Roto Riteup: July 5, 2016

Hello, American friends. I hope the 4th found you well and your day was filled with safety, healthy foods, and moderation. And in case you missed our birthday up here, it’s not too late to say sorry.

Let’s go Blue Jays ????? pic.twitter.com/KFwyNLOTy3

— Trevor Bauer (@BauerOutage) July 4, 2016

On the agenda:
1. Offense changing in the last 30 days
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

Offense changing in the last 30 days
We looked recently at how offenses have performed against different handed pitchers and at home or on the road. That’s good information, and with generally little turnover so far, those descriptive stats do a good job guiding our streaming decisions. It’s risky to split moderate samples into smaller samples here around the halfway mark, but as the season changes, so do some offenses. Here’s a look at how lineups have done over the last 30 days relative to their full-season marks:

Team	Season ISO	Season wRC+	30day ISO	30day wRC+	ISO change	wRC+ change
Blue Jays	0.187	104	0.228	125	0.041	21
Braves	0.104	72	0.140	91	0.036	19
Padres	0.153	89	0.175	106	0.022	17
Phillies	0.146	78	0.175	95	0.029	17
White Sox	0.153	91	0.188	104	0.035	13
Nationals	0.176	98	0.184	110	0.008	12
Orioles	0.195	109	0.207	121	0.012	12
Yankees	0.145	86	0.153	98	0.008	12
Astros	0.172	98	0.173	109	0.001	11
Dodgers	0.150	91	0.173	101	0.023	10
Twins	0.158	89	0.189	99	0.031	10
Angels	0.145	101	0.167	109	0.022	8
Giants	0.142	104	0.142	112	0.000	8
Marlins	0.136	97	0.129	105	-0.007	8
Diamondbacks	0.171	98	0.178	104	0.007	6
Rockies	0.189	92	0.198	97	0.009	5
Tigers	0.173	105	0.174	110	0.001	5
Athletics	0.146	89	0.144	93	-0.002	4
Rangers	0.164	94	0.177	98	0.013	4
Royals	0.138	94	0.144	97	0.006	3
Indians	0.173	100	0.193	102	0.020	2
Cubs	0.179	108	0.199	109	0.020	1
Mets	0.174	97	0.167	97	-0.007	0
Brewers	0.146	88	0.129	86	-0.017	-2
Mariners	0.181	109	0.184	105	0.003	-4
Rays	0.184	97	0.169	92	-0.015	-5
Reds	0.160	80	0.129	75	-0.031	-5
Cardinals	0.184	109	0.168	102	-0.016	-7
Red Sox	0.184	118	0.158	110	-0.026	-8
Pirates	0.147	103	0.133	84	-0.014	-19

The Blue Jays always seemed a bit of a sleeping giant, with their stars under-performing early on. That they’ve surged like this with Jose Bautista on the DL for most of this month is even more encouraging, and the Jays may once again be a team you want to avoid starting arms against. The Braves, meanwhile, have become nearly respectable, and the Pirates have somewhat unexpectedly fallen off a cliff at the dish.

That drop-back for the Pirates includes a spike in strikeout rate, which may have them on the precipice of being a stream-worthy opponent.

