered after attempting one of the archived New York Times’ crosswords. Once the timer got to 20 minutes, I paused it out of shame. How some have finished these puzzles in three minutes is beyond me.

On today’s agenda:
1. Quick thoughts on Marco Estrada
2. Brett Lawrie is raking
3. Streaming Pitching Options

Quick thoughts on Marco Estrada
In the wake of another near-no hitter, I figured it’s about time to discuss Estrada. As Eno Sarris noted earlier in the month, Estrada is generating plenty of whiffs, limiting the free passes and posting a low BABIP while allowing a fair share of home runs. Given Estrada’s extreme fly ball tendencies — his 31.6 percent since 2011 rates tied for 10th highest in baseball, minimum 300 innings pitched — he’s bound to give up some homers, particularly at home. With a double digit swinging strike rate and a powerful offense behind him, potentially powering him to some wins, I’m willing to live with the occasional gopheritis game from Estrada. While a .243 BABIP is low even for him, Estrada has shown a Matt Cain type ability to maintain a strong batted ball profile, largely thanks to his strong infield fly rate. Since the 2011 season he’s flashed the 9th highest infield fly rate among starters, again 300 IP minimum. Without considering his recent performance too heavily, Estrada has the talent to be streamed in most leagues. He’s owned in just 40 percent of CBS settings and less than 15 percent of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.

Brett Lawrie is raking
After his grand slam today during his 3-for-5 game, Lawrie is up to a .292/.327/.431 line on the season, good for a 113 wRC+. Since the start of the season, his batting average has jumped each month from .229 in April, .295 in May and now over .340 in June. Of course, Lawrie’s BABIP has trended up along with his AVG, and increased from .309 in the opening month to over .395 in May and June. Besides the small sample size and arbitrary cut offs of monthly splits, Lawrie presents other issues to fantasy owners. With an 11:73 walk to strikeout rate, it’s hard to imagine Lawrie maintaining his value as the the season progresses. His swinging strike rate has jumped to 12.8 percent and his strikeout rate is up to 26.4 percent plus Lawrie owns a mere 4 percent walk rate; all three would represent single season worsts for him. Lawrie is doing solid damage when facing a southpaw as the right-handed hitter is posting a .250/.314/.500 line against them with four his home runs coming off of lefties. For his career he’s actually hit same-handed pitching better, showing a rare reverse platoon split. If you currently own him, I’d look to package him elsewhere. At this point, without showing a better grasp of the strike zone, Lawrie is best suited to deep leagues or the occasional DFS budget start.

Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for today: Matthew Wisler at WAS (Doug Fister)
The Nats hit quite well against right-handed pitchers, but I’m putting faith in the Braves prospect. He’s available in more than 75 percent of CBS leagues as well as over 85 percent of ESPN and Yahoo! formats.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Jesse Hahn vs KC (Edinson Volquez)
I’m a fan of Hahn’s ground ball ways, though the Royals have hit righties pretty well thus far. Hahn is free to stream in over 40 percent of CBS settings, 60 percent of Yahoo! formats and 80 percent of ESPN leagues.