Reviewing Zach Sanders’ 2015 Bold Predictions

Despite being with FanGraphs since late 2009, 2015 marked the first season in which I entered my bold predictions for all the world to see. How’d I do? Let’s find out together.

1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
This prediction should come as no surprise after I ranked Kershaw first overall in the RotoGraphs Top 300. I don’t find this prediction to be bold, since Kershaw ranked second last year despite missing the first month of the season, but the reaction from the commentariat suggests that this prediction belongs here.

My end of season values have not been calculated yet, so this is technically still up in the air, and it’ll be close. Whether it’s true or not, I still feel good about this one; Kershaw’s numbers were worthy of a top selection.

1b. …but Max Scherzer will lead the NL in Ks
Sure, Kershaw will be the top dog, but Scherzer will still be the NL strikeout king.

Kershaw struck out 25 more batters than Scherzer to lead all of baseball with 301 Ks.

2. Matt Shoemaker will be a top-24 SP
I love me some Shoemaker. Not only were his numbers great last year, but he was also fun to watch. I’m not saying to pay for Shoemaker like a top-24 starter, but those are my expectations.

Yeah…about that. Shoemaker couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, and an early season dip in velocity doomed him.

3. Jay Bruce will be a top-24 OF
Bruce really struggled last year, but I believe in a bounceback season. The remainder of the RotoGraphs rankers averaged out to have Bruce 33rd, which raises to 37th if you take out Paul Sporer’s appropriately bullish ranking.

Maybe! But probably not! Bruce’s power did bounce back, but his average did not. He will likely grab out around the top-36, but not the top-24.

4. There will be four members of the 20/20 club
In 2012, there were 10 members of the 20/20 club. In 2013, there were seven. Last year, there were five members: Todd Frazier, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez, Brian Dozier, and Michael Brantley. I have that number dropping to four in 2015.

Perfection. There were exactly four members of the 20/20 club in 2015: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Manny Machado, and Ryan Braun.

5. Kennys Vargas will hit at least .260 with 20 HR
Vargas hit .274 and hit nine homers in 53 games last year, but he sported a .340 BABIP and struck out nearly 27% of the time. Steamer and ZiPS have him hitting .252 and .240, respectively, with only Steamer thinking he makes it to 20 homers. I have no real doubts that Vargas will get 20 dong-dongs, but the average is where this prediction will likely fall.

Vargas didn’t even hit 20 homers if you include his minor league numbers, and he hit .240 in 58 big league games.

6. Three Padres will record at least five saves (for the second straight year)
Last season, the Angels and Blue Jays joined the Padres with in the “three with five” club, while the White Sox had four players with five or more saves. Joaquin Benoit looks to be the closer to beat, but Brandon Maurer and Shawn Kelley were brought in this offseason for a reason. Whether Benoit gets hurt, traded, or just loses the job, I think saves will be up in the air for the Padres.

This ended up as a loss, but perhaps only because the Padres traded for Craig Kimbrel to hold down the ninth.

7. Rubby de la Rosa will have a WHIP of at least 1.50 as a starter
I don’t believe in Rubby as a starter. His career WHIP is 1.46, and combination of Steamer and ZiPS peg him at 1.37 — as both a starter and a reliever.

The projections were almost perfect: de la Rosa ended the year with a 1.36 WHIP over 188.2 innings. He’s still not a particularly good starter, but in this case he beat my expectations.

8. Phil Hughes will be the only Twins starter with an ERA under 4.00, but no starter will have an ERA over 5.00
Let’s assume, for the sake of this, that “Twins starter” means starting at least seven games and only using stats from their starts.

Three Twins starters had an ERA under 4.00, and none of them were named Phil Hughes. Ricky Nolasco, with his eight starts, also ruined the second part of the prediction.

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Report Card
Correct: 1
Maybe Correct: 1
Almost Certainly Not Correct: 1
Wrong: 6

I got one right in my first year, something David Wiers cannot say truthfully, and that fact is enough for me.