Team	Season BB%	Season K%	30day BB%	30day K%	BB% change	K% change
Diamondbacks	7.4%	22.9%	6.9%	26.9%	-0.5%	4.0%
Pirates	8.5%	21.4%	7.3%	24.3%	-1.2%	2.9%
Rockies	8.1%	21.2%	9.0%	23.7%	0.9%	2.5%
White Sox	8.1%	21.7%	7.4%	23.5%	-0.7%	1.8%
Cubs	10.9%	22.0%	9.4%	23.7%	-1.5%	1.7%
Mariners	8.0%	19.8%	7.0%	21.5%	-1.0%	1.7%
Giants	9.2%	17.0%	8.3%	18.5%	-0.9%	1.5%
Rangers	6.9%	19.3%	6.5%	20.6%	-0.4%	1.3%
Royals	6.0%	19.5%	5.4%	20.7%	-0.6%	1.2%
Brewers	9.9%	25.4%	7.9%	25.7%	-2.0%	0.3%
Indians	8.1%	20.9%	6.6%	20.9%	-1.5%	0.0%
Angels	7.6%	15.7%	6.1%	15.4%	-1.5%	-0.3%
Orioles	7.8%	22.2%	6.8%	21.9%	-1.0%	-0.3%
Cardinals	9.0%	19.9%	9.5%	19.5%	0.5%	-0.4%
Marlins	7.5%	19.8%	7.3%	19.4%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Dodgers	8.9%	20.3%	8.9%	19.8%	0.0%	-0.5%
Reds	7.1%	22.6%	8.3%	22.0%	1.2%	-0.6%
Padres	7.3%	24.0%	8.7%	23.1%	1.4%	-0.9%
Rays	7.9%	24.6%	8.1%	23.7%	0.2%	-0.9%
Nationals	9.3%	20.0%	9.4%	18.9%	0.1%	-1.1%
Red Sox	9.0%	18.0%	9.4%	16.8%	0.4%	-1.2%
Phillies	6.4%	21.6%	5.7%	20.3%	-0.7%	-1.3%
Yankees	7.8%	18.5%	7.6%	17.2%	-0.2%	-1.3%
Twins	8.0%	22.6%	8.2%	21.2%	0.2%	-1.4%
Tigers	7.9%	22.1%	8.6%	20.6%	0.7%	-1.5%
Braves	7.3%	20.3%	6.5%	18.7%	-0.8%	-1.6%
Blue Jays	10.0%	21.3%	11.3%	19.5%	1.3%	-1.8%
Athletics	6.6%	18.0%	7.5%	15.9%	0.9%	-2.1%
Mets	8.5%	23.1%	7.2%	20.7%	-1.3%	-2.4%
Astros	10.2%	23.9%	11.2%	20.6%	1.0%	-3.3%

Various News and Notes
Injury update: Jameson Taillon is off to the DL with shoulder fatigue, which is very concerning with his history and likely puts an end to any thought the Pirates may eschew a workload limit this season; Jordan Zimmermann is heading there, too, due to a neck strain, opening up an opportunity for Dustin Molleken; Yordano Ventura will start Friday despite a sprained ankle and generally not being very good; The Twins will be without Trevor Plouffe for at least four weeks, and while the replacement options are a little underwhelming, Kennys Vargas is getting the call and was hitting well at Triple-A; Kris Bryant suffered a leg contusion colliding with Albert Almora Jr. but isn’t expected to miss time.

Awesomeness update: Expect Aaron Sanchez to be good, like, always now. He’s tied for the major-league lead in quality starts with 14 after fashioning eight one-run innings on Monday. It’s going to be a shame if the Jays actually stick to the plan and shift him back to the bullpen later rather than just managing his innings more conservatively. I get the idea, but they could be skipping the occasional start (they had a five-game week recently and opted not to), moving to a six-man rotation for small stretches (Marco Estrada may confused that right now), or just cutting his starts a little shorter. Conservative is fine…moving a 24-year-old with a sub-3 ERA and strong peripherals to the bullpen during a playoff race is too much for me. Your risk profile may vary, though.

The Yankees are moving Nathan Eovaldi and his enormous ERA-xFIP gap to the bullpen, where his 97 MPH gas should really play up. Chad Green gets the interim start – Eovaldi may return to the rotation after the break – and he’s put up some interesting numbers at Triple-A and in three major-league appearances this year.

The Mets will activate Jose Reyes today.

Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for today: Mike Foltynewicz @ PHI (Zach Eflin)
The Phillies, like the Braves, have ticked upward at the offensive end, hitting at almost a respectable level over the last month. But part of that is just regression given how extreme their early performance was, and this is still a team with a 78 wRC+ and 21.6-percent strikeout rate on the year. Mike Foltynewicz draws them today, and while his peripheral numbers aren’t particularly encouraging, his three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio should play well here.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Kevin Gausman @ LAD (Bud Norris)
The Dodgers have been hitting better of late and own a 91 wRC+ overall, tepid but not abhorrent, and they’re hitting for a bit more power at home (a .159 ISO vs. .143 on the road). Those are reasons to not be down about the Dodgers overall – they don’t mean they’re not a good streaming option. And Kevin Gausman is pitching fairly well, trimming his walk rate without sacrificing missed bats, and with just a 28-percent ownership tag.