Roto Riteup: July 5, 2013
With apologies to the late night games, today’s Roto Riteup was written before they concluded. Fireworks are cool.
On today’s agenda:
1. Dan Straily’s strong outing
2. A new place in the batting order for Elvis Andrus
3. Marcell Ozuna fills up the 5×5 line
Dan Straily’s strong outing
Yesterday Dan Straily held the visiting Chicago Cubs scoreless over seven innings. He allowed just one hit — though he did permit three walks. Straily struck out six on the day and had 11 swinging strikes on 87 pitches. He did receive some help in the form a strong outfield throw from Yoenis Cespedes to gun down (a jogging) Starlin Castro at the plate in the fourth inning. Straily is a fly ball pitcher and thus prone the occasional home run, though that issue is mitigated by his home park. If he is starting at home or in a fly-ball friendly ballpark, Straily makes for a solid stream option. He is available in over 90% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues 70% of CBS formats.
A new place in the batting order for Elvis Andrus
For those fantasy managers who own Andrus, it should be no surprise to hear that his real life manager, Ron Washington, has also noticed Andrus scuffling at the plate. Andrus is now hitting .241/.296/.283 and has just two extra-base hits — both doubles — in the past month. The Texas Rangers gave him plenty of time and plate appearances at the top of the batting order, however that patience has seemingly run out. Andrus hit eighth in yesterday’s game and will most likely see time there until he turns things around.
Perhaps the real cause of the struggles is his .286 BABIP is almost 30 points lower than his career average and we all know what a fickle thing BABIP can be. He is swinging outside of the zone a bit more this year, up to 26.1% versus a 23.1% career mark, though that could be attributed to him pressing at the plate as his frustrations mount. That being said, Andrus’ walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career numbers. Buying low on Andrus seems to be a good move. His BABIP should stabilize and return to career norms and there is nothing in his swing peripherals that would suggest any real worry. A scout could better break down Andrus’ swing and look for any mechanical flaws, though from where the present author is sitting (at a computer, naturally) the process appears intact. The results should follow shortly.
Marcell Ozuna fills up the 5×5 line
At the time of writing, Marcell Ozuna was 2-for-3 with a home run and a steal. That marks just his third home run and fifth steal of the year, though Ozuna does have a nice .291 batting average as well. Not everything is coming up Milhouse for him however, as his paltry 3.8% walk rate gives him a mere .322 OBP. Of course for someone who has never experienced Triple-A pitching, the 22-year-old Ozuna is more than holding his own. His full power potential is yet to be reached in the show, as he posted three consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs in the minors, though if and when it does Ozuna will be owned in every fantasy league. His home park and the lineup around him won’t do much for his power or counting numbers, but he still makes for an intriguing deep league play. Ozuna isn’t quite ready for standard 12-team mixed leagues just yet, however he should be owned in 14-team leagues and any NL-only format. He is currently owned in just 12% of Yahoo! leagues, 23% of ESPN formats, and 30% of CBS leagues. Standard 12-team mixed leaguers should add him to your watch list, as his power might translate sooner rather than later.
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Is it just the BABIP for Andrus? His ISO is also down .050 compared to most of the previous years (though I presume the slight walk rate decrease is either noise or simply within error bars). It seems like that’d also be a big deal.
Right, his slugging has tanked. His batted ball numbers don’t appear any different, though he is hitting a few more grounders. Ground balls have a higher BABIP (though lower xwOBA) than fly balls. I ran Andrus’ numbers through Bradley Woodrum’s SHH and it spit out that Andrus should be posting a 66 wRC+. You’re right; what little power Andrus has shown in the past isn’t showing at all this year.
With the day off I ran a quick check on something. For qualified batters (or batters on pace to qualify this year) since 1990, Andrus has the ninth lowest ISO of any player. His 2010 season where he posted a .036 ISO is the second lowest in 14 seasons…d and he had a .317 BABIP that year!
Of course there is a weak correlation between BABIP and ISO, but that 2010 season of his is just incredible to me. For fantasy purposes, I still like Andrus to bounce back. His 2010 season represents his low water mark (other than this year) in average, SLG, and wOBA. He’s coming off of two straight seasons of a .285 average and almost a .350 OBP. I’m buying him